joebook -- the FanMan

updated keeper rankings -- QB

2006-07-29T21:03:00.000-07:00

QB
1. Peyton Manning -- 30 -- he's still the best, even with a shaky RB situation
2. Tom Brady -- 29 -- I'm worried about his WR situation, but he'll find a way
3. Eli Manning -- 25 -- if he gets his completion percentage up to 60%, he could be a superstar
4. Carson Palmer -- 26 -- he's moving well after a horrible knee injury
5. Matt Hasselback -- 31 -- he could be the #2 QB in 2006
6. Michael Vick -- 26 -- he's still 26, and he still runs
7. Donovan McNabb -- 29 -- needs a #1 WR to emerge from the pack
8. Ben Roethlisberger -- 24 -- stay off those bikes, kid
9. Daunte Culpepper -- 29 -- he has a great supporting cast, but he needs good health
10. Marc Bulger -- 29 -- risk or reward... can he stay on the field?
11. Jake Delhomme -- 31 -- watch the camp injury to Steve Smith carefully
12. Kurt Warner -- 35 -- if he can stay behind the wheel, he'll succeed
13. Byron Leftwich -- 26 -- Matt Jones is emerging as a star, and that can't hurt
14. Drew Brees -- 27 -- numbers slipped in 2005, and he doesn't have a stud WR
15. Aaron Brooks -- 30 -- he's worth a chance this year
16. Jake Plummer -- 31 -- Cutler won't push him until 2007
17. Drew Bledsoe -- 34 -- not a great keeper pick, but you'll love him this year
18. David Carr -- 27 -- I can't see him improving until the line does
19. Matt Leinart -- 23 -- he's in a great situation... now needs the keys to the Vette
20. Trent Green -- 36 -- 4000+ yards in the last three years... it won't be four
21. Alex Smith -- 22 -- if the 49ers retool, he'll be a stud in three years
22. Brett Favre -- 37 -- only playing to catch Marino now

23. Jay Cutler -- 23 -- he has a chance to be a superstar soon

24. Vince Young -- 23 -- 2007 starter for sure, maybe more

25. J.P. Losman -- 25 -- I still like his long term potential, but he might not have a job soon
26. Chad Pennington -- 30 -- If he's your starter, you are in trouble
27. Jon Kitna -- 34 -- Mike Martz might turn Kitna into a magician
28. Philip Rivers -- 24 -- has the tools and the toys
29. Rex Grossman -- 26 -- he could be a good QB2 in 2006
30. Charlie Frye -- 25 -- just lost Bentley and won't get Edwards back until week 7
31. Chris Simms -- 26 -- Gruden likes to run, and Simms is a QB
32. Mark Brunell -- 36 -- horrible keeper pick who might do well in 2006
33. Steve McNair -- 33 -- has been questionable or worse in 28 of his last 48 games
34. Brad Johnson -- 38 -- too old for keeper and not good enough for this year
35. Billy Volek -- 30 -- he could be a stud before Young takes over
36. Josh McCown -- 27 -- he puts up numbers when called upon
37. David Garrard -- 28 -- his running numbers pad his stats

38. Matt Schaub -- 25 -- will the Falcons give up on Vick?

39. Kyle Boller -- 25 -- will get a chance when McNair goes down
40. Brodie Croyle -- 23 -- might push Trent Green in 2007
41. Brian Griese -- 31 -- could be productive in an anemic Bears offense
42. Patrick Ramsey -- 27 -- backup to Pennington, which means he'll find the field
43. Kelly Holcomb -- 33 -- could be starting, but the Bills are awful
44. Joey Harrington -- 28 -- change of scenery good for him?
45. Jeff Garcia -- 36 -- he can still produce in spurts
46. Gus Frerotte -- 35 -- pass
47. Aaron Rodgers -- 22 -- has to wait another year
48. Tony Romo -- 26 -- Romo has a good arm and is waiting for a Bledsoe injury
49. Anthony Wright -- 30 -- watch him closely if Carson Palmer isn't ready
50. Jim Sorgi -- 25 -- best week 17 quarterback every year

Reggie Arrives

2006-07-29T20:50:00.000-07:00

The New Orleans Saints and Reggie Bush have agreed to a six-year deal that will pay the rookie RB nearly $27 million in guaranteed cash, and could be worth as much as $60 million over the life of the contract.

This squashes rumors that Bush was going to sit out the 2006 season and enter the 2007 NFL draft with hopes of being drafted by a team that would agree to his monetary needs. Bush never spoke about this rumor, but most people figured that he'd sign soon enough as not to miss any time.

It will be interesting to see what kind of playing time Bush receives. The knee of Deuce McAllister will be the main determining factor. If Deuce is healthy, the two could split carries this season, and Bush would take the role in '07. I'd have to believe that Deuce would play enough to show he still has some gas in the tank... the Saints would want to exhibit his trade potential.

Either way, Bush is in camp... stay tuned to that position battle.

LeCharles Bentley injured

2006-07-28T18:07:00.000-07:00

The first major injury has come over the camp wire, and it has more fantasy effect than you think.

Browns starting center LeCharles Bentley tore his patellar tendon during the team's first 11-on-11 drill at camp, potentially ending his season. Bentley signed with Cleveland in the offseason, and was excited about playing in his hometown.

The fantasy value of Reuben Droughns is thrown into question. He had a good 2005 season on the ground, racking up 1262 yards and catching 39 passes. The Browns worked hard to get him a better line to improve upon his 2005 total of two touchdowns. By trading Jeff Faine on draft day, the Browns are left with a large hole in the center of the line. They will be trying to pick up a center from free agency to fill the void.

Droughns isn't a top-20 RB this season, but his value might have slipped even farther down the list. If the Browns can keep their offense healthy, Droughns has a chance at 1200 yards again, but it isn't likely. He's a good RB2 in a deep league, but otherwise is not worth too much.

Brown asks for trade

2006-07-23T13:44:00.000-07:00

Titans RB Chris Brown requested a trade in a letter written to the team on July 17. Heading into the final year of his contract, Brown believes that he'd be better served with another team. "We feel there are a number of other places that would provide a significantly better fit as Chris heads into this contract year," said his agent, Ryan Morgan.

Since there are very few teams looking to acquire a starting RB, Brown's options might be thin. One possibility is the Jets, who have an ancient Curtis Martin and second-year back Cedric Houston listed as their #1 and #2.

I'm tired of players demanding trades without doing a little homework. Where could Brown go right now and become a starter? There are only a handful of teams, none of which offer the offensive potential of the Titans. With Billy Volek and Vince Young throwing to a good receiving corps, Tennessee could be a surprise team this year. While the backfield seems crowded, if Brown was so good, why couldn't he hold off LenDale White?

I say shut up and honor your contract.

best value -- WR

2006-07-17T16:19:00.000-07:00

Several big name receivers changed teams in the offseason, including Terrell Owens to the Cowboys and Javon Walker to Denver. Neither guy will be on this list, which highlights the best value picks. Somebody will take Walker too high without thinking of the effects of a major knee injury. Owens is a special player when on the field, but not worth the high pick due to risk of idiotic behavior. These guys are worth the risk.

1. Reggie Brown -- Philadelphia Eagles -- With Owens off to Dallas, Brown steps in as the #1 target of a healthy Donovan McNabb. He had a decent rookie season, racking up 69 or more yards in five of his last eight games, and scored four TD over that span. Second-year WR usually have a mild statistical bump, and Brown could get to 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. He's a nice value pick about 25-30 WR into the draft.

2. Muhsin Muhammad -- Chicago Bears -- I know that he's 33 and coming off a bad season, but Muhammad is still the clear #1 target in Chicago. The Bears had a terrible offense last season, but if Rex Grossman gets hurt this year, they have Brian Griese to fall back on. Even with the putrid numbers offered by the Bears passing game, Muhammad still caught 64 passes in 14 games. Look for that number to increase to 80, and pick him after about 30 WR have been selected.

3. Randy Moss -- Oakland Raiders -- It's strange to list him here, but Moss had a bad 2005 season and still ended up with 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. He has a new chucker in Aaron Brooks, and he should be injury-free. Since I don't envision LaMont Jordan catching 70 passes again, Moss could return to 85-1300-11, making him a top-5 WR. Somebody will probably pick him too high, but if he falls out of the top-35 overall, grab him if you can.

4. Antonio Bryant -- San Francisco 49ers -- The 49ers offense is rebuilding around Alex Smith, and Bryant will be his primary target this year. He's coming off a 1000 yard season, and he's been improving his game every year. Bryant loses points for being with a team that nearly had the worst offense in NFL history last season, but with Vernon Davis and another year of experience for Smith, Bryant could surprise people now. Pick him up if 35 WR are gone and you need a WR3.

5. Troy Williamson -- Minnesota Vikings -- Williamson can fly, as evidenced by his receptions last year of 56, 53 and 36 yards... now he needs someone to throw to him. If Brad Johnson stays healthy, Williamson could enjoy a stellar sophomore season in the NFL. He's already the best receiver on the roster, and he can take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Williamson hasn't been one of the top-40 WR drafted on any board I've seen, making him a great value pick.

best value -- RB

2006-07-10T17:05:00.000-07:00

Even though running back is the most scarce of the fantasy positions, there are still good value buys late in drafts. Several of the big name RB have missed time due to injury, and their backups have won games for studious fantasy owners. While some choose to draft the second string back to their starter, others select young reserves waiting for a chance. Here are the best buys at RB, regardless of status.

1. LenDale White -- Tennessee Titans -- People have knocked his work ethic, his weight, his drive... but nobody questions his talent. At the worst, he'll be the short-yardage back, and he might take the starting job if Chris Brown is injured or ineffective. With Vince Young and White, the Titans offense should have two stud performers for several years. White will fall 40+ backs into a traditional draft, but in keeper leagues you should draft him no later than the 30-35 range, and in the top-100 overall.

2. Kevin Jones -- Detroit Lions -- After rushing for more than 900 yards in his last eight games of 2004, many people had Jones pegged as the next franchise fantasy back. Wow, was that a mistake. Jones flopped terribly, finishing '05 with only 664 yards and never reaching 100 in a single week. He converted only one out of seven carries from the 1-yard line, and he's not a good receiver. So why is he on this list? The Lions have a new offensive guru in Mike Martz and have upgraded the QB situation. Jones should finally be healthy, and he won't be pushed by rookie Brian Calhoun just yet. You'll be able to pick up Jones about 20 backs into the draft, and that's a great gamble.

3. Chris Perry -- Cincinnati Bengals -- Rudi Johnson doesn't miss much time, but Perry has already carved his niche as the third down receiving back. Perry caught 51 passes last year in limited time. He's not as big as Johnson, but he's quicker and can take it to the house every time he touches the ball. If Johnson gets injured, Perry would step in as a top-15 RB. That's unlikely to happen, so pick Perry as one of the first reserves and hope that he gets a chance.

4. Cedric Benson -- Chicago Bears -- The Bears gave Benson a large contract and expected him to give large contributions in 2005. The problem? Thomas Jones was busy having a career year, compiling almost 1500 total yards and nine touchdowns. Benson might not start the season as the #1 guy, but by midseason he'll be a fantasy stud. The Bears have no passing offense to speak of, but that didn't stop Jones last year. Benson will fall at least 30 RB into the draft, and anytime after that would be a great time to steal him.

5. The 3rd overall pick -- Whoever ends up with the 3rd pick in your draft automatically has the best value pick of the first round. Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander are locks to fill the first three spots, but their position will be argued until draft night. Drafting any one of them makes your team a force to start the night, but the owner sitting on #3 is the winner of this situation. He has no pressure, as he'll draft whoever is left of the big three, and he'll get a player who would be drafted #1 in any other season. If you draw #3, you're in great shape.

best value -- QB

2006-07-08T21:45:00.000-07:00

There are several players each year who prove to be worth much more than the slot they were drafted in. Quarterbacks are the most difficult to project, as they get injured more than any other position. There aren't many QB changes in the middle of the season without an injury to the starter, so here are the guys who will prove to be a good value if they stay healthy.

1. Carson Palmer -- Cincinnati Bengals -- His knee injury is the only reason he lands on this list. Many drafters are listing Tom Brady, Matt Hasselback and even Donovan McNabb in front of Palmer, but none of them are larger fantasy threats. Even if Palmer's knee isn't 100% to start the season, he'll be full strength for the second half and the fantasy playoffs and with Chad Johnson and Rudi Johnson on his side, he'll be a superstar again. If he's still on the board after 40 players are gone, make him your next pick.

2. Jake Delhomme -- Carolina Panthers -- He seems to slip through the cracks while owners focus on bigger names, but Delhomme has averaged more than 3500 yards and 24 TD passes over the last three seasons. With Carolina adding Keyshawn Johnson to pull attention away from Steve Smith, and DeAngelo Williams to make a solid backfield, Delhomme should produce another season of similar numbers. If 9-12 QB are drafted and Delhomme is still available, he's a huge steal.

3. Billy Volek -- Tennessee Titans -- With all eyes on Vince Young, people forget that it's Volek who will start the season as the #1 QB in the Music City. In his 517 career attempts, which is a full season's worth of passes, he's thrown for 3505 yards and 26 touchdowns. He should hold off Young for quite some time, and might even play out the season. The Titans have many good players on offense, including receivers Drew Bennett, David Givens and Tyrone Calico. Volek probably won't be one of the first 25 QB picked, so scoop him up as an inexpensive #2 and you'll be happy.

4. Aaron Brooks -- Oakland Raiders -- I know you hate him, and after last season, you have the right to... but don't hold a grudge. Brooks signed with the Raiders, giving him a fresh start with an offense featuring two superstars in Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan. Brooks had thrown for more than 3500 yards and 20 TD in each season between 2001-04, so success hasn't disappeared into the sunset yet. He's only 30, and has scored 10 rushing TD in the last four seasons. If you can look past 2005 and pick him up about 15-18 QB into the draft, you'll be rewarded deeply.

5. Josh McCown -- Detroit Lions -- He'll probably begin the year behind Jon Kitna, but don't forget about McCown. His career numbers don't support it, but McCown can do a lot of damage if given the chance. In six starts last year, he compiled 1675 yards and nine touchdown passes. Over a full season, that equates to 4400-22. With Kevin Jones and a trio of top WR at his disposal, McCown just needs to crack the lineup. While he won't be drafted in most leagues, keep an eye on the situation in Detroit, and if Kitna falters, jump on McCown immediately.

most overrated -- WR

2006-06-29T20:57:00.000-07:00

The big names like Moss, Owens and Harrison have been replaced by Smith, Johnson and Fitzgerald. The veterans are beginning to move aside to the youth movement. There seems to be a growing gap between the elite WR and the middle of the pack. The problem is that nobody knows which WR will emerge as a star year to year. Last year, it was Steve Smith, who came off a major injury to lead many owners to titles. Who will it be in 2006? Not these guys...

1. Marvin Harrison -- Indianapolis Colts -- You're probably wondering how I can include a guy who has produced 1100+ yards and 10+ TD for the last seven seasons. My logic is simple. Harrison's receptions have declined for three straight seasons, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he didn't lead the team in catches. Reggie Wayne is younger and bigger, and will become Peyton Manning's favorite target this year. Harrison has been among the top-6 WR selected for a long time -- this is the year to break that trend.

2. Santana Moss -- Washington Redskins -- The huge numbers that Moss put up in 2005 (84-1483-9) were a direct result of Mark Brunell's fantastic season. Since Brunell isn't likely to go off again, everyone suffers. Keep in mind that Moss was coming of a season of 45-838-5 with the Jets. I have a hard time trusting Moss to repeat last season, but he could fall somewhere in between '04 and '05. If that's worth a top-10 pick to you, go crazy... but it isn't to me.

3. Laveranues Coles -- New York Jets -- He's following the Derrick Mason career path perfectly. Coles has caught 334 passes over the last four seasons, but has only scored 17 times. His big play ability has vanished, and the quarterback situation in Jetland doesn't bode well for receivers. He's durable and works hard, but I've yet to see a league reward those two traits. Someone will draft him too high because they figure he has to put up a 10+ TD season soon. They are wrong.

4. David Givens -- Tennessee Titans -- Givens has been a solid performer for the last two seasons, but when the Titans gave him a five-year contract, the fantasy world anointed him as a player to watch. Don't watch too closely. Givens doesn't do anything great, and his fantasy numbers won't approach elite status as long as he's being pushed by Brandon Jones and Tyrone Calico, both of whom are younger and bigger. This won't be the year to stock up on Titans.

5. Anyone from Detroit -- Roy Williams is the only one who has had success in the past, as he's caught 16 TD in his first two years in the league... but he's a jerk, and can't stay healthy for an entire season. Neither can Charles Rogers, who has played 15 games in three seasons. Mike Williams is interesting, but he didn't look good as a rookie and he'll be fighting for playing time. You can forget about Corey Bradford or Mike Furrey.

most overrated -- RB

2006-06-29T12:43:00.000-07:00

There aren't many RB that didn't have their situation altered in some way during the offseason. Several top backs lost key members of their offense or changed teams, and others had off-field problems. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player because of his name or recent history. Do the homework and find the bargain buys. These guys are not the bargain buys.

1. Tiki Barber -- New York Giants -- He was one of my bust picks last year, and he produced one of the best yardage seasons in NFL history. That means he'll automatically be ranked too high. He's 31 now, and his workload has increased each of the last three seasons, including 411 touches last year. That's too many for an older back, and this is the year he starts to break down. Many publications have him as the #4 or #5 overall player... I think you can do better by trading down for more value.

2. Corey Dillon -- New England Patriots -- Dillon turned in a good season last year when he was on the field, scoring 12 TD in 12 games. His overall fantasy numbers looked good, but they masked the truth. He averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and his effectiveness in short yardage situations declined. The Pats drafted Laurence Maroney to take his place, and that might happen this year. Dillon will still be the goal line back, but if you are looking for a good starter, look somewhere else. If you do pick Dillon, make sure to back him up with Maroney.

3. Ron Dayne -- Denver Broncos -- Mike Shanahan says that Dayne is his #1 guy right now. Don't believe that will last long. Dayne hasn't made a habit of being very good, and his 3.7 yards per carry career average won't cut it in Denver. With Tatum Bell waiting to erupt as a superstar, I can't see how Shanahan will give more than 5-10 carries per game to Dayne. That being said, it is Denver, and anything can happen...

4. T.J. Duckett -- Atlanta Falcons -- With any luck, the Falcons will trade Duckett to someone who can give him more carries. He has a terrible yards per carry average, and he's not good catching passes out of the backfield. He does have 31 career TD in 54 games, but someone always looks at his freakish body and touchdown totals and picks him too high. Usually I'm that person, but not this year. With draft pick Jerious Norwood on board, and Warrick Dunn signed to an extension, Duckett's role appears to be diminishing. Draft him late and hope he gets dealt.

5. Willis McGahee -- Buffalo Bills -- It's hard to put him here, seeing that he's rushed for almost 2400 yards in his first two seasons. I just don't like what Buffalo is doing on the offensive side of the ball. They had a chance to get a better WR to complement Lee Evans, and ended up with Peerless Price. Unless this is 2002 all over again, the Price thing won't be too successful. With problems at QB and an average offensive line, McGahee's numbers could plateau at about 1400-1500 total yards and 6-8 TD. That's not too bad, but he's not a top-10 choice with those numbers. If he's your RB1, make sure your #2 is strong.

most overrated -- QB

2006-06-28T21:26:00.000-07:00

I'm leaving Mike Vick off this list for one reason: he's NOT overrated. Vick finished in the top-8 in many leagues. The knock is that he's a bad passer, which is true. He'll frustrate you to death with his 11-27 119yds 0TD 2INT games... but his legs make him a true weapon. He finished with almost 600 yards rushing and six TD; only David Carr surpassed 300 yards rushing, and Ben Roethlisberger ranked second in TD with three. Vick is one of the few players who can win a week for you by himself, which makes him special. If you can put up with the bad weeks, the good ones will be that much better.

These guys are the most overrated fantasy QB this year:

1. Peyton Manning -- Indianapolis Colts -- This probably looks crazy, but he's overrated. Several major publications last season had him as one of the top-5 overall picks, and he didn't even turn out to be the #1 QB. With the loss of Edgerrin James, defenses can focus more on the passing game. He will be the first QB drafted in almost every league, but there are much better value options. Don't get me wrong -- he's still Peyton Manning and he'll probably finish with 4000+ yards and 30+ TD, but if you draft him before a RB in the first round, you are nuts.

2. Donovan McNabb -- Philadelphia Eagles -- He was still a very good QB before Terrell Owens, but many will still rank him in the top-5 and he doesn't deserve it. He has no proven receivers and with injuries mounting, his running game will be diminished. McNabb will have to prove that the events of 2005 are in the past and that he can succeed again without a true #1 WR. I'm not expecting big things this year, and you shouldn't draft him in the top-6 QB.

3. Mark Brunell -- Washington Redskins -- Brunell started the season on fire, throwing 12 TD in his first five starts, but in his last seven games, he never made it to 200 yards. People will look at his total numbers (3050 yards, 23 TD) and think that he's a viable fantasy starter, but he isn't. He's 35 years old, has a history of injuries and several average receivers. If he stays healthy, he'll frustrate you by falling apart late in the season again. Hope that he gets hurt to save you the heartache... or just don't draft him.

4. Jon Kitna -- Detroit Lions -- I think that Josh McCown is a better QB than Kitna, but the Lions will go with the veteran to start the season. Experts are giddy about the Detroit offense with a trio of first round receivers, and budding star RB Kevin Jones. This should make Kitna a good fit, right? Wrong. He hasn't played much since 2003, and he'll be 34 this year. Kitna was never a superstar, and his career numbers aren't impressive at all. With McCown knocking on the door, Kitna's stay at the top could be short. Draft him only as a QB2 and watch the situation.

5. Chad Pennington -- New York Jets -- Why does everyone believe that Pennington will be good again, even if he's healthy? The Jets feature a 71-year-old RB (Curtis Martin) and two average receivers in Laveraneus Coles and Justin McCareins. Plus, they traded for Patrick Ramsey and drafted Kellen Clemens in the second round this year. Even if he can stay on the field, you won't get a reliable fantasy starter. If you must draft him, make it late and be sure that your starter isn't injury prone.

sleeper picks -- WR

2006-06-25T20:05:00.000-07:00

With receivers like Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt still near the top of the rankings, fantasy owners aren't looking as much to the young studs to fill their roster spots. Rookie receivers are almost always useless, and it's a well-proven theory that a WR doesn't blossom until their third year. These guys will blossom this year, whether it's their third or not...

1. Reggie Wayne -- Indianapolis Colts -- Many people don't know that Wayne actually led the Colts in receptions last year with 83. Marvin Harrison is 34 and getting slower by the year, so this is the season that Wayne takes over as the true #1 in Indy. He will at least return to 2004's numbers of 77-1210-12 and might make it to 90-100 catches this season, as the Colts will throw more with the absence of Edgerrin James. Make it a point to draft Wayne about 15 WR in, and you'll love his production.

2. Andre Johnson -- Houston Texans -- Johnson was awful for most of last season, battling leg injuries and watching QB David Carr get mauled behind a terrible offensive line. The scheme gets an upgrade, and the line is improved, so Johnson should return to being the budding fantasy stud he was in 2004, when he put up 79 catches and more than 1100 yards. Eric Moulds will prove to be a nice decoy, so grab Johnson and hope that Carr has enough time to throw the ball.

3. Nate Burleson -- Seattle Seahawks -- Burleson was another guy with huge expectations put on him for 2005, and he failed miserably. He was never the same after an early season knee injury, but the only time he had more than 50 yards in a game was week 17. Seattle will make him their #2 receiver next to an injury-prone Darrell Jackson. If his knee is healthy and he learns the offense, Burleson could return to star status with 70-1000-8. He'll be a forgotten man on draft day, but don't make that mistake.

4. Ernest Wilford/Matt Jones -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- With Jimmy Smith gone, Wilford and Jones will fight for the eye of Byron Leftwich. Wilford is the better receiver, Jones the better athlete. Wilford should prove early that he'll make the big catches and can get tough first downs, but Jones is bigger and faster. One of them should end up at around 75-1100-8, so watch to see who emerges as the #1 going into the season. The other isn't a bad pick either...

5. Mark Clayton -- Baltimore Ravens -- I know he's only in his second season, but he has a ton of talent and with Steve McNair throwing the ball, he could explode into a superstar this year. He has great speed and hands, and needs opportunities opposite Derrick Mason to maximize his talent. If Jamal Lewis can get back on track, Clayton's deep routes could materialize into many home runs. Don't let him slip too far, but he's not ready to be a #1 WR yet... maybe in 2007.

sleeper picks -- RB

2006-06-22T21:40:00.000-07:00

Shaun Alexander lost his best lineman. LaDainian Tomlinson lost his quarterback. Larry Johnson hasn't played a full season. Tiki Barber is 31 years old. Moral of the story? The top RB this year all have tiny little concerns. These sleeper RB make good value picks in case you can't get your hands on the big dogs.

1. Domanick Davis -- Houston Texans -- Ok... I know he's not really a sleeper, but when the Texans passed on Reggie Bush, Davis became a great fantasy option again. He won't be among the first eight RB drafted, but his numbers are excellent when he's on the field. He averaged more than 119 total yards per game in his 11 starts last season and scored 14 TD in 2004. His durability issues are a concern, but if he can keep his health for 16 games, he should be a top-10 RB.

2. Chester Taylor -- Minnesota Vikings -- He could be 2006's version of Lamont Jordan. He can run, catch and block, and the Vikes have given him the starting job. He was productive as the reserve to Jamal Lewis over the last few seasons, and caught 91 passes in the last three seasons as a backup. If the Vikings offense can come together, Taylor could be a huge surprise. At worst, he'll get 15-18 touches per game and finish in the top-25 fantasy RB. The best case scenario is 1600 total yards and 10 TD. You should still be able to get him about 18-22 RB into the draft, at which point he'll be a huge asset to your team.

3. Tatum Bell -- Denver Broncos -- Everyone seemed to think 2005 was Bell's year to become the next stud in Denver. He spelled Mike Anderson well and averaged 5.3 yards per carry on his 173 attempts, but he never got a chance to take over the job. He'll battle Ron Dayne this year, but 2006 will be a different story, as Bell will become the starter early. In 248 career carries, he has 1317 yards and 11 TD. That should be close to his final numbers for this year. His stock will never be lower, so grab him this year and enjoy.

4. Jamal Lewis -- Baltimore Ravens -- This is the major risk/reward pick of the list. Lewis was bad last year, as he failed to reach 1000 yards and only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. The Ravens made it a point to sign Lewis to a huge contract, and let Chester Taylor go to the Vikings to eliminate the competition. Lewis is still only 27 years old and has 55-year-old Mike Anderson as his backup, so he'll have a chance to rebound. Grab him about 20 RB into the draft and look for 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns as he becomes this year's biggest surprise.

5. Frank Gore -- San Francisco 49ers -- I like what the Niners are doing with the offense. Alex Smith won't be a great player for a few more seasons, but by drafting freak TE Vernon Davis in the first round, they are showing commitment to the offense. Gore should be the starter this year, and build on a very solid 2005 season, in which he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and ran for 255 yards in the last three weeks of the season. Gore is a great option as RB3, and should make his way into your starting lineup around midseason.

sleeper picks -- QB

2006-06-19T19:29:00.000-07:00

These are my top-5 quarterbacks who will surprise owners with a solid season. Several rookies last year planted the seed for 2006, and with stars like Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb facing question marks, you might find better value by waiting and grabbing one of these guys.

1. Kurt Warner -- Arizona Cardinals -- Warner has only played in 22 games in the last three seasons, but if he can stay on the field in 2006, he'll have a fantastic chance to be a top-6 QB this year. With Edgerrin James in the backfield, the Cards finally have a running threat to complement stud receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's the biggest risk/reward pick at the position this year, but I'll take the chance about 12 QB into the draft.

2. David Carr -- Houston Texans -- Carr has frustrated ambitious owners who are looking for him to become the next version of Peyton Manning. He took a big step backwards last year, but with the addition of Eric Moulds and help coming to the offensive line, he should return to numbers similar to the 2004 season, when he threw for more than 3500 yards. He's a good player to draft as a backup and hope he blossoms into good trade bait. He's a good pick about 16-20 QB into the draft.

3. Charlie Frye -- Cleveland Browns -- If he wins the job outright, he could make some waves. His season will depend on the health of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. If they can play without too much pain or loss of ability, Frye will have two huge, excellent weapons. Joe Jurevicius is also big, and broke through with 10 TD last year. If the running game can be consistent, Frye is a good pick for 2006, and a great one for 2007.

4. Phillip Rivers -- San Diego Chargers -- Rivers will try to replace Drew Brees, who threw 51 TD in the last two seasons. He will start the season without competition, and he should have a good season, if only because he has LaDainian Tomlinson behind him and Antonio Gates to throw to. Rivers has only thrown 30 passes as a pro, but he should be ready to take charge of a very good offense. He's another good value pick as a QB2, and has a good chance to sneak into the top-15.

5. Chris Simms -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Simms didn't light up the world last year in 10 starts for the Bucs, but he will improve this season as the running game matures and his younger receivers get more reps. Cadillac Williams looked like a superstar last season, and he'll help give Simms openings to throw. He'll be a surprise if he can stay healthy enough to utilize the skills of Joey Galloway and revive Michael Clayton. He won't be one of the top-20 QB on draft day, but pick him as your backup and watch him become a solid player.

Ben Roethlisberger

2006-06-15T11:10:00.000-07:00

By now, most of you know the story. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger crashed his motorcycle on Monday, causing multiple facial fractures and lacerations in other places. He was released from the hospital Wednesday night, and doctors are confident he'll make a full recovery.

Most of you have also read that Roethlisberger publicly admits to riding his motorcycle without a helmet, which is legal in the state of Pennsylvania. He's been criticized by many, including the media and Steelers great Terry Bradshaw, who stated, "Ride it when you retire."

You want my opinion? Get off his back.

For what it's worth, he's still a 24-year-old kid. He still wants to live life to the fullest and thinks he's invincible. That all sounds like a load of crap, and it probably is, but that's his mindset. If he wants to ride without a helmet, who am I to chastise him? We've all done dumb things...

You might say that if you were in his shoes, you'd do everything you could to make sure your career isn't jeopardized... and you'd be lying. Everyone takes risks every day without knowing it. Does it make it more of a risk because Roethlisberger was aware of it? I say no.

I know what the response to this is, too: he's a Super Bowl champion quarterback with all the money one would ever need and a bright future; why isn't he protecting himself? My answer is: why do you care? Do you drive the speed limit and take protection whenever you are on the road? Do you eat the most healthy food whenever you go out? Do you wear condoms?

In other words, let the man do what he wants, and accept the fact that he'll live with the consequences. Funny thing is, he's the only one not complaining.

technical difficulties

2006-06-15T10:57:00.000-07:00

After several days of technical issues, I'm back online. As the season nears, I'll be updating rankings, along with providing spotlights on individual players aiming for a breakout season.

the big 100

2006-06-12T12:38:00.000-07:00

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC
2. Shaun Alexander RB SEA
3. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC
4. Clinton Portis RB WAS
5. Edgerrin James RB ARI
6. Steven Jackson RB STL
7. Carnell Williams RB TBB
8. Ronnie Brown RB MIA
9. Rudi Johnson RB CIN
10. Lamont Jordan RB OAK
11. Reggie Bush RB NOS
12. Willis McGahee RB BUF
13. Julius Jones RB DAL
14. Peyton Manning QB IND
15. Domanick Davis RB HOU
16. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
17. Steve Smith WR CAR
18. Tiki Barber RB NYG
19. Chad Johnson WR CIN
20. Terrell Owens WR DAL
21. Chris Brown RB TEN
22. Kevin Jones RB DET
23. Willie Parker RB PIT
24. Brian Westbrook RB PHI
25. Cedric Benson RB CHI
26. Anquan Boldin WR ARI
27. Torry Holt WR STL
28. Laurence Maroney RB NEP
29. Antonio Gates TE SDC
30. Reggie Wayne WR IND
31. Jamal Lewis RB BAL
32. Tom Brady QB NEP
33. Chris Chambers WR MIA
34. Tatum Bell RB DEN
35. Hines Ward WR PIT
36. Randy Moss WR OAK
37. Chester Taylor RB MIN
38. DeShaun Foster RB CAR
39. Andre Johnson WR HOU
40. Eli Manning QB NYG
41. Carson Palmer QB CIN
42. DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
43. Marvin Harrison WR IND
44. Jeremy Shockey TE NYG
45. Reuben Droughns RB CLE
46. Plaxico Burress WR NYG
47. Santana Moss WR WAS
48. Warrick Dunn RB ATL
49. Matt Hasselback QB SEA
50. Roy Williams WR DET
51. Darrell Jackson WR SEA
52. Michael Vick QB ATL
53. Donovan McNabb QB PHI
54. Jason Witten TE DAL
55. Deion Branch WR NEP
56. Deuce McAllister RB NOS
57. Donte Stallworth WR NOS
58. Heath Miller TE PIT
59. T.J. Duckett RB ATL
60. Lee Evans WR BUF
61. Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
62. Frank Gore RB SFO
63. Ahman Green RB GBP
64. Corey Dillon RB NEP
65. Todd Heap TE BAL
66. Braylon Edwards WR CLE
67. Daunte Culpepper QB MIA
68. Marc Bulger QB STL
69. Tony Gonzalez TE KCC
70. Thomas Jones RB CHI
71. Fred Taylor RB JAX
72. Joseph Addai RB IND
73. Jake Delhomme QB CAR
74. Kurt Warner QB ARI
75. Kellen Winslow TE CLE
76. Javon Walker WR DEN
77. Ernest Wilford WR JAX
78. Chris Cooley TE WAS
79. Laveranues Coles WR NYJ
80. Chris Perry RB CIN
81. Reggie Brown WR PHI
82. Byron Leftwich QB JAX
83. Drew Brees QB SDC
84. Alge Crumpler TE ATL
85. T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR CIN
86. Ron Dayne RB DEN
87. LenDale White RB TEN
88. Mewelde Moore RB MIN
89. L.J. Smith TE PHI
90. Antonio Bryant WR SFO
91. Donald Driver WR GBP
92. Jake Plummer QB DEN
93. Drew Bledsoe QB DAL
94. Vernon Davis TE SFO
95. Drew Bennett WR TEN
96. Nate Burleson WR SEA
97. Lee Suggs RB CLE
98. Cedric Houston RB NYJ
99. David Carr QB HOU
100. Derrick Mason WR BAL

the big 100 preface

2006-06-12T12:18:00.000-07:00

Every year about this time, I draft my top-100 players in a performance/keeper league. As I was running through the guys this year, I noticed much more uncertainty in the middle of the list than usual. Never has my top-100 included a kicker, and this year is no different. During every draft I've been involved with, someone takes a kicker about 70-80 players in, and I end up with a better kicker drafted in the 15th round. I picked up Neil Rackers last season about 220 players into one draft.

Moral of the story: fill your skill positions first, then look to the booters.

WARNING -- I don't include defenses in my top-100 because almost every league has a different scoring system for the D -- look for my defensive rankings soon.

WARNING II -- The top-100 is different from a mock draft. This is the list of who you should draft if your pick is regardless of position. It's truly the top-100 fantasy players. A mock draft takes into consideration which players have already been drafted, and uses actual strategy to complete. The joebook.blogspot.com mock draft will be out in July.

2006 keeper league rankings -- TE

2006-06-06T13:00:00.000-07:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league TE rankings as of the beginning of June. The draft produced some interesting situations, and several rookies could be immediate contributors. If your league requires a starting tight end, you'll want to have someone in the top-8 to rely on every week. If not, then it depends on your scoring system.

TE
1. Antonio Gates -- 26 -- the only question is how high to draft him... if you league requires a starting TE, take him early and don't listen to the critics of Phillip Rivers
2. Jeremy Shockey -- 26 -- as long as the running game in New York stays productive, Shockey will have another great season... he's quickly becoming Eli Manning's favorite target
3. Jason Witten -- 24 -- Is it possible that Terrell Owens will be used as a decoy for Witten in the red zone? They'll both get their catches, but Witten could take the next step in 2006 and become a 1000yd, 10 TD tight end
4. Heath Miller -- 24 -- I really like Miller's chances to score 10+ touchdowns this year, because with the retirement of Jerome Bettis, Big Ben will be looking for a red zone target... draft him to use every week
5. Todd Heap -- 26 -- much like Chad Johnson, it doesn't seem to matter to Heap who is throwing the ball... I'd still like his value better if Steve McNair shows up in Baltimore
6. Tony Gonzalez -- 30 -- he's the #1 receiving option in the KC offense, and with the emergence of Larry Johnson, that could mean many catches and less touchdowns... watch the odometer and bid accordingly
7. Kellen Winslow -- 23 -- all signs point to a healthy return, but he really won't be 100% until the 2007 season... you'll never get him cheaper, so spend money on him now and thank me next year
8. Chris Cooley -- 24 -- great possession guy who carved a niche last year going over the middle and getting yards in the red zone... look for more of the same in 2006
9. Alge Crumpler -- 28 -- his numbers don't figure to improve much unless Mike Vick can spread the ball around more... teams know he looks to Crumpler exclusively in the red zone and on third-and-short situations... that being said, 65 catches and six touchdowns isn't bad
10. L.J. Smith -- 26 -- he could gain back the red zone touchdowns that were lost to Terrell Owens, but I'm trusting him less after he didn't show up big last year when handed the job
11. Vernon Davis -- 22 -- could be the next big thing at TE, but it might take some time... he'll quickly become Alex Smith's favorite target, but you should invest more for the long term
12. Randy McMichael -- 27 -- if he can keep himself in line with the law, and if Culpepper is healthy, and if, and if, and if... he'll give you numbers and headaches, not necessarily in that order
13. Jerramy Stevens -- 27 -- came on strong at the end of 2005, and if he continues that pace into this year, he'll be a top-5 TE... he's my top sleeper to explode this year
14. Dallas Clark -- 27 -- I fell in love with Clark in 2004 and made him my #1 TE sleeper for 2005... I won't make that mistake this year. The Colts throw to several tight ends, and none will make it to 55 catches, but Clark is still the best of the bunch.
15. Ben Troupe -- 24 -- might lose time to Erron Kinney, but considering they combined for 110 catches last season, he'll still get touches... he's the preferred TE in the red zone, so his season numbers will be better than Kinney's
16. Ben Watson -- 25 -- who knows if the starting TE will be Watson, Daniel Graham, Mike Vrabel... but Watson is the best and fastest of the crew... if he emerges as the starter, he's a great #2 TE, borderline #1
17. Joe Klopfenstein -- 22 -- the Rams traded Brandon Manumaleuna, so it's between Klop and Dominique Byrd for the job... Klop will win it and has a legit shot at offensive rookie of the year if he stays healthy
18. Jeb Putzier -- 27 -- for some reason, I've changed my tune on Putz... he'll have job security in an offense with rising stars, so he could be another deep sleeper to breakout
19. Alex Smith -- 24 -- he'll be in a battle with Anthony Becht, but he shouldn't be... Smith is clearly the better player, and if he gets a chance, he could have a nice season
20. Jermaine Wiggins -- 31 -- the years are catching up to him, but he's still averaged 70 catches over the last two seasons... too bad he can't get in the end zone; otherwise, he'd be 12 spots higher
21. Erron Kinney -- 29 -- the Titans seem to like Ben Troupe in the red zone, and he has less mileage, so this could be the year Kinney slips to a true second string end
22. Marcedes Lewis -- 22 -- he's better than Kyle Brady right now, but my opinion doesn't mean anything... if he gets to start, he could surprise
23. Courtney Anderson -- 26 -- Aaron Brooks said to the media that he's excited about throwing to Anderson, but who knows... he really has no competition, so he has to produce something, right?
24. Leonard Pope -- 23 -- the big rookie from Georgia has a chance to become the starting end on opening day, with only the underachieving Eric Edwards in his way... if he gets the job, he's not a bad option because of the firepower of the Arizona offense
25. Doug Jolley -- 27 -- if he holds off Chris Baker, he could have a good season given Chad Pennington's health... seeing that Chad isn't a given, draft at your own risk
26. Daniel Graham -- 28 -- the Pats love him in the red zone, but he didn't do anything else last year... and he probably will catch 25 passes and score five touchdowns, which isn't good for you
27. Bubba Franks -- 28 -- Favre is back, and Franks should be healthy, so look for more of the same: low catch numbers but a bunch of touchdowns
28. Reggie Kelly -- 29 -- if the Bengals are serious about throwing more passes his way, you could have a good backup TE... don't bet on it, though
29. Tony Scheffler -- 23 -- if he performs well in the preseason, he should push Stephen Alexander for the job... he's a big tight end who could fit nicely in the offense
30. Robert Royal -- 27 -- another fantasy backup who probably won't do enough to warrant a starting spot, just like most of the guys ranked between 25-35
31. Zach Hilton -- 26 -- he's a giant man who only has to beat Ernie Conwell to be a starter, but that doesn't automatically mean success... keep an eye on his situation
32. Desmond Clark -- 29 -- I'm not confident in the Bears offense, so I'm not going to draft Clark, and I'm saying you shouldn't either
33. Eric Edwards -- 26 -- Leonard Pope was drafted by the Cardinals, but Edwards is expected to be the starter, at least for the first half of the season... I wouldn't spend a lot on him, but if you draft him, trade him by week 8
34. Dominique Byrd -- 22 -- will probably start as #2 behind Klopfenstein, but could be called into action... with two rookies fighting for a job, the winner will produce well
35. Michael Gaines -- 26 -- this is the year he should begin to take the starting job from Kris Mangum... he's younger and more athletic, and is a good red zone target
36. Anthony Fasano -- 22 -- should start alongside Jason Witten in the Cowboys two-TE set, but he won't offer much offensive production anytime soon
37. Stephen Alexander -- 31 -- still listed as Denver's starter, but his production slipped badly last year and the Broncos might want to see Tony Scheffler's skills
38. Marcus Pollard -- 34 -- the only NFL player from my alma mater (Bradley) is aging, but still offering 40-catch, 500-yd seasons... nobody on the team right now will supplant him this year
39. Bryan Fletcher -- 27 -- he's the best of the three TE behind Dallas Clark, so he should rack up 30-40 catches, and more if Clark is ineffective or injured
40. Kyle Brady -- 34 -- too creaky, but still has the starting job, at least until Marcedes Lewis shows his talent
41. Ernie Conwell -- 34 -- will be the starter until he gets hurt again, at which point Zach Hilton begins his reign in New Orleans
42. Kris Mangum -- 33 -- somebody has to start at tight end in Carolina, and it's either Mangum or Michael Gaines... Mangum is the more reliable of the two, but his age is a concern
43. Chris Baker -- 26 -- together with Doug Jolley, you have one good TE... if your league allows you to combine players together, do it; since most don't, stay away from both
44. Eric Johnson -- 27 -- when the 49ers drafted Vernon Davis in the first round, it killed Johnson's future with the team... he injury prone, but I can't ignore the 82 catches in 2004... see if he's traded, and then watch him carefully
45. Anthony Becht -- 29 -- hasn't missed a game since 2000, but has only scored two TD since November 2003... if he beats Alex Smith, he could make some waves

2006 keeper league rankings -- WR

2006-06-02T14:18:00.000-07:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league WR rankings as of the middle of May. Several rookie receivers broke into the top-100, and others have fallen or retired. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season. There will be updates as the offseason continues...

WR
1. Larry Fitzgerald -- 23 -- he's the youngest of the top-10 receivers, and the Cardinals have the potential to average 35 points per game, so he's the default #1 WR
2. Steve Smith -- 27 -- Jake Delhomme loves him and he's proven that when healthy, he's one of the best playmakers in the business... should come close to repeating his 2005 season
3. Chad Johnson -- 28 -- whether it's Carson Palmer or not, Johnson will still be a productive player... once Palmer is 100%, Johnson will emerge as the #1 fantasy receiver
4. Terrell Owens -- 32 -- he's a big boom or big bust player this year... his QB and opposite receiver are both getting old, and the running back situation is not great, but if he doesn't trip over his mouth, another productive season is in order
5. Anquan Boldin -- 26 -- this might be the year that he gets in the end zone more, but if he doesn't, you won't complain about another 100 catch season
6. Torry Holt -- 30 -- Holt's stock isn't improving, but he's still one of the elite receivers in fantasy... he is at his best when Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are healthy, which hasn't happened yet
7. Reggie Wayne -- 27 -- Peyton Manning will be forced to throw more without Edgerrin James to hand off to, which can't hurt Wayne... he has Marvin Harrison on the opposite side, and this is the year that Harrison passes the torch
8. Chris Chambers -- 28 -- watch the Culpepper situation, because we know what receivers working with Joey Harrington have done in the past... if Daunte is heaving it, Chambers will be catching it... a lot of it
9. Hines Ward -- 30 -- still has a few more top-tier seasons left, and Ben Roethlisberger looks often to him in the red zone... with Willie Parker emerging as a star, Ward could have more chances to shine
10. Randy Moss -- 29 -- he's the best of the middle of the top-tier receivers (did that make sense?) so he gets the #6 ranking for now... the signing of Aaron Brooks isn't bad, and Moss should have a nice rebound season
11. Andre Johnson -- 25 -- this is the year to draft Johnson in a keeper league, because he's coming off injuries and the Texans' offense is improving... he is a top-5 talent on a bad team, so he falls in most drafts
12. Marvin Harrison -- 34 -- hasn't shown his age yet, but with Edgerrin James gone and Reggie Wayne emerging as Peyton Manning's #1 target, he'll begin to decline this year... Harrison should still give you 75-1100-10 in 2006, but don't spend too much on him for the future
13. Plaxico Burress -- 29 -- he fell off the board in the second half of the season, otherwise he might be ranked in the top-10... he's still a huge red zone target and will be a great #2 WR or borderline #1 for your team
14. Santana Moss -- 27 -- he's only 27, but I find it hard to believe that last season wasn't a fluke... if Mark Brunell gets hot again, Moss could have another stud season, but I'm not mortgaging the house on it
15. Roy Williams -- 24 -- Roy is 24, the Lions still don't have a great QB, and you shouldn't expect him to jump to the top-6 yet... but you could do a lot worse about 15 receivers into your draft
16. Darrell Jackson -- 27 -- I want to like Jackson very much, but I can't... he doesn't always stay healthy, and can't hold onto the ball, but his numbers are always respectable, if not excellent... draft him about 20 WR into the night, and you'll be happy
17. Deion Branch -- 27 -- it's about time now that he moves into the top-12 WR, but I want to see it happen before I rank him there... the Patriots made good offseason offensive moves, so Branch should be ready to explode
18. Donte Stallworth -- 25 -- it will be interesting to see how Stallworth reacts to having Drew Brees throwing to him... if he can turn a few WR screens into big plays, he'll have a great season, and should be #1 on the depth chart
19. Lee Evans -- 25 -- career numbers: 96 catches, 16 touchdowns... if he plays a full season and the Bills figure out their QB situation, Evans could be a stud... I'm thinking he ends up around 75-1100-9 in 2006
20. Braylon Edwards -- 23 -- Charlie Frye and the Browns have two phenomenal weapons coming off major injuries... Edwards and Kellen Winslow will emerge in 2007 as great pass catchers and serious red zone weapons... draft Edwards now and watch his knee this year, then enjoy '07
21. Javon Walker -- 28 -- with the trade to Denver, his stock rises, but you still need to watch how he responds to being tackled with a rebuilt knee... he signed a huge deal to stay in Denver, and rookie QB Jay Cutler will love him in 2007
22. Ernest Wilford -- 27 -- I love Wilford's potential as the breakout star of 2006... Jimmy Smith retired and the Jags didn't sign any big name receivers, so he'll be the default #1 for rising star Byron Leftwich... don't wait too long to snag him
23. Laveranues Coles -- 28 -- the Jets passed on the top quarterbacks in the draft, which means Chad Pennington will be throwing to Coles again, which hasn't been all that bad... he won't be your #1 WR, but as a secondary guy, you won't be unhappy
24. Reggie Brown -- 26 -- nobody knows who will come out of camp as Donovan McNabb's favorite WR, but Brown is the best of the bunch... the return of Brian Westbrook will rob Brown of catches, but his yardage won't suffer
25. TJ Houshmandzadeh -- 29 -- more than Chad Johnson, Housh's numbers are directly related to the success of Carson Palmer... he could take a small step back in 2006, but he's still a good #2 WR for your team
26. Antonio Bryant -- 25 -- he could be used as a decoy for rookie TE Vernon Davis, who looks like the real deal... Bryant has a ton of talent, and if Alex Smith has a good sophomore season, Bryant will be a great sleeper pick
27. Donald Driver -- 30 -- becomes the top option for Brett Favre, which is never a bad thing... Driver is 30 now, and there are younger receivers in Green Bay, but he'll still be the most productive Packer in 2006
28. Drew Bennett -- 28 -- Vince Young, Steve McNair, Billy Volek... it doesn't really matter... Bennett became a household name with a ridiculous burst at the end of 2004, causing him to go 15 receivers too high in 2005 drafts... don't do it again
29. Nate Burleson -- 25 -- the change of scenery might be what Burleson needs... Seattle will use him as a #2 or #3 WR, which means he has a serious chance to become a star again... great value pick
30. Derrick Mason -- 32 -- if your league rewards catches, Mason is a stud, producing 430 receptions in the last five seasons... since most leagues don't, and he doesn't score, you can do better than rely on Mason
31. Chad Jackson -- 21 -- should be starting, because he's better than Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown, but probably won't... Jackson will be the best fantasy WR in this draft clas
32. Joe Horn -- 34 -- Drew Brees is in town, and Donte Stallworth is quickly becoming a stud, so Horn's value is much lower than it was in the last few seasons... he's your best bet if you are looking for a 34-year-old receiver on the decline
33. Joey Galloway -- 34 -- had his best season in seven years, but his age will eventually affect his status as a burner... look for the beginning of the decline this year
34. Rod Smith -- 36 -- two major ranking busters: 1. Javon Walker and Ashley Lelie are better and younger than Smith 2. he's 36 years old... that being said, I think he'll have a decent season and then fade into retirement
35. Terry Glenn -- 32 -- never lived up to the hype from his rookie year, but could be a great sidekick to Terrell Owens... look for 60 catches and be happy if he gets there
36. Muhsin Muhammad -- 33 -- whether it's Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Bob Griese... it doesn't matter; no WR in Chicago will catch 70 passes or 9 touchdowns this year, so pick someone younger with more potential
37. Jerry Porter -- 28 -- Porter is still young enough to have a few good seasons, but he hasn't popped into a star yet, and I don't think Aaron Brooks will make him one... a good #3 WR and not much else
38. Troy Williamson -- 24 -- should be the top producing receiver in Minnesota this year, whatever that means... Brad Johnson is old and their "upgrade" at running back was Chester Taylor, so don't get too pumped
39. Mark Clayton -- 24 -- if the Ravens complete a trade for Steve McNair, Clayton will be the biggest beneficiary... he showed us at the end of the year what kind of receiver he can be; now he needs a chance
40. Matt Jones -- 23 -- with Jimmy Smith gone, Jones has a chance to be the #2 WR behind Ernest Wilford... he'll have to fight Reggie Williams, which makes me think he'll be used more as a tight end or H-back
41. Michael Clayton -- 24 -- if Chris Simms likes him, he could duplicate 2004; if not, you'll hate him again, and someone else will share his success after you dump him... hold him through the slump and reap the benefits later
42. Keyshawn Johnson -- 34 -- he's caught 70 or more passes in every full season he's played in the NFL... the key is keeping him healthy and Jake Delhomme throwing to anyone other than Steve Smith
43. Ashley Lelie -- 26 -- currently, he's the #3 receiver in Denver after the acquisition of Javon Walker, but he'll supplant Rod Smith early in the year, and if Walker isn't 100% this year, Lelie could be a surprise
44. Justin McCareins -- 27 -- he really needs a healthy QB to show his talent... McCareins was a rising star in Tennessee, and fell into a hole with the J-E-T-S... could finally breakout into a 70-1000-7 player, but it's a reach
45. Kevin Curtis -- 28 -- I still don't think Curtis is that good, but his numbers suggest otherwise, and he steps into a starting role opposite Torry Holt... he could prove me wrong in 2006, but I doubt it
46. David Givens -- 26 -- he's one of those receivers who it seems has been in the league forever, but is really only 26... the new system won't help him become a star, but there are worse choices
47. Derek Hagan -- 22 -- this is your rookie sleeper, but it depends on several things: A. Culpepper needs to be healthy B. Marty Booker has to show his age C. you have to know who he is
48. Eric Moulds -- 33 -- he gives David Carr an established target, however goofy he may be... with Andre Johnson on the other side, Moulds could see many passes coming his way
49. Cedrick Wilson -- 27 -- he's too small and makes mistakes, but his contract implies that he'll get enough playing time to make a difference... I don't buy it
50. Santonio Holmes -- 22 -- his recent arrest won't hurt him any, and he could start the year as the #3 in Pittsburgh, but don't spend too much on him
51. Michael Jenkins -- 24 -- he still might move from Atlanta, so keep an eye on him, because he's got tools to become a top flight WR in the NFL
52. Brandon Lloyd -- 25 -- Joe Gibbs usually doesn't like idiots, and now he has one in Lloyd... he has a lot of talent, but he can't keep his head on... draft with caution
53. Mike Williams -- 22 -- Williams might become Jon Kitna's best friend... he's a giant, who is mobile enough to get open and strong enough to get tough yards, so he might explode this year if the passing game is revived
54. Brandon Stokley -- 30 -- he's the victim of having too many weapons in the Colts offense... went back into obscurity after a huge 2004 season, and he won't come out of it in Indy
55. Koren Robinson -- 26 -- good story, bad situation... Robinson beat alcohol to become a Pro Bowl returner, but he didn't contribute much to the offense and won't in 2006, either
56. Jabar Gaffney -- 25 -- puts up the same numbers every year, and 2006 will be no different... he'll finish with 50-550-2
57. Mark Bradley -- 24 -- good pick for 2007, but he'll need time to recover from an ACL injury last year... Chicago's passing offense is terrible, but his size and speed might lead to cheap touchdowns
58. Tyrone Calico -- 25 -- this was my favorite no-name receiver for three years, and it hasn't paid off yet... don't give up yet, but don't go nuts over him
59. Chris Henry -- 23 -- it will be interesting to see if Henry takes the next step and passes T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or becomes Brandon Stokley version 2005... I'm voting for the latter
60. Charles Rogers -- 25 -- I can't rank him high until he plays a full season, and if he does, he has to fight for catches from Roy Williams and Mike Williams... draft him if you want to, but don't say I didn't tell you so
61. Reggie Williams -- 23 -- I'd love to see him get a starting spot and show his skills, but that could be a year away
62. Bryant Johnson -- 25 -- three seasons, three touchdowns... he needs an injury to Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin to produce this season... the best #3 NFL WR option in fantasy this year
63. Roddy White -- 24 -- he is in a terrible situation with a QB that can't throw, but he still had a decent rookie year... look for a small step forward, but nothing to write home about
64. Eddie Kennison -- 33 -- his run of 1000-yd seasons will end this year, because the Chiefs will look elsewhere with the offense and his turbo is running low
65. Demetrius Williams -- 23 -- already making people gush in Baltimore, Williams could be a decent #5 receiver in deep leagues if Air McNair lands in Maryland
66. Amani Toomer -- 32 -- he's scored five or more TD in every season since 1998, with 2004 as the only exception... look for a repeat of 2004
67. Joe Jurevicius -- 31 -- takes his 10 touchdowns and great story to Cleveland, where he could be a decent decoy for Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow... or could go back to being useless
68. Robert Ferguson -- 26 -- with the trade of Javon Walker to Denver, Ferguson steps into a decent situation opposite Donald Driver... he could produce like Javon Walker in 2004, or could be on the streets like Jimmy Walker in 1995
69. Reche Caldwell -- 27 -- still has the tools to be a stud, but hasn't put it all together, and this year probably won't be different
70. Arnaz Battle -- 26 -- he's big, but he's on a bad team with a young QB and a below average offensive line... not a good prognosis
71. Antwaan Randle El -- 27 -- I don't like him in Washington, but I didn't like him in Pittsburgh and he put up respectable numbers... always a threat to take it to the house
72. Samie Parker -- 25 -- Parker didn't live up to the expectiations put on him, and he's too small to be a game-changer, so find another option as a #3 fantasy WR
73. Greg Lewis -- 26 -- should be the #2 in Philly, but probably won't be... either way, keep your eye on him
74. Sinorice Moss -- 22 -- will battle Tim Carter for the #3 job with the Giants, but that would make him only the fifth option... let someone else draft him
75. Travis Wilson -- 22 -- probably will be #3 for the Browns, but that's no big shake... has sleeper potential because Braylon Edwards is coming off a major injury and Joe Jurevicius is old
76. Marty Booker -- 30 -- has 630+ yards in each of the last five years... if that's what you are looking for, you won't be disappointed
77. Skyler Green -- 22 -- he's listed as the #4 WR for Dallas, and should take over their kick return duties... you could have worse players as your #6 fantasy WR
78. Keary Colbert -- 24 -- says he was nursing an ankle injury all of last season; if that's true, he should be a good #3 in Carolina
79. Clarence Moore -- 24 -- he's 6'6", and should be used for lob passes in the red zone, but that's about it
80. Peerless Price -- 30 -- returns to the spot of his glory days, but with an unstable QB situation, it's hard to see him catching 60 passes
81. Bernard Berrian -- 25 -- the Bears will use him as a sneaky downfield threat, which means about 30-40 catches and four TD
82. Corey Bradford -- 30 -- right now he's listed as the #2 WR in Detroit... not a chance that will remain the case
83. Brandon Williams -- 22 -- he won't make a big splash, but he could be starting by the end of the season, making him another 49ers starter to avoid
84. Marc Boerigter -- 28 -- I've been waiting for him to explode for five years... eight TD out of 20 catches his rookie year, none since
85. Rod Gardner -- 29 -- still has a chance to be a major contributor, but needs injuries in front of him
86. Aaron Moorehead -- 25 -- good longshot pick, because if any of the WR in Indy falter or get injured, he'll step into the #3 role
87. Marcus Robinson -- 31 -- 19 TD in the last three seasons, but could be buried on the depth chart
88. Greg Jennings -- 23 -- not sure what he'll do... with the return of Brett Favre, I suppose Jennings has some value because he was a second-rounder... not one of the top-6 rookies
89. Travis Taylor -- 28 -- if he starts, he'll give you 55-700-5... if not, forget about him
90. Jerricho Cotchery -- 24 -- good size and tools, but won't supplant Coles or McCareins this season
91. Ronald Curry -- 27 -- if he's healthy, could be a major sleeper on a team without a great tight end
92. Todd Pinkston -- 29 -- hasn't performed in four years as a starter... probably should be 25 spots higher, but I don't trust him
93. Maurice Stovall -- 21 -- has to beat Edell Sheperd and David Boston (yes, that David Boston) to become the #3 WR... good pick for 2007
94. Keenan McCardell -- 36 -- should be near the end of the line, but had a nice year in 2005... find other receivers and let someone else gamble here
95. Eric Parker -- 27 -- developing into a good fantasy WR, but still the third or fourth option in the Chargers offense
96. Shaun McDonald -- 25 -- not much opportunity here, but he always comes up with one or two big weeks... draft him in the last round and hope he explodes when your starters are on bye
97. David Boston -- 28 -- still a freak of nature and still only 28... he could resurrect his career like Galloway... or sail into nothing again
98. Tim Carter -- 27 -- he's one of the five fastest players in the league, but has no job yet
99. Jason Avant -- 22 -- Philly was a good landing spot for him, but he won't produce until next season
100. Brandon Marshall -- 22 -- I liked him before the draft, but he won't crack the lineup in Denver anytime soon

back from vacation

2006-06-01T12:38:00.000-07:00

While I was vacationing in Florida with my wife, I was able to take in several different media sources, and I was interested to find the differences in attitudes between Orlando and my hometown of Chicago. Over the next week, I'll be updating the site with views from the south, as well as more updated rankings for receivers and tight ends. Now that we are three months from opening weekend, updated player rankings will occur more frequently, including the final pre-draft specials during the week of August 14-20.

2006 keeper league rankings -- RB

2006-05-17T12:13:00.000-07:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league RB rankings as of the middle of May. The NFL draft wasn't what anyone expected in the running back category, and a lot of big name college backs entered into interesting situations. 2006 should be an interesting year in the world of fantasy backs. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season.

RB
1. Larry Johnson -- 27 -- he's got less miles on his legs than LT or Alexander, and his numbers from last season are ridiculous
2. Shaun Alexander -- 29 -- the loss of Steve Hutchinson is bigger than the addition of Nate Burleson, but Shaun will still get his 15+ TD
3. LaDainian Tomlinson -- 27 -- the Chargers are going with an unproven QB, but he's still the man and should have at least two more seasons of elite stats
4. Clinton Portis -- 25 -- his entire seasons rests on the left arm of Mark Brunell... without him, Portis will see nine guys in the box all year
5. Edgerrin James -- 28 -- the Cardinals look to be the league's best offense on paper... if Edge can stay on the field, he'll be a stud
6. Steven Jackson -- 23 -- the young stud will hopefully play an entire season with a healthy Marc Bulger; without him, Jackson was useless
7. Cadillac Williams -- 24 -- no competition for his job and a coach who loves to pound the ball... sounds good to me
8. Ronnie Brown -- 24 -- Ricky's gone, Daunte's in... once Culpepper is healthy, Brown's numbers will explode
9. Rudi Johnson -- 27 -- Cinci's offense has a great future with Carson, Chad and Rudi... the new "CCR" should be rollin' for several years
10. Lamont Jordan -- 27 -- the addition of Aaron Brooks doesn't hurt him, but his reception total will decline and he could see less red zone time
11. Willis McGahee -- 25 -- once the Buffalo offense gels under J.P. Losman (or Kelly Holcomb) McGahee will offer a nice return
12. Reggie Bush -- 21 -- he might not be the savior in 2006, but this is a keeper league ranking board, so bid heavily and hope that Deuce disappears next year
13. Julius Jones -- 25 -- still only 25, Jones should benefit from the TO signing and work more in the middle of the field
14. Domanick Davis -- 26 -- Davis owners were delighted to see the Texans pass Reggie Bush in the draft... Davis needs to stay on the field and score more
15. Tiki Barber -- 31 -- are you going to bet against him again in 2006? i am, but i'm not putting down as much money this time
16. Chris Brown -- 25 -- he's still young, but he'll have LenDale White pushing him to stay on the field and produce
17. Kevin Jones -- 24 -- if Kitna or McCown can establish a passing game, Jones will be the surprise player of 2006
18. Willie Parker -- 25 -- doesn't score enough, but that might chance with the retirement of Jerome Bettis and the wishes of Bill Cowher to see Ben Roethlisberger stay in the pocket more
19. Brian Westbrook -- 27 -- the Eagles might use him more as a wideout and give carries to Ryan Moats
20. Cedric Benson -- 23 -- he should be the starter in Chicago, but he didn't show anything last year to make me believe he'll be as good as Thomas Jones the last two seasons
21. Laurence Maroney -- 21 -- will play some in 2006, but should be the full time starter in '07 and make the Patriots even more dangerous
22. Jamal Lewis -- 27 -- stayed in Baltimore, which isn't a great thing, but with Chester Taylor in Minnesota, he should rebound with a solid season
23. Tatum Bell -- 25 -- who knows what Denver will do, but Bell is the most talented of their backs; he just needs to beat Ron Dayne for the job
24. Chester Taylor -- 27 -- has the starting job in Minnesota, but with a creaky Brad Johnson throwing to nobody proven, Taylor won't have too much fun this year
25. DeShaun Foster -- 26 -- this is probably too high for Foster; with DeAngelo Williams waiting in the wings, Foster's time as a starter could be nearing the end
26. DeAngelo Williams -- 23 -- if Foster starts fumbling or gets injured, Williams will produce right away... the only reason he isn't 10 spots higher is because of the plethora of backs in Carolina
27. Reuben Droughns -- 28 -- he had more than 1600 total yards last year, but only two touchdowns... look for more of the same if he holds the job
28. Warrick Dunn -- 31 -- just refuses to give the job to T.J. Duckett, so he should be good for another 1000 yard season, but not much more
29. Deuce McAllister -- 27 -- now with Reggie on board, it's anyone's guess what the Saints will do this year; in 2007, it's Bush, and Deuce will have to find a new team
30. T.J. Duckett -- 25 -- has 27 touchdowns in the last three seasons, but still no starting job; is this the year?
31. Frank Gore -- 23 -- the 49ers could have a good thing going with Alex Smith, Vernon Davis and Gore... if he stays on the field
32. Ahman Green -- 29 -- he might just explode and have a huge 2006, but his future holds nothing beyond that
33. Corey Dillon -- 32 -- see Ahman Green
34. Thomas Jones -- 28 -- the Bears have a lot invested in Benson, but if he fails, Jones will be a productive starter
35. Fred Taylor -- 30 -- he says he's healthy, the team says he's healthy, the media says he's healthy... I say find someone else
36. Joseph Addai -- 23 -- he just doesn't look like the long term answer for the Colts; will probably start the season behind Dominic Rhodes
37. Chris Perry -- 24 -- great third down back just looking for a chance; he'll produce if Rudi gets hurt or starts the season ineffective
38. Ron Dayne -- 28 -- Shanahan has him listed as the starter right now... I'm not going to doubt it, but I'm also not going to draft Dayne
39. LenDale White -- 21 -- he's a giant man with an injury-prone Chris Brown in front of him... if he gets in the game, you'll see numbers like Duckett
40. Mewelde Moore -- 24 -- I still think he's better than Chester Taylor, but the Vikes invested in Taylor and so Moore will wait for a chance
41. Lee Suggs -- 26 -- if healthy, he's Cleveland's best running back, and the Browns should figure that out by midseason
42. Cedric Houston -- 24 -- Houston will be the most productive back on the Jets this year... so grab him if that excites you
43. Dominic Rhodes -- 27 -- probably just holding the spot until Addai is ready, but he does have a 1000 yard season under his belt
44. Greg Jones -- 25 -- I don't know why I have him this high, but he impressed me when he was the starter last year, and I think he could benefit from 15+ carries per game
45. Priest Holmes -- 33 -- Holmes can see the sunset, but he might have a few touchdowns left in him if Larry Johnson goes down
46. Marion Barber -- 23 -- Parcells likes him, although Parcells also likes winning, and that's why he'll stick with Julius Jones
47. Michael Turner -- 24 -- if you have LT, draft Turner, because he's one of the top-10 backups in the league
48. Ryan Moats -- 23 -- might see more carries if Westbrook is injured again or used as a receiver
49. Brian Calhoun -- 22 -- will serve as the primary backup to Kevin Jones, and could produce as a third-down back
50. Curtis Martin -- 33 -- I suppose I have to rank him here because he is still the starter, but he shouldn't last too long this season
51. Mike Anderson -- 33 -- the rookies should be ranked before the old guys on this table, but Anderson somehow proves me wrong every year
52. Kevan Barlow -- 27 -- he still has some juice left, so if he gets out of San Francisco, some team would have a good backup
53. J.J. Arrington -- 23 -- the Cards spent a high first round pick on him last year, but with Edgerrin James in town, Arrington will have a nice seat
54. Michael Pittman -- 31 -- still the backup to Cadillac, but he'll be 31 and hasn't been known to keep his head straight
55. Brandon Jacobs -- 24 -- less than 40 carries last year, but 7 touchdowns... this 265lb back could see more time with Tiki Barber getting no younger
56. Ladell Betts -- 27 -- good spot duty as the #2 to Clinton Portis... Betts will never be a star, but a good option if Portis is down
57. Anthony Thomas -- 27 -- found a job in Buffalo, and with McGahee coming off a disappointing season, Thomas could see the field
58. Michael Bennett -- 28 -- he's #3 in New Orleans right now, but rumors have him leaving to become the backup to Domanick Davis
59. Justin Fargas -- 26 -- Fargas can fly, but he has no job, and Lamont Jordan isn't going anywhere
60. Samkon Gado -- 23 -- Ahman Green is getting old and creaky, and Gado impressed the coaches enough to earn another year
61. Adrian Peterson -- 27 -- with a healthy Cedric Benson, AP isn't likely to see many carries, but if Thomas Jones is traded, he's a valuable backup
62. Alvin Pearman -- 24 -- could sneak ahead of Greg Jones on the depth chart behind Fred Taylor
63. Cedric Cobbs -- 25 -- you never know who Shanahan will throw in there... Cobbs could have 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns this year, or the Broncos could cut him
64. Verron Haynes -- 27 -- should beat Duce Staley for the #2 job in Pittsburgh, which means he'll see some action
65. Maurice Morris -- 26 -- he's fast and he returns kicks, but that's about all
66. Arlen Harris -- 26 -- will emerge as the #2 guy in St. Louis, which could get him a few token carries and some third down catches
67. Leon Washington -- 24 -- rookie who will be #3 with the Jets, until Curtis Martin retires to spend time with his great-grandkids
68. P.J. Daniels -- 23 -- Jamal Lewis is a question mark and Mike Anderson is old, so Daniels might see the field often in 2006
69. Ciatrick Fason -- 23 -- decent sized back in a muddy picture in Minnesota; he actually led the team in rushing TD with 4 in only 32 carries
70. Maurice Drew -- 21 -- you never know... the four guys on the depth chart in front of him might all get in a car together on a snowy day...

2006 keeper league rankings -- QB

2006-05-17T09:00:00.000-07:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league QB rankings as of the middle of May. Now that the NFL draft is over, the rookies will be included in the rankings. The number after the player's name indicated his age for a majority of the 2006 season. Stay tuned for updates as the offseason continues...

QB
1. Peyton Manning -- 30 -- the Colts will try to win with rookie RB Joseph Addai and career backup Dominic Rhodes, so Manning might pass more, which usually isn't good
2. Tom Brady -- 29 -- adding RB Laurence Maroney and WR Chad Jackson in the draft just makes Brady more dangerous
3. Eli Manning -- 25 -- still looks like the #3 QB, but far from being #2
4. Carson Palmer -- 26 -- I still don't know where to rank him, but this is the year to steal him low while he's recovering from a shredded knee
5. Matt Hasselback -- 31 -- Alexander signed a hefty deal, and the addition of Nate Burleson is nice, but the line lost Steve Hutchinson and the Seahawks receivers still can't hold the ball
6. Michael Vick -- 26 -- his legs are your only chance, but they are nice legs...
7. Donovan McNabb -- 29 -- Owens is gone, and the Eagles didn't address WR until round 4... falling out of the top-5 quickly
8. Ben Roethlisberger -- 24 -- probably too high for him, but he's efficient and the Steelers added Santonio Holmes to the attack
9. Daunte Culpepper -- 29 -- I accurately predicted in the last rankings that he'd land in Miami, but that still doesn't make him a top-5 QB
10. Marc Bulger -- 29 -- if he stays healthy, he'll be in the top-6... if not, you'll hate yourself
11. Jake Delhomme -- 31 -- Panthers added a backfield weapon in DeAngelo Williams, but Steve Smith remains the only good receiver on the team
12. Kurt Warner -- 35 -- with Edgerrin James on board, the Cards look like the best offense in football
13. Byron Leftwich -- 26 -- he has a huge red zone target in Marcedes Lewis; now he needs a healthy Fred Taylor
14. Drew Brees -- 27 -- with a Saints offense including Reggie Bush, Brees could be a top-10 QB
15. Jake Plummer -- 31 -- has Jay Cutler to teach, and Javon Walker to throw to... if he has a consistent running game, his passing numbers could explode
16. Drew Bledsoe -- 34 -- Terrell Owens makes Bledsoe a top-16 QB automatically, but his long term outlook isn't great
17. David Carr -- 27 -- unless Mario Williams can play tight end, Carr's position didn't improve after the draft
18. Trent Green -- 36 -- Brodie Croyle won't challenge Green in 2006, but it's a guessing game after that
19. Brett Favre -- 37 -- he lost Javon Walker to the Broncos, but he'll still put up good numbers with Driver and Ferguson
20. J.P. Losman -- 25 -- lost Moulds to the Texans, and the Bills didn't add any offensive players in the draft... might lose job to Kelly Holcomb
21. Aaron Brooks -- 30 -- has Moss and Jordan on his side... could be the sleeper of 2006
22. Chad Pennington -- 30 -- The Jets blew it by passing on a QB in the first round... neither second rounder Kellen Clemens nor Patrick Ramsey will challenge this year
23. Jon Kitna -- 34 -- if he can get the Lions talented offense jumpstarted, he'll put up nice numbers
24. Philip Rivers -- 24 -- he can't help but to do well with Gates, LT and the offensive line in San Diego
25. Matt Leinart -- 23 -- Warner can't stay healthy, and the Cardinals feature the best WR corps in the game
26. Rex Grossman -- 26 -- could put up decent numbers, or could miss the season with another injury
27. Charlie Frye -- 25 -- Frye was named the starter, and he could be a nice surprise
28. Chris Simms -- 26 -- if he can stay in the game and use his weapons, he'll have a nice season
29. Mark Brunell -- 36 -- Father Time is still on the porch, but with Ramsey gone, his job is safe... for now
30. Alex Smith -- 22 -- rookie TE Vernon Davis will become his best friend, but still needs more help
31. Steve McNair -- 33 -- rumored to be on his way to the Ravens; he won't be a star there, and might not stay healthy enough to matter
32. Brad Johnson -- 38 -- the Vikings need a lot of help, and Johnson isn't the answer
33. Billy Volek -- 30 -- If McNair is shipped out, he becomes either a good starter, or a valuable reserve behind Vince Young
34. Vince Young -- 23 -- he will probably learn behind Volek, but could be a stud in 2007
35. Josh McCown -- 27 -- will probably start the season behind Kitna, but when he gets a chance, he'll put up huge numbers
36. David Garrard -- 28 -- agile QB needs a starting job, but won't find it in Jacksonville
37. Kyle Boller -- 25 -- if McNair shows up in Baltimore, Boller will be in the backseat
38. Brian Griese -- 31 -- has offensive weapons in Chicago, now he's waiting for Rex Grossman's annual injury
39. Jay Cutler -- 23 -- needs a Plummer injury to play this season, but he has the weapons to be a star in 2007
40. Patrick Ramsey -- 27 -- once promising, now hoping for another Pennington injury
41. Kelly Holcomb -- 33 -- always seems to produce when called on, no matter what team he's with
42. Joey Harrington -- 28 -- he was bad in Detroit; what makes me think Miami will help him?
43. Jeff Garcia -- 36 -- still can produce, but the offense in Philadelphia is getting weaker, and so is Garcia
44. Gus Frerotte -- 35 -- good news: set career high in TD passes in 2005 -- bad news: his career high is 18
45. Brodie Croyle -- 23 -- should emerge as #2 to Trent Green, who isn't getting younger
46. Aaron Rodgers -- 22 -- goes back to being the backup to a QB who hasn't missed a game since 1954
47. Tony Romo -- 26 -- a Bledsoe injury makes Romo a sleeper; throwing to Owens, Glenn and Witten makes anyone a sleeper
48. Anthony Wright -- 30 -- might begin the season starting if Carson Palmer isn't ready
49. Matt Schaub -- 25 -- performed very well in Vick's absence last year
50. Jim Sorgi -- 25 -- best week 17 quarterback every year

Harrington traded to Dolphins

2006-05-14T10:29:00.000-07:00

The Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins completed a trade Friday that sent QB Joey Harrington to Miami in exchange for a conditional draft pick in 2007. If Harrington reaches undisclosed performance and playing time levels, the pick would be in the fifth round. If not, Detroit receives a sixth rounder.

Harrington will serve as the primary backup to new Dolphins QB Daunte Culpepper, who is coming off major knee surgery and might not be ready to start the season. Harrington was the third player drafted in 2002 by Detroit, but never has materialized into the franchise quarterback the Lions thought they were getting. His career completion percentage is 54.7%, and he has never thrown more than 19 touchdowns in a season.

Harrington actually isn't a bad fantasy option as your #2 quarterback, if Culpepper isn't ready in September. Chris Chambers has proven to be an elite receiver, and Ronnie Brown gives the Dolphins a great running attack, although Harrington had all of the pieces in place in Detroit, and couldn't perform. If Culpepper starts on opening day, the only reason to have Harrington on your team is if you own Culpepper. Otherwise, stay away.

Jimmy Smith retires

2006-05-14T10:16:00.000-07:00

Jimmy Smith, the Jaguars career leading receiver in almost every category, announced his retirement last week after 11 seasons in Jacksonville. Smith was always one of the most underrated receivers in the league. Although he never posted large touchdown numbers, Smith accrued more than 1000 yards receiving nine times and currently sits seventh on the NFL career list for receptions, and 11th for yards. His best statistical season came in 1999, when he finished with 116 catches for 1636 yards, the eighth highest single season total in each category.

Smith's retirement puts Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams into a competition for the #1 job. The early edge would seem to go to Wilford, who led the team with seven touchdowns in 2005. Jones and Williams are both young players looking for breakout seasons, and this might give them that opportunity. Look for Jones to be starting opposite Wilford, with Williams getting plenty of touches. Wilford could get to 70-1100-8, while Jones and Williams could end up with 50 catches each.

NFL draft analysis -- TE

2006-05-07T17:40:00.000-07:00

You have Vernon Davis, and then you have everyone else. This was a year where after Davis was off the board, you could make a case for any of the next five TE to be #2. In all, there were 17 tight ends drafted, and several have a chance to make an immediate impact. Let's take a look at those drafted:

Vernon Davis -- #6 pick to San Francisco -- If he plays as well as he works out, he'll be a stud in the NFL. His combine numbers were off the charts, including a sub-4.4 40-yd dash at almost 260 pounds. He makes the 49ers offense better right away, and gives Alex Smith a big, fast target with excellent hands and great route-running ability. He should be ranked among the top 12 fantasy tight ends for 2006. Eric Johnson caught 82 passes in a bad San Fran offense in 2004, and Davis could do the same this season.

Marcedes Lewis -- #28 pick to Jacksonville -- He has Kyle Brady in front of him, but he should prove quickly that he's the best tight end on the team. Lewis has a ton of talent, but lost focus at times during college. He will give Byron Leftwich a huge red zone target, and should be playing immediately on all passing downs, since he is a weak blocker. Lewis won't be terribly valuable in 2006, but could blossom with a year of experience.

Joe Klopfenstein -- #46 pick to St. Louis -- He was my favorite of the mid-level tight ends, and the Rams took him a lot higher than I projected. He's a tall, sure-handed target who will start the season on top of the depth chart. While he's not a perfect fit into the speed offense of the Rams, he'll survive by running short patterns and grinding for first downs. Klop will be productive, but nothing to get too excited about this year.

Anthony Fasano -- #53 pick to Dallas -- Fasano is a nice player to pair up with Jason Witten in Dallas's two tight end offense. While they're both receiving tight ends, Fasano adds size and strength to the position. He could turn into a good red zone target, and should develop into an above average blocker due to his size. His fantasy outlook isn't good, as he'll be no better than the #4 option in the offense. If Witten leaves Dallas after 2006, Fasano could be a top 15 tight end in 2007.

Tony Scheffler -- #61 pick to Denver -- I thought this was a reach, but many experts like this pick. He's a large tight end who isn't a great blocker and has little speed. Denver doesn't seem to use a tight end in their offense as much as in the past, and they have Stephen Alexander in front of Scheffler. He could develop into a good starter if Alexander gets injured, but I wouldn't spend a high pick on him, if any at all.

Leonard Pope -- #72 pick to Arizona -- The Cards got good value here, considering Pope was the sixth tight end drafted. He has excellent size and speed, and can make good catches in traffic. He shouldn't have too much trouble establishing himself as the best tight end on the team. While he won't have a starting job on opening day, he could be a great late season pickup. The question is will he get any chances in a star-studded Cardinals offense?

Dave Thomas -- #86 pick to New England -- I'm surprised by this pick. Thomas is not a great athlete, and he doesn't have ideal size, speed or strength. He's a very smart player who runs routes well and can get open. He's buried behind Daniel Graham and Ben Watson, so he won't get much of a chance in 2006. If he gets in the game, there won't be much fantasy production.

Dominique Byrd -- #93 pick to St. Louis -- Byrd joins fellow rookie Joe Klopfenstein in St. Louis, and Byrd could prove to be the better player. He's more athletic and has better strength. He also uses his body in traffic better than Klop. It's hard to see either of them catching 50 passes as a rookie, but if either make it, Byrd is the guy. He still isn't worth a high fantasy pick.

Others that were drafted:

Owen Daniels -- #98 pick to Houston -- He wasn't the #1 tight end at Wisconsin, and he won't be in Houston, or on your team.

Garrett Mills -- #106 pick to New England -- The Patriots might move him to fullback, which means nothing to you.

Jason Pociask -- #150 pick to the New York Jets -- He has two good tight ends in front of him, but could be a sleeper for 2007.

Jeff King -- #155 pick to Carolina -- Very smart player who could end up as the #2 tight end for the Panthers. He's a deep sleeper for 2006.

Quinn Sypniewski -- #166 pick to Baltimore -- Huge man with soft hands could get a few garbage touchdowns as the #3 tight end.

Charles Davis -- #167 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers don't need another tight end, and you don't need Davis.

T.J. Williams -- #202 pick to Tampa Bay -- He's a great sixth round pick who is buried on the depth chart. Williams could produce in 2007 if he gets a chance.

Tim Massaquoi -- #244 pick to Tampa Bay -- He's a good athlete who doesn't have a chance this year.

Marques Colston -- #252 pick to New Orleans -- He really should be playing receiver, but it doesn't matter.

NFL draft analysis -- WR

2006-05-06T17:56:00.000-07:00

There were 33 receivers drafted, and despite 2006 becoming a draft that was weak at WR, several teams filled holes by picking a receiver late in the draft. Many fell farther than projected, as teams looked to defense and other skill positions before drafting wideouts. Rookie receivers don't usually make good fantasy players, but there are exceptions... just not this year. Let's look at the top picks:

Santonio Holmes -- #25 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers will have to avoid comparing him to Antwaan Randle El, who they lost to the Redskins in the offseason. Holmes is a little bigger, but not as elusive. He was the only WR chosen in the first round, and he should step in as the #3 receiver in Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean that he'll get a lot of touches until he supplants Cedric Wilson in the starting lineup. Look for him about 40 receivers into your draft.

Chad Jackson -- #36 pick to New England -- Jackson fell 15-20 picks farther than most expected, and the Patriots jumped at the opportunity to grab him in the second round. He'll probably be the most productive of the rookies because he's already the second best receiver in New England. Jackson has the raw talent to be a star in the NFL, but probably could have used one more year of polish. If he breaks the starting lineup by the end of the season, he'll have nice numbers in 2007.

Sinorice Moss -- #44 pick to the New York Giants -- Moss is a great fit in New York, but not on your fantasy team. Besides being too small, he's in an offense where he'll be no better than the fifth option to catch passes. He will make major contributions as a kick returner, so if your league rewards for special teams touchdowns, the Giants just got a little better. If Amani Toomer can't stay healthy, Moss could crack the starting lineup, but won't give you great production.

Greg Jennings -- #52 pick to Green Bay -- This was an interesting pick for the Packers, who traded away Javon Walker on draft day. Jennings is a small receiver who isn't a burner, but can make plays in the open field. He adds help to the kick return team, but he'll start the season as the #4 WR in Green Bay. Jennings probably won't give you more than 20 catches this season, but he could improve greatly if given the chance in 2007.

Travis Wilson -- #78 pick to Cleveland -- The Browns reached for Wilson, although there were five WR picked in the third round, so he might not have made it to the fourth. Wilson is 6'2" 215lbs, but he doesn't do anything particularly well. He doesn't have breakaway speed, and he hasn't learned how to use his body in traffic. Cleveland doesn't have great receivers, so Wilson might play more than he should. If you pick him, it better be late in the draft, or you're in trouble.

Derek Hagan -- #82 pick to Miami -- Hagan will be the best receiver drafted in the third round. I've changed my tune on him a little since the preview article, because after watching film, he's developing into a physical red zone target. He has great hands and runs precise, crisp routes. With Daunte Culpepper in Miami, and Marty Booker standing between Hagan and a starting job, he could be the surprise producer of 2006. Most of the owners in your league won't know who he is... take advantage of that.

Brandon Williams -- #84 to San Francisco -- Williams is already the second best WR in San Francisco, and that's not good for the 49ers. He lacks size and speed to be a productive receiver, and unless he adds 15+ pounds to the 171 he's already carrying, bigger defensive backs will abuse him. That being said, he is a very smart player who knows how to get open, and he has very good hands in traffic. He won't add anything to your fantasy team in 2006, or probably ever.

Maurice Stovall -- #90 pick to Tampa Bay -- Stovall is an intriguing prospect because of his size, and the lack of depth at WR in Tampa. He doesn't have NFL speed, and he isn't particularly quick. He does run excellent routes, and should be a terror in the red zone. If Michael Clayton comes out of the gate awful again, the Bucs might throw Stovall in to see what he can do. You shouldn't follow suit, unless he's clearly their #2 guy.

Willie Reid -- #95 pick to Pittsburgh -- Reid will make the team, but probably only as a special teams player. He didn't produce anything at Florida State until his last season, and he's too small to be used as anything but a kick returner immediately. The Steelers have at least four receivers in front of him on the depth chart, so don't get too excited.

Others who were drafted:

Michael Robinson -- #100 pick to San Francisco -- He played QB in college, and he buried on the depth chart. Bad.

Brad Smith -- #103 pick to the New York Jets -- Smith is another college QB who doesn't have the speed to survive at WR.

Cory Rodgers -- #104 pick to Green Bay -- Too many WR in Green Bay and a 4.75 40-yd dash equals Arena League.

Jason Avant -- #109 pick to Philadelphia -- Good pick for the Eagles, but he'll be deep on the charts. He could surprise in the red zone.

Demetrius Williams -- #111 pick to Baltimore -- He'll get a chance as the #3 or #4 in Baltimore, but he needs to stay focused.

Will Blackmon -- #115 pick to Green Bay -- A converted cornerback, he's got a better chance at success than Rodgers.

Brandon Marshall -- #119 pick to Denver -- He won't get much playing time, but he could be a threat in the red zone. Think Clarence Moore.

Skyler Green -- #125 pick to Dallas -- Green is a great kick returner, and should be the #4 WR to start the season.

Domenik Hixon -- #130 pick to Denver -- Hixon might not make the team... yours or Denver's.

Marques Hagans -- #144 pick to St. Louis -- Hagans is yet another converted QB who ran a 4.64 40-yd dash. Not good.

Jeremy Bloom -- #147 pick to Philadelphia -- Great publicity, good story, bad idea.

Mike Haas -- #171 pick to New Orleans -- He had a great college career, but it ends there.

Jonathan Orr -- #172 pick to Tennessee -- Phenomenal athlete who won't get to play much.

Delanie Walker -- #175 pick to San Francisco -- Big receiver who has no speed.

Adam Jennings -- #184 pick to Atlanta -- Great value pick by Atlanta. Jennings is a burner who should be the Falcons #4 WR. A deep sleeper here.

Jeff Webb -- #190 pick to Kansas City -- Webb is a big WR who is buried in Kansas City. Might make an impact in 2007.

Ethan Kilmer -- #209 pick to Kansas City -- Great special teamer, bad fantasy guy.

Todd Watkins -- #218 pick to Arizona -- Good pick here; he should stick as a #5 WR and special teams player.

Bennie Brazell -- #231 pick to Cincinnati -- He's 6'3" 175 lbs... which means he'll get killed.

Devin Aromashodu -- #233 pick to Miami -- Good kick returner, nothing else.

Ben Obomanu -- #249 pick to Seattle -- Project player who could help Seattle in 2007.

David Anderson -- #251 pick to Houston -- Pass.

Kevin McMahan -- #255 pick to Oakland -- Mr. Irrelevent is a burner who might stick somewhere.

NFL draft analysis -- RB

2006-05-03T10:27:00.000-07:00

The Houston Texans shocked the world by drafting DE Mario Williams and passing on Reggie Bush. Other than that, there weren't many surprises, as several teams filled holes and others strengthened an already good backfield. Let's look at the running rookies:

Reggie Bush -- #2 pick to New Orleans -- The Saints didn't really need a RB, but the hype and talent that Bush brings was too much to pass up for a city in need of an adrenaline shot. Bush has been called the best college running back in the last 15 years, but it will be interesting to see what the Saints do with Deuce McAllister. Reggie might find himself used more as a slot receiver his rookie year. Either way, he's the prize of this draft, and will become a top fantasy RB in time.

Laurence Maroney -- #21 pick to New England -- This is a great pick for the Patriots, who feature aging back Corey Dillon, and a trio of backups who aren't impressive. Maroney will have time to learn the system and will only be pushed into action if Dillon gets injured. He should take over the starting job in 2007 and become a top-15 fantasy back immediately. Draft him this year and hold on for the future.

DeAngelo Williams -- #27 pick to Carolina -- I suppose I'm confused; the Panthers resigned DeShaun Foster to a two year contract and spent a high pick last season on Eric Shelton. They had other holes that needed filling, but they chose to take a tailback. It remains to be seen what their plans are for Williams, but he'd need Foster out of the way to make an impact in 2006. He should be a good NFL back, but not a fantasy stud anytime soon.

Joseph Addai -- #30 pick to Indianapolis -- I liked Addai in college. I liked him more after the combine. I love him as a Colt. Addai will have a chance to start right now, with only Dominic Rhodes in his way. He's a nice fit for their system, and he will allow Peyton Manning to stretch the defense by running inside if necessary. Addai will be a fantasy stud in the second half of 2006, if not sooner. He won't be the first rookie drafted in your league, but he should be.

LenDale White -- #45 pick to Tennessee -- The Titans took chances with both of their first two picks, selecting Vince Young in the first round and White in the second. He didn't perform at the combine due to a hamstring injury, which probably cost him a chance at the first round. White is a bruising back who has yet to prove he can play every down. He'll compete with Chris Brown for the job, but look for Brown to win and White to get some goal line and short yardage carries in 2006.

Maurice Drew -- #60 pick to Jacksonville -- Drew joins a crowded backfield with the Jaguars, but should contribute as a third down back this season. He's small and injury prone, meaning he'll fit well in Jacksonville. He doesn't figure to have a starting role soon, but he could be the backup for many years. Drew was drafted higher than I expected, and he shouldn't be one of your top three fantasy backs this year.

Brian Calhoun -- #74 pick to Detroit -- This could turn out to be a good value pick for the Lions. Calhoun will probably emerge as the backup to Kevin Jones, but in an offense featuring three first round picks at receiver and two quarterbacks with good arms, Calhoun could be a major contributor if Jones is injured or ineffective. That being said, don't draft him too high, as he is the #2 man behind a young running back that the Lions have a lot invested in.

Jerious Norwood -- #79 pick to Atlanta -- This is a wasted pick for the Falcons. Norwood doesn't do anything especially well, and Atlanta has Warrick Dunn giving them great numbers every season. I know that Dunn has passed 30 years old, but T.J. Duckett should become the full time back. I'd be surprised if Norwood has any impact at all this year, and may be the RB from this draft that will be out of the league after three years without doing anything.

Others who were drafted:

Leon Washington -- #117 pick to the New York Jets -- Washington might find a place on special teams, but he won't have any fantasy impact in 2006.

P.J. Daniels -- #132 pick to Baltimore -- I like this pick because Jamal Lewis is always a question mark. Stash Daniels on your bench in deep leagues and hope he gets a chance.

Jerome Harrison -- #145 pick to Cleveland -- The Browns don't have a stud back, so anyone could step up to produce. With Droughns and Suggs in front of him, anything could happen.

Wali Lundy -- #170 pick to Houston -- Lundy had a nice college career, but he won't do much as a pro. Houston might keep him as their third RB.

Cedric Humes -- #240 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers might convert Humes into a backup fullback and keep him on the team. You don't need to get to know him.

Quinton Ganther -- #246 pick to Tennessee -- If he makes the team, it will be as a special teams player, which doesn't do anything for you.

NFL draft analysis -- QB

2006-05-01T18:10:00.000-07:00

There were many good QB prospects in this draft, but many people didn't look beyond the big three of Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler. Some guys went amazingly high, and several fell farther than expected. Let's look at the top quarterbacks from the draft.

Vince Young -- #3 pick to Tennessee -- While rumors swirl about the trade of Steve McNair, Young potentially steps into a starting role. The Titans have a good offensive line, and Young will have every opportunity to succeed. If Tennessee builds the offense around him, he has the potential to become a faster Donovan McNabb. If McNair stays in Tennessee, Young won't be a factor until 2007. If not, draft him as your backup until he has a few weeks under his belt.

Matt Leinart -- #10 pick to Arizona -- Leinart steps into the best situation out of the big three, as Kurt Warner hasn't played a full season since 2001. Arizona features the best young receiver tandem in the NFL with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Once he gets a chance, he'll put up good numbers. That might include some interceptions, but the yards will be there. I've said from the start that Leinart was the best QB in this draft, and now I agree from a fantasy standpoint as well.

Jay Cutler -- #11 pick to Denver -- The Broncos traded up to grab Cutler, then sent their second round pick to Green Bay for Javon Walker. This bodes well for Cutler, who will probably step into the starting role in 2007. He'll have a superstar receiver in Walker, and if Tatum Bell is able to play to his potential, Cutler will be able to use him to stretch the field. Denver liked him better than Leinart and Young, and doubting the Broncos hasn't been successful in the past. Roll the dice in keeper leagues and look to 2007.

Kellen Clemens -- #49 pick to the New York Jets -- The Jets passed on Leinart and Cutler, and then reached for Clemens in the second round. With his ankle injuries at Oregon, he probably would have fallen into the third round. That being said, he's an extremely intelligent quarterback who can make throws from any position. He's mentally ready to play in the NFL, and might be called to duty earlier than anticipated if Chad Pennington finds his usual seat in the ambulance. Clemens is a good pick for late in your keeper league draft because he'll be the #2 guy behind an injury prone starter.

Tarvaris Jackson -- #64 pick to Minnesota -- I'm surprised that the Vikings didn't trade up to select one of the big three quarterbacks. Jackson is a good project who will learn for a year behind Brad Johnson and then step in as the starter. He's a big, fast player and has been called a miniature Daunte Culpepper. That's not a bad thing, but he has to improve his technique and focus to be an impact in the NFL. He won't help your team in 2006, but could be a starter the following season.

Charlie Whitehurst -- #81 pick to San Diego -- Whitehurst was the sixth QB off the board, but he has a chance to become an instant contributor. The Chargers lost Drew Brees to New Orleans, but they've invested a lot in former first rounder Phillip Rivers. Whitehurst is a large, somewhat immobile quarterback who draws comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger with his size and ability. He isn't great on the run, and his technique leaves something to be desired, but with LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates on his side, he would perform well if given the chance. Keep your eye on him in case Rivers doesn't cut it in 2006.

Brodie Croyle -- #85 pick to Kansas City -- If he would have stayed healthy during his college career, he would have been on the same level as Jay Cutler. Both are smart quarterbacks who know how to manage a field. Both have slight inadequacies when it comes to being a complete player, and both know how to lead. The difference is that Croyle has blown the ACL in both knees and suffered other injuries to ankles and shoulders. If he can stay on the field, he has a chance to take over for Trent Green in 2007 and produce nicely. If not, he's worthless.

Others who were drafted:

Ingle Martin -- #148 pick to Green Bay -- He has great ability and tools, and should be the #2 QB in 2007. He had a great career at Furman, which nobody has ever heard of.

Omar Jacobs -- #164 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers might have found the long-term backup to Roethlisberger. Jacobs has terrible technique, but is smart enough to get around it.

Reggie McNeal -- #193 pick to Cincinnati -- McNeal is a phenomenal athlete who might end up as a corner or receiver in the NFL. He has blazing speed, and will probably turn out to be the best sixth round pick in the draft.

Bruce Gradkowski -- #194 pick to Tampa Bay -- I'm surprised he was drafted, but he could turn out to be a good NFL backup, which means he's worthless to you.

D.J. Shockley -- #223 pick to Atlanta -- Now the Falcons have another quarterback who can't play the position. He'd be better off to switch to receiver, but it won't matter in Atlanta.

NFL draft analysis -- general

2006-05-01T17:57:00.001-07:00

As I watched my mock draft go up in flames, I decided to focus my post-draft analysis on the fantasy stock of the players. There's no need to point out that two of my first-round selections (OT Eric Winston and CB Ashton Youboty) lasted until the third round, or that I didn't accurately predict where any of the big three QB would land. We'll take a look on what impact the draftees will have in 2006 and beyond.

When I heard on Saturday night that Houston had agreed to terms with DE Mario Williams, I couldn't believe it. The Texans could have picked up quite a few picks in exchange for that top selection, but they settled for Williams... not that he isn't a freak, but did Houston really want him that much more than D'Brickashaw Ferguson? Wouldn't the Jets have given their #4 pick, plus quite a bit more to get Reggie Bush? Does anyone in Houston have a clue?

There were winners and losers at the draft, but we'll strictly focus on the fantasy world, primarily on the offensive side of the ball. Some leagues don't have defenses, and we'll cover the defensive players in later articles.

2006 NFL mock draft

2006-04-26T12:45:00.000-07:00

This is the official mock draft for the 2006 NFL Draft on April 29-30. Brandon and I have spent many hours coming up with what we truly believe will happen this weekend. Obviously, we can't predict any trades that will occur, and we both agree that there will be several trades involving first round picks. That being said, we'll offer the mock draft as the order sits now, and update accordingly.

1. Houston Texans -- Reggie Bush/RB/USC -- What else is there left to say that you haven't already heard? He's simply too good to pass up... and although the Texans don't necessarily need a RB, Bush makes any team better.

2. New Orleans Saints -- Mario Williams/DE/NC State -- Williams is clearly the best defensive player in the draft, but this pick could end up outside the Big Easy, and then it's anyone's guess. If they keep it, Williams is the best option and shouldn't be passed on.

3. Tennessee Titans -- Matt Leinart/QB/USC -- The deciding factor turns out to be Titans Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow, who coached Leinart at USC. Tennessee can't screw this one up no matter if it's Leinart or Vince Young.

4. New York Jets -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson/OT/Virginia -- He's the best offensive lineman in the draft and the Jets decide to pass on a quarterback in favor of bolstering the line. Ferguson will be on their line for the next 10-15 years, and this pick might dictate what they do at #29.

5. Green Bay Packers -- A.J. Hawk/LB/Ohio State -- This is probably the only pick in the top 5 that we are sure about. It would be hard for the Pack to pass on Hawk, who gives them the option to move Nick Barnett outside, or play them side-by-side. Either way, he's an impact player on a defense that needs one.

6. San Francisco 49ers -- Vernon Davis/TE/Maryland -- Davis is probably the best athlete pound-for-pound in the draft, and he immediately makes Alex Smith better. The 49ers will probably look to the defense with their pick at #22, so they grab Davis now.

7. Oakland Raiders -- Vince Young/QB/Texas -- Raise your hand if you thought Young would be available at #7 an hour after the Rose Bowl? We didn't either, but that's how it looks like it will play out. There are questions about his throwing motion, but as long as he can throw the jump ball to Moss, who cares what the motion looks like?

8. Buffalo Bills -- Brodrick Bunkley/DT/Florida State -- He's more athletic than Haloit Ngata, and figures to be an immediate impact player in Dick Jauron's defense. Bunkley had strong numbers in 2005 against NFL-caliber linemen and will anchor the Bills for many years.

9. Detroit Lions -- Michael Huff/DB/Texas -- Huff has the ability to play safety or cornerback in the NFL. The Lions will probably misuse him, but his immense talent will shine through, and he will be an impact in 2006.

10. Arizona Cardinals -- Haloti Ngata/DT/Oregon -- The Cards pass on Cutler and plug a hole at DT with the 6'4" 340lb lineman. Ngata will be an impact player from day one, and he will complement Darnell Dockett well.

11. St. Louis Rams -- Ernie Sims/LB/Florida State -- The Rams make the first reach of the draft and select the undersized Sims. He's a phenomenal athlete who became a tackling machine at FSU, but there were better options here.

12. Cleveland Browns -- Kamerion Wembley/DE/Florida State -- Wembley fits well into Cleveland's 3-4 defense and should be an immediate force rushing the QB from the outside. The Browns are also looking at Manny Lawson here, but they fill a hole with Wembley.

13. Baltimore Ravens -- Winston Justice/OT/USC -- Justice had off-field problems during the 2004 season that probably cost him a chance at being a top-6 pick this year. He's a huge right tackle who should complement Jonathan Ogden well, and then switch to left tackle once Ogden retires.

14. Philadelphia Eagles -- Chad Greenway/LB/Iowa -- This is one of the major boom or bust picks... the Eagles pass on a receiver to upgrade their linebacking corps. Greenway is a big, physical backer who possesses below average strength for a top-tier LB. If he can improve his lower body drive, he'll be a stud.

15. Denver Broncos -- Chad Jackson/WR/Florida -- Ashley Lelie will be traded, and Jackson could step in as the star immediately. Rod Smith is older than dirt, but should be a good mentor to Jackson. He needs more experience, but he'll be thrown into the mix right away in Denver.

16. Miami Dolphins -- Jimmy Williams/CB/Virginia Tech -- Miami has their choice of any CB in the draft, and chooses Williams, who at 6'2", is the tallest of the top-5 corner prospects. Scouts question his focus, so if Nick Saban can keep his head straight, Williams will produce.

17. Minnesota Vikings -- Jay Cutler/QB/Vanderbilt -- Cutler watched himself become a first round pick almost overnight by being the only big name QB to work out at the combine. I still think he's overrated, but the Vikings have no choice but to draft him, if he falls this far.

18. Dallas Cowboys -- Demeco Ryans/LB/Alabama -- He just looks like a Parcells guy... Ryans is a hard-hitting OLB, who could stand to add 15-20 pounds to his 6'1" 225lb frame. He is a good tackler, and should step in to start week 1 for Dallas.

19. San Diego Chargers -- Tye Hill/CB/Clemson -- It was between Hill and Antonio Cromartie, and the Chargers choose to draft the athlete rather than the shut down corner. Hill is only 5'9" and has poor technique, but he's a phenomenal talent and will definitely be used as a nickel corner, if not more.

20. Kansas City Chiefs -- Antonio Cromartie/CB/Florida State -- The biggest question mark in the first round, Cromartie could turn out to be the best player from this draft. Cromartie missed the entire 2005 season due to injury, but his workouts have been great, and he's ready to become a starter in the NFL.

21. New England Patriots -- Manny Lawson/DE/NC State -- Simply a speed rusher, Lawson offers little to run defense and zone coverage. He's exceptionally quick, and would play on the outside in a 3-4 scheme. His college resume includes 10.5 sacks and 4 INT in 2005.

22. San Francisco 49ers -- Mathias Kiwanuka/DE/Boston College -- Kiwanuka is another speed rusher who is bigger than Lawson, but with less moves. He creates matchup problems because of his height (6'7") and with a little more strength, he could develop into a superstar. This is a steal at 22...

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Santonio Holmes/WR/Ohio State -- Holmes probably shouldn't have fallen this far, but Tampa doesn't mind. His size will be questioned, but he has the rare combination of deep speed and over-the-middle hands and route running. He scored 25 touchdowns in his three seasons at OSU.

24. Cincinnati Bengals -- Tamba Hali/DE/Penn State -- Hali is the typical jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He's a gifted athlete that has no true weakness. His motor is always running, and he's one of the hardest workers in the draft. He'll be a good pro, but never a superstar.

25. New York Giants -- Eric Winston/OT/Miami -- The Giants get good value here, and Winston has the versatility to play either side of the line. With the signing of LaVar Arrington, they were able to look to the line, and Winston will be a starter for many years.

26. Chicago Bears -- Marcedes Lewis/TE/UCLA -- The Bears would be better off trading down and stockpiling picks, because there are better values at TE in the middle to late second round. Lewis has great hands and quickness, and creates matchup problems in the red zone. He still shouldn't be a first-round pick.

27. Carolina Panthers -- Laurence Maroney/RB/Minnesota -- Maroney is the best RB prospect in this draft not named Bush. He can take it to the end zone on every play, and has great leg strength. It's hard to see why the Panthers would draft a top back after signing DeShaun Foster, but all indications are that they will.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Bobby Carpenter/LB/Ohio State -- The Jags love Carpenter, but they could probably trade down to the 35-40 range and still draft him. His stock rose tremendously over the last year, and he's still improving. That being said, there were several better options.

29. New York Jets -- DeAngelo Williams/RB/Memphis -- The Jets complement their earlier pick of D'Brickashaw Ferguson by giving him a runner to block for. The problem is that they picked the wrong guy. Williams is a gifted athlete and runner, but the Jets could have added a top CB here or moved down and drafted a RB in the second round.

30. Indianapolis Colts -- Ashton Youboty/CB/Ohio State -- Youboty is too good to fall this far, so the Colts snatch him and will reap the benefits. They were hoping Maroney would fall, but they'll look to RB in the second or third round. Youboty has great size and speed, and could start right now for 20 NFL teams.

31. Seattle Seahawks -- Donte Whitner/S/Ohio State -- This is a great pick for the Seahawks, who need a healthy, hard-hitting safety. Whitner is still developing his skills and he could be a Pro-Bowler early in his career. He has the skill set and attitude to make an immediate impact.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Jason Allen/CB/Tennessee -- Allen can play corner or safety in the NFL, and has the size and speed to excel at either position. It's hard to believe he's a first-round pick, but the Steelers seem to know what they are doing with secondary selections.

Favre to play in 2006

2006-04-25T20:43:00.000-07:00

QB Brett Favre announced that he will return to the Packers in 2006, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen. Favre called head coach Mike McCarthy early Tuesday morning to inform him of his decision. This brings to an end weeks of speculation over whether or not Favre would play. See the previous post "Favre: Should I Stay or Should I Go?" for further analysis.

Ricky officially suspended

2006-04-25T19:49:00.000-07:00

Updating a previous article "Ricky too smoky?" February 20, 2006, Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams lost his appeal to the NFL and will serve a suspension for the entire 2006 season. This was his fourth violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy. Williams will be eligible for reinstatement for the 2007 season.

When Ricky was at the top of his game, which was for the 2001-03 seasons, he was one of the most devastating runners in recent memory. He had the bulk to run over defenders inside, and the speed to turn the corner and go the distance. He had special athletic ability, only seen very few times in a generation.

Unfortunately, Williams is another case of an athlete who let drugs ruin an otherwise phenomenal sports career. While Ricky might not have been considered with the top running backs in history, he would have likely finished his career much higher than 46th on the career rushing yards list, where he sits now. As it was, Ricky was an enigma of a human being whose bizarre actions and drug use derailed a pro football career.

While he says he'll return for the 2007 season, the Dolphins would be foolish to allow him onto the squad. My thought is that he's probably played his last game in the NFL, and could surface as a publicity tool in the Arena League or some semi-pro outfit. It's been fun, Ricky... but your 15 minutes is up.

NFL draft preview -- TE

2006-04-23T14:24:00.000-07:00

Here are my rankings for the best NFL draft prospects at TE. These rankings will be based on the player's overall talent level and chance to have a good pro career. They will not take into consideration draft order or needs of current NFL teams. That will be assessed after the draft in the updated fantasy rankings.

1. Vernon Davis -- Maryland -- Davis is clearly the best prospect at TE, and one of the top 10 athletes in the draft. He checks in at 6'4" 250lbs and ran a 4.38 40-yd dash at the combine. That's right... 4.38. That's faster than most of the WR prospects, and Davis is much bigger. Davis runs excellent routes, and has the ability to gain separation from coverage, whether it be linebackers or defensive backs. He has a chance to be a special player in the NFL, with his size and speed combination. Davis isn't one of the top blocking TE in the draft, but who cares? He will probably be a top-10 pick, and should be the only TE taken in the first round.

2. Marcedes Lewis -- UCLA -- After Davis, the next four TE could all make a case for #2. My pick is Lewis, who knows how to use his 6'6" 260lb frame to be an offensive force. He caught 58 passes in 2005 and scored 10 touchdowns, while averaging more than 12 yards per catch. Lewis is an exceptional blocker, meaning he won't be pulled on running downs. If he gets into the right NFL scheme, he could produce immediately. He'll probably be a late second round pick.

3. Leonard Pope -- Georgia -- Pope might turn out to be the best value at TE in the draft. He's still considered a project, and scouts would like to see 20 more pounds on his 6'7" 255lb body. He's a phenomenal offensive TE, who runs routes precisely and has great hands. Isn't as fast as Davis or Joe Klopfenstein, but he's quick enough to find holes in zone coverages. The biggest knock on Pope is that he is a below average blocker. More bulk would aid this, but it might take away from his offensive ability. Had he stayed in school for his fourth year, he could have been a first round pick. As he is now, he'll be drafted in the second, and some team will be happy in '07 or '08 when he becomes a top-10 TE.

4. Joe Klopfenstein -- Colorado -- You might not know (or be able to say) his name now, but by the time he has two or three NFL seasons under his belt, you will. He will eventually outperform guys drafted in front of him. Klop is the smartest TE in the draft, and he runs routes that consistently get him open. He is an excellent blocker, and impressed scouts with good combine numbers, including a 4.62 40-yd dash and 36" vertical leap, while checking in at 6'6" and 248lbs. Teams looking to fill a TE void would be better off to wait until the third round and draft Klop.

5. Anthony Fasano -- Notre Dame -- Fasano is one of those guys who probably shouldn't be ranked this high, but the national attention didn't hurt him any. He is good at many things, but great at none. Fasano is another extremely intelligent player, and one of the hardest workers in the draft. Unfortunately, that doesn't translate to fantasy success. He has good hands, and works well in traffic, but his athleticm leaves something to be desired. He could sneak into the second round, but probably will be picked between 70-90 players into the draft.

6. Dominique Byrd -- USC -- Byrd is like Fasano, in that he wasn't hurt by being on TV all season. He's an injury-prone tight end who had a better 2004 season than 2005. Byrd has good quickness, and is an above-average blocker. He could excel as an H-back in the NFL because of his size (6'3" 262lbs) and receiving ability. Byrd isn't an elite TE, but he could have been a higher draft pick had he entered the draft in 2004. He might be picked on the first day, somewhere in the third round.

7. Charles Davis -- Purdue -- Davis is an imposing figure, packing 267lbs on his 6'6" frame. He played forward for the Boilermakers basketball team, so he immediately draws comparisons to Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates as crossover players. Don't confuse him with those guys, though... Davis is a project, but he has the athleticism to become an excellent offensive tight end in the NFL. He didn't have a great combine, but an NFL team might take a chance on him late in the draft to see what happens.

NFL draft preview -- WR

2006-04-16T12:47:00.000-07:00

Here are my rankings for the best NFL draft prospects at WR. These rankings will be based on the player's overall talent level and chance to have a good pro career. They will not take into consideration draft order or needs of current NFL teams. That will be assessed after the draft in the updated fantasy rankings.

1. Chad Jackson -- Florida -- Jackson entered the NFL draft after his junior season, taking advantage of a weak overall receiver corps. He likely won't be the first WR drafted, but he has the best chance to become a star. Jackson is a 6'1" 215lb burner who ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the combine. He only had one superstar season at Florida, but it included 88 catches and 11 touchdowns. Jackson has great hands, and the ability to take post patterns and short outs to the end zone.

2. Santonio Holmes -- Ohio State -- Most experts have Holmes ranked as the #1 WR in the draft. He's an all-purpose player who starred as a kick and punt returner last season. He also averaged 18.4 yards on his 53 catches and scored 11 touchdowns. Some teams are concerned with his size (5'10 1/2" 187lbs) but he's made enough plays at the college level that he should have a big impact for an NFL team. He has a tremendous first step, and good top-end speed. Holmes has great hands and footwork, and is one of the most fundamentally sound receivers to enter the draft in years. He probably will be the first WR selected on draft day.

3. Sinorice Moss -- Miami -- I don't like Sinorice Moss, but I can't find anyone better... the draft is that weak at receiver. Moss is only 5'8" 180lbs, but he has excellent speed and can be used as a kick returner, as well as a slot receiver. He didn't have a particularly productive college career, but his senior year produced 614 yards and six touchdowns. He has the ability to become a game-changer on special teams. Moss might sneak into the first round, but it would be a mistake for an NFL team to draft him that high.

4. Maurice Stovall -- Notre Dame -- After the top three WR, any of the next 10 could become a good NFL receiver. Stovall is a project, as he offered nothing to the Irish before an inconsistent, but productive 2005 season. He finished with 1149 yards and 11 touchdowns, but never put together good back-to-back games until the end of the year. Stovall is 6'4 1/2" 220lbs, so he'll be a huge target for whichever team takes the chance. If he can run clean routes in the NFL, he'll be a nice surprise. He should be between the 4th and 7th WR drafted.

5. Brandon Marshall -- Central Florida -- I love the versatility this kid offers, but I'm not an NFL GM... Marshall finally had a productive offensive season in 2005, scoring 11 touchdowns (did all of the top prospects catch exactly 11 touchdowns?) and racking up almost 1200 yards. He has been plagued by injuries at WR, so UCF moved him to safety in 2004 and he led the team in tackles. Marshall will probably play WR in the NFL due to his size (6'4" 229lbs) and speed (4.51 40-yard dash) but an NFL team will have options with him.

6. Jason Avant -- Michigan -- Avant is another converted safety, but he starred in the secondary during high school. Overshadowed by Braylon Edwards for two years, Avant had an excellent 2005 season, finishing with 82-1007-8. At 6'1" 212lbs, he has enough size to put a body on defensive backs. Without Edwards in front of him, he could have developed into a first round pick. He has good speed and excellent acceleration. He probably won't be one of the top 5 WR drafted, but he'll be a nice pick for some NFL team in the late 3rd or 4th round.

7. Derek Hagan -- Arizona State -- Hagan should probably be the #4 WR on this board, but there is something missing. He's got the size (6'2" 210lbs) and is an excellent route runner, but he doesn't have breakaway speed or particularly great focus. His college numbers are impressive: he compiled 226-3534-27 in his last three seasons with ASU. He'll be drafted in the late 2nd or early 3rd round, but I'd rather wait and take a chance on Avant or Marshall.

Editorial: Favre -- Should I Stay or Should I Go?

2006-04-10T21:53:00.000-07:00

I'll be honest: I'm getting a little tired of the Brett Favre soap opera.

While Favre is deciding whether or not to return for his 16th NFL season, I'm trying to figure out if anyone outside Green Bay is still interested in this story. I learned by watching the Chicago Bulls of the late 1990s that once the story breaks that a superstar "might" come back, it loses its luster quickly. Maybe if I was a football player, or any sports persona for that matter, I'd understand. It's a life decision, right? Favre can either hang up the spikes and take his place in history as the most durable quarterback ever, or come back for one more season, and captivate the media and other mindless beings while promoting a farewell tour.

It's April, and it's time to decide.

Favre has been through more than any human should in the last three years. He's mourned the death of his father and brother-in-law, and watched his wife suffer through breast cancer. There's no argument that Favre is a tough individual, both emotionally and physically. Let it be known that despite being a lifelong bleeder of the blue and orange from Chicago, I've always been a huge Favre fan, albeit not publicly. That will get you killed in the Windy City.

I just hate to see Favre stringing the Packers along until he makes up his mind. He's been one of the classiest players in the NFL for many years and I'm not sure he understands what this does for a player's reputation. There comes a point when a person has to face the music, and begin a different phase of life. I still happen to think Favre can compete at a high level for at least two more years. He'll be 37 on October 10, and while his body has taken a beating, he seems to be in great shape... but if his mind isn't there, his body shouldn't be either... and that may be the case.

Brett -- just make a decision soon, because fewer people care by the day, and that's a shame.

NFL draft preview -- RB

2006-04-10T19:30:00.000-07:00

Here are my rankings for the best NFL draft prospects at RB. These rankings will be based on the player's overall talent level and chance to have a good pro career. They will not take into consideration draft order or needs of current NFL teams. That will be assessed after the draft in the updated fantasy rankings.

1. Reggie Bush -- USC -- Bush is considered to be the best college RB in recent memory. He led the nation in all-purpose yards in 2005, and will be a threat on many levels in the NFL. He can be utilized as a kick returner, and a slot receiver. His combination of speed and agility draw comparisons to Barry Sanders. The only knock on Bush is that some scouts are worried that his 5'11" 200lb frame won't be able to handle 25 carries per game. He'll still produce on some level, and my bet is that Bush will be an all-pro RB very soon. He'll be the #1 pick in the draft.

2. Laurence Maroney -- Minnesota -- Maroney had a fine 2005 season as the feature back in the Minnesota offense. His mixture of power running and breakaway speed will give an NFL offense options on how to use him. Maroney does an excellent job of not forcing the play. His patience has led to several long runs on broken plays. He could stand to gain 15lbs on his 5'11" 210lb body. His receiving skills weren't used at Minnesota at all, so an NFL team will have to guess whether or not he'll contribute in the passing game. Maroney will be drafted in the mid to late first round.

3. Joseph Addai -- LSU -- Addai is a burner, whose stock fell after ankle injuries in 2005. He ran a 4.41 40-yd dash at the combine, and is a threat to find the end zone whenever he has the ball. He uses his good receiving skills, and is a superb route runner. At 5'11" 215lbs, he could use a little more bulk, but he fears nobody, and picks up the blitz wonderfully. If he can shake knee injuries that hindered him in college, he should be a starting RB in the NFL, and potentially an all-pro regular.

4. LenDale White -- USC -- Overshadowed by teammate Reggie Bush, White led the country in scoring with 26 touchdowns. At 6'1" and 240lbs, White could become a surprise carrying a full load for an NFL team. He doesn't possess great speed, but he'll run defenders over and secures the football well. White's body type and receiving skills are along the same lines as Jerome Bettis, who didn't have a bad career. White will be a first round pick, but in the bottom half.

5. DeAngelo Williams -- Memphis -- One of the most prolific backs in college football history, Williams is one of the fence riders of the draft. On one hand, he could surprise and become one of the top players of the draft... or he could wither into anonymity. He's prototypically a little too small (5'9" 214lbs) and a little too slow (4.55 40-yd dash) so it's hard to say what his impact will be. He can line up as a RB or a slot WR, so he'll be used in many different situations. Health is another issue, but he was able to stay on the field during nagging injuries in college.

6. Gerald Riggs Jr. -- Tennessee -- At 5'11" 232lbs, Riggs has the size to play effectively in the NFL. He's a large, speedy back who is difficult to tackle in the open field. He has great vision, much like his NFL all-pro father Gerald Riggs Sr. He's never shouldered an entire season because he's been behind several good runners at Tennessee, so durability is a concern. His body should hold up, and if he finds a way into a starting lineup, he'll shine.

7. Brian Calhoun -- Wisconsin -- I'm not sure what the buzz over Calhoun is, but he'll be a dual threat RB in the NFL. He became the second player in Big Ten history to surpass 1000yds rushing and 500yds receiving in the same season. He doesn't have breakaway speed, but he's elusive enough to make tacklers miss. He was a track star at Wisconsin after transferring from Colorado, before he was eligible to play football. He has a nice set of tools, and should be a third or fourth round selection.

Moulds to Texans

2006-04-04T18:55:00.000-07:00

With the Houston Texans acquiring Eric Moulds, reportedly for a fourth or fifth round draft choice, this gives the Texans an opportunity to field a very talented, versatile offense in the upcoming season. With the expectation being that the Texans will select Reggie Bush with the first overall pick in the draft, the Texans will have added the aforementioned Bush and Moulds. The fantasy impact on Moulds may not be significant as the players that could benefit the most from these moves are number one receiver Andre Johnson and quarterback David Carr.

The additions of Moulds, along with the assumed selection of Bush, would surround Carr and Johnson with enough talent to make a significant fantasy splash. Johnson, who flashed his potential in the 04-05 season with his 1,142 yards to go along with six touchdowns, could regain those numbers with Moulds, Bush, and returning running back Domanick Davis drawing the attention of opposing defenses. In David Carr's case, surrounding a quarterback with more talent is always a good thing, and he has an opportunity to significantly improve on his numbers from last year. 3000 yards passing and 20 plus touchdown passes are very attainable for Carr this year now that he has options. You can expect Moulds, who will be 33 years old when the season starts, to be the number two receiver, and end up with numbers similar to last year when he posted 814 yards and 4 touchdowns.

A New Contributor

2006-04-04T16:00:00.000-07:00

I'd like to officially welcome Brandon Netiuk as a contributor to the site. Brandon is a senior at Eastern Illinois University and will be graduating this year with a journalism major. He currently practices his writing trade as the sports editor for the Daily Eastern News, the newspaper of the university.

Brandon brings a wealth of fantasy knowledge to the site. He has won many fantasy leagues in baseball, basketball and football, and as a sports trivia buff, there are few better. With more than 10 years of fantasy experience, Brandon has proven that he belongs with the elite fantasy players and writers.

You will be seeing frequent contributions from Brandon, along with joint collaborations with me on more in-depth issues. He'll be a welcome asset to the site, and I look forward to working with him to bring you the best in fantasy coverage.

NFL draft preview -- QB

2006-04-02T22:30:00.000-07:00

Here are my rankings for the best NFL draft prospects at QB. These rankings will be based on the player's overall talent level and chance to have a good pro career. They will not take into consideration draft order or needs of current NFL teams. That will be assessed after the draft in the updated fantasy rankings.

1. Matt Leinart -- USC -- When the sun sets on the careers of Leinart and Vince Young, Matt will have the most jewelry. Leinart is one of the most complete college QB to enter the NFL in many years. He stands 6'4" and has excellent vision and coverage reading ability. His accuracy is unrivaled at the college level, and he'll immediately be one of the top-10 most precise passers in the NFL. Leinart would be the #1 pick in the draft 15 out of every 16 years... but this is the one that he won't.

2. Vince Young -- Texas -- Young might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he looked pretty intelligent carving up the USC defense in the Rose Bowl. He has a combination of size and speed never seen before at the QB position. While his mechanics still need work, he'll run past defenses and use his legs to create passing opportunities. It will be interesting to see how he's used in the NFL, as the only QB near his athleticism is Michael Vick, and he has struggled to find a passing niche. Young could fall as far as #10 to Arizona if the Titans and Raiders pass on him.

3. Jay Cutler -- Vanderbilt -- Cutler watched his stock soar at the NFL combine, when Vince Young and Matt Leinart didn't participate. He has a huge arm, and can thread a needle with middle routes. He has excellent mechanics and vision, and could end up being the best QB in this draft. Cutler wasn't well known until late in the season, but playing in the SEC won't hurt his draft stock. He'll run just enough to satisfy you, but not too much to make him an injury risk. Some mock drafts have him as high as #3 to the Titans.

4. Brodie Croyle -- Alabama -- The complete tear of his right ACL in 2003 concerns me, but he seemed to be healthy last year and only threw four INT on the season. He has tremendous arm strength, and his quick release helps him avoid sacks. His college career was interrupted several times by injury, and he could stand to add about 20 pounds of muscle to his 6'2" frame. If he gets with the right system, he could produce numbers and surprise a lot of people.

5. Omar Jacobs -- Bowling Green -- Like Croyle, Jacobs has been injured several times throughout his college years. He probably should have stayed in school for his senior season, but his ridiculous sophomore year (4,000 yards, 46TD, 4 INT) lends to the fact that he can produce right away. He's one of the best athletes in the draft, and his touch on short passes is rivaled by few. He won't be drafted very high, but look for a team with an established QB to draft him as a project.

6. Reggie McNeal -- Texas A&M -- McNeal has the total package, but on a lesser scale than Vince Young. He has average size (6'2") and good speed, and makes very few mistakes. A true leader, he shows good field vision and awareness. He's an excellent passer on the run, and he can see the whole field from any point on it. He might be a steal for a team looking for a starter in 2008.

Top Sleeper -- Barrick Nealy -- Texas State -- Nealy is a big QB with a strong arm from Division I-AA Texas State. He won't get a lot of publicity, but he has a chance to become an NFL starter. In addition to being able to throw the deep ball, Nealy had five 100+ yard games rushing. At 6'4" and 230 lbs, he should be a durable backup for an NFL team.

2006 K rankings

2006-03-30T19:07:00.000-08:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league K rankings as of the end of March... rookies are not included in the rankings until after the NFL draft. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season. There will be updates as the offseason continues...

1. Shayne Graham -- 28 -- the injury to Carson Palmer could help Graham, because the Bengals might stall more drives in the red zone... look for another season of 120+ points. He's the best bet to lead the league in points.
2. Neil Rackers -- 30 -- Rackers always had a booming leg, and he finally put it all together last season, setting an NFL record with 40 field goals. Don't expect a repeat, but 120 points should be within reach.
3. Jay Feely -- 30 -- missed three FG in a November game against Seattle, but otherwise had a strong season... with the Giants offense improving under Eli Manning, look for more XP, but less FG.
4. Adam Vinatieri -- 33 -- The Colts will give him enough opportunities to get 120 points, but almost half of those will come on XP. Vinatieri hasn't made a FG from 50+ since 2002, but kicking in a dome for half of his games won't hurt at all.
5. Nate Kaeding -- 24 -- almost identical numbers to 2004... Kaeding is ready to take a moderate step up, probably to 120 points. His accuracy will remain around 84-86% and if the Chargers lean on him, he'll produce.
6. Jeff Reed -- 27 -- he's only missed six out of 69 career kicks under 40 yards, but you won't see a lot of long boots... Reed will be drafted too high because of his playoff publicity, but he won't hurt you no matter where he's drafted.
7. John Kasay -- 36 -- the accuracy slipped a little, but Kasay still offers two or more kicks from 50+ and great accuracy under 40. Carolina will score points, so Kasay will hit enough XP to clear 110 points.
8. David Akers -- 31 -- injuries made his numbers look sub-par, but he wasn't 100% after he returned... With the Eagle offense a little less exciting with the departure of TO, look for his totals to take a slight hit. Ask for 110 points and don't expect more.
9. Lawrence Tynes -- 28 -- it all depends on the KC offense... with Larry Johnson scoring more than Wilt Chamberlain, Tynes has 102 XP in two seasons. Look for 45 more, coupled with 25 FG, and hope the Chiefs can't find the end zone as much.
10. Jeff Wilkins -- 34 -- Wilkins was 4-4 from 50+ in December, adding to an already solid season. The injury to Marc Bulger didn't hurt Wilkins any, and he's probably got three more productive seasons in his leg.
11. Mike Vanderjagt -- 36 -- the days of long bombs are over, but Vandy could convert 30 FG if the Cowboy offense sputters. With Terrell Owens on board, Vandy is a lock to score 100+ points for the ninth consecutive season.
12. Olindo Mare -- 33 -- with Culpepper in town, Mare should have more chances to score... Mare has always been a consistent kicker with one explosion in 1999. He'll score 110+ points again, and could surprise.
13. Josh Brown -- 27 -- he's the only major free agent kicker right now, and some team would be smart to pay Seattle the compensatory 7th round pick to acquire him... Brown showed a good leg last year, booting five FG of 50+, but his overall numbers were down. Watch to see where he lands...
14. Robbie Gould -- 23 -- was brutal from beyond 40 yards, but now that he's been through one season, his numbers should improve... Chicago can't get in the end zone, so it's a matter of getting Gould inside the 25 before stalling the drive.
15. Jason Elam -- 36 -- accuracy is declining and he doesn't hit as many long kicks, but I'd still take a chance on Elam... As long as Denver produces, he will get opportunities. He's kicked 39 or more XP in 10 of his 13 seasons with the Broncos, so we expect that again. If there are younger options available, grab them.
16. Rian Lindell -- 29 -- the touchdowns vanished in Buffalo, but Lindell's numbers didn't... Even if the Bills score 45 touchdowns next year, Lindell's numbers will be nearly the same. 100-110 points is safe.
17. Jason Hanson -- 36 -- suffered through a terrible 2005 by the Detroit offense... Hanson is entering his 15th season ni Detroit, and with a new QB and rising stars at RB and WR, Hanson could pop into the top-10... or he could end up with 85 points again.
18. Sebastian Janikowski -- 28 -- always a mystery... Seabass was awful last year, converting only 7-15 FG of 40 yards or more. This comes after two excellent seasons in 2003-04 when he made 20-25 from the same distance. If you like rollercoasters, this ride is for you.
19. Matt Stover -- 38 -- an oldie, but a goodie... If the Ravens keep him and can't find the end zone again, Stover will continue to impress. He hasn't missed an XP since 1996, so you won't get stupid penalties in your league from Stover. Look for 100 points again.
20. Joe Nedney -- 33 -- had a great season for a 49er... That being said, his 97 points in 2005 didn't help you much. He was 10-10 from 40-49 yards, so if he gets more chances, Nedney could score 120 points... but he won't get more chances.
21. Rob Bironas -- 28 -- nice rookie season saw him hit almost 80% of his FG... With the Titans offense looking sour, Bironas won't be a top-tier fantasy kicker anytime soon. He has the accuracy and distance to perform well if the team starts winning.
22. Matt Bryant -- 31 -- not a good longball guy, but was 18-19 between 30-49 yards... It was the kicks under 30 or over 50 that was a problem. Doesn't make a lot of sense, but then your strategy didn't either if Bryant was your main guy.
23. Ryan Longwell -- 32 -- had a great nine year run in Green Bay, and should benefit from kicking half his games in a dome... Longwell suddenly found his stroke from 50+, but he won't have many chances this season with a below average Vikings offense.
24. Kris Brown -- 29 -- this could be too low for Brown, but I'll wait to see what the Texans do with the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft... Brown is a career 76% kicker, so he isn't a stud even with a good offense. He's hit a FG from 50+ in all seven years of his career.
25. Josh Scobee -- 24 -- Scobee is on the same career path as Kris Brown, which probably isn't a good thing. More touchdowns by the Jaguars was the only reason for his bump in points. Until he shows that he can hit 85% of his attempts, find someone else.
26. John Hall -- 32 -- Hall can't seem to stay healthy, and it might have something to do with the 250 pounds he runs at the ball on every kick. If he plays 16 games, he'll get his usual 105 points, but why would you draft an injury risk at kicker?
27. Ryan Rossner -- 24 -- huge leg in the Neil Rackers mold... If he gets the starting job, he could be a nice sleeper. Rossner was worked out by a few teams, and landed in Atlanta. He scored a perfect 1600 on his SAT, but you don't care.
28. Phil Dawson -- 31 -- becoming one of the league's most accurate kickers... Dawson doesn't score a lot because Cleveland has been bad for many years. His mental lapses have resulted in six missed XP in his career.
29. Mike Nugent -- 24 -- Nugent had a disappointing rookie year, but it's mostly the fault of the terrible Jets offense. The bad news is that the Jets haven't made any moves to make you think they will be any better. Expect more of the same... about 90 points.
30. Billy Cundiff -- 26 -- Cundiff is right on the cusp of being unemployed. He has a career 73.2% mark, and doesn't bring anything special to the table. If the Packers stay healthy, he could break into the top-20 just on opportunities.

Burleson to Seahawks?

2006-03-25T06:10:00.000-08:00

In a move dubbed "bizarre" by one NFL general manager, the Seahawks have signed restricted free agent WR Nate Burleson to a 7-year, $49 million offer sheet. The terms of the contract are the exact same as that signed by Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson, who ended up with the Vikings after the Seahawks lost an arbitration case challenging provisions of the contract.

This is a ridiculous move for the Seahawks, especially if it is done to prove a point. Burleson has one good season under his belt, and was terrible when given the #1 position last season. Maybe a change of scenery will help, but the Seahawks are making a terrible mistake with the length and amount of this deal.

Keyshawn to Panthers

2006-03-24T06:26:00.000-08:00

It appears that the Carolina Panthers and WR Keyshawn Johnson have agreed to a four-year deal that will pay Johnson up to $19 million. The contract has yet to be signed, but reports say an agreement was reached Thursday night.

If the deal goes through, it will give the Panthers a true #2 WR opposite Steve Smith, and relieve pressure off of Jake Delhomme. Keyshawn will be 34 once the season starts, but he's never had a full season less than 70 catches. The deal seems pricey for an aging WR, but he'll give the Panthers at least two solid years.

Vandy to Cowboys

2006-03-24T06:19:00.000-08:00

The Cowboys filled a hole in their special teams by signing former Colts K Mike Vanderjagt to a three-year deal worth approximately $6 million. Vanderjagt is the all-time NFL leader in field goal accuracy, but wore out his welcome in Indianapolis by making comments against the organization and Peyton Manning.

It seems like a good fit for the Cowboys, who lost three games in 2005 by three points or less. Their 6-10 record was disappointing, and they've already signed Terrell Owens to boost the offense. Compared to the deal Adam Vinatieri got from the Colts, this looks like a steal for Dallas.

I have to wonder... does this make anyone else think that Bill Parcells is trying to become like the teacher who purposely took all of the bad kids in his class because he thought he could change them? Usually, those teachers end up retiring or switching districts... TO vs. Parcells or Vandy vs. Parcells could be the best storyline in Dallas in 2006.

2006 TE rankings

2006-03-24T05:49:00.000-08:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league TE rankings as of the middle of March... rookies are not included in the rankings until after the NFL draft. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season. There will be updates as the offseason continues...

1. Antonio Gates -- 26 -- the clear #1 TE... everyone asked Gates to prove that 2004 wasn't a fluke, so he registered his first 1000 yard season in 2005. He has tremendous hands to go with an agile, big frame. Even Phillip Rivers will be able to keep him on top of the TE world. Nobody is close to him right now.
2. Jeremy Shockey -- 26 -- Shockey had a good season by TE standards, but he wanted the ball more often than he got it. Still, 65-891-7 isn't a bad output. He should continue building rapport with Eli Manning, and will take the next step to a 1000 yard season.
3. Tony Gonzalez -- 30 -- Gonzo was still #2 in catches and yards among tight ends, but only two touchdowns? He might be starting to decline ever so slightly. He only had nine catches for 20 or more yards, compared to 19 in 2004. He could erupt again, but expect 75-850-7 and you'll be happy.
4. Jason Witten -- 24 -- He's only 24, and he already has two excellent seasons under his belt. Witten's 2005 numbers fell off a little from his 87-980-6 in 2004, but he still scored six touchdowns and improved his yards per catch. With TO on board, Witten could be more effective as the #2 option in the Dallas offense.
5. Todd Heap -- 26 -- It's still hard to believe that he produces in that terrible Baltimore offense... had the best season of his career in 2005, posting 75-855-7. That will probably be the ceiling for Heap, but you won't be upset if he does that every season until he's 32.
6. Kellen Winslow -- 23 -- If the injuries are healed, and Charlie Frye likes tight ends, Winslow will be special. He's a physical freak, and he will be impossible to cover for a linebacker. He has the ability to make everyone on the offense better, just by his presence. Now he just needs a safer hobby...
7. Chris Cooley -- 24 -- He's now scored 13 touchdowns in 32 games, and has moved into the top-10. Cooley is a fantastic possession TE, who rarely goes deep into the secondary. Of his 108 career catches, only nine have gone more than 20 yards. He's efficient in the red zone, and that's what wins games.
8. L.J. Smith -- 26 -- should have flourished last season as the full-time starter, but didn't... Smith might benefit from Terrell Owens' departure, but it's hard to see him catching 80 passes. Look for his touchdown numbers to increase, but remain just below elite.
9. Heath Miller -- 24 -- Miller showed Big Ben that he should be trusted in the red zone. He's a big target, and with the Steelers slowly letting Rothlisberger open up the passing game, he should be productive for several years.
10. Randy McMichael -- 27 -- Battled issues off the field and his game showed it. Although he set a career high with five touchdowns, the rest of his numbers declined. With Daunte Culpepper calling the plays, look for a nice rebound season, and expect 70-800-6.
11. Alge Crumpler -- 28 -- Crumpler is the only guy that Mike Vick can find on a regular basis. His career 13.7 yards per catch shows that he'll go deep, but he needs to be more of a red zone presence. His 65-877-5 is about right, until Vick makes strides as a passer.
12. Jerramy Stevens -- 27 -- former 1st round pick was a nice surprise, scoring four touchdowns in the last six weeks of the season... he should be the full-time starter in 2006 and go over 60 catches for the first time in his career.
13. Dallas Clark -- 27 -- Clark didn't do anything to improve on his promising 2004 campaign. He's still the #1 TE target of Peyton Manning, but the Colts have too many other weapons for Clark to join the elite. Expect a mild statistical bump... he should get to 50-600-5 this year.
14. Ben Troupe -- 24 -- If he and Erron Kinney were one person, everyone would be happier. It was a toss-up as to who would be the better TE week in and week out. Troupe caught 55 passes last year, but only four went for longer than 20 yards. He'll play more underneath, which should mean more red zone touches.
15. Ben Watson -- 25 -- Watson can run... his 29 catches had an average of 15.2 yards per, which led all tight ends. If he could shake Daniel Graham from his spot, Watson could be dangerous. Both will play a factor in 2006, and Watson should end up around 45-600-5.
16. Eric Johnson -- 27 -- 2005 was the second time in three years that he's missed an entire season due to injury, but you can't ignore the 82 catches in 2004. If he's healthy, he'll put up numbers, even in a terrible offense. He's not a deep threat, but has solid hands and runs clean routes.
17. Alex Smith -- 24 -- scored two touchdowns on opening day, and didn't find the end zone the rest of the season... only averaged 9.0 yards per catch on his 41 grabs, but he'll get the tough yardage for the first down. He should be the Bucs #1 TE, and will reach 40 catches again, but not much more.
18. Jermaine Wiggins -- 31 -- 140 catches over the last two seasons, five touchdowns. If you like a player who gives you a little bit of yardage every week, Wiggins is your guy. If you prefer someone who scores more than once every six games, look higher on this list.
19. Erron Kinney -- 29 -- his numbers were identical to Ben Troupe's... the only reason Troupe is higher is because he's five years younger. Both possess good hands, and both have no downfield presence. Both won't catch 55 passes again, and I'm betting Kinney is the odd man out.
20. Courtney Anderson -- 26 -- a giant target who didn't meet expectations in 2005... Anderson had four games in which he started and didn't catch a pass. He should be a presence inside the red zone because of his 6'7" 270lb frame. He could be a sleeper candidate for 2006, or just asleep.
21. Eric Edwards -- 26 -- hasn't produced anything in his two years in Arizona, but he'll be the starter on one of the most potent offenses in the NFL... if he gets a chance to play full-time, Edwards could be a major surprise. Don't expect anything in 2006, but the future looks good.
22. Brandon Manumaleuna -- 26 -- a 300lb tight end? Manu played more like an extra lineman last year, catching 13 passes in 14 games. The Rams would like to use him more in their offense, but it would strictly be in the red zone and when they need to run over a secondary foe.
23. Doug Jolley -- 27 -- a sexy sleeper pick by many experts last season, Jolley lost touches and starts to Chris Baker... since Baker probably won't be back, Jolley has a chance for a rebound season. Could produce 50-600-5, or could lose his job to someone you've never heard of.
24. Daniel Graham -- 28 -- still scores about once for every six catches, the problem is that he only caught 16 passes in 2005... quickly losing his job to Ben Watson. If Graham gets traded, he could have a big impact in the right offense. If not, be careful.
25. Bubba Franks -- 28 -- Franks had his 2005 season cut short by head and neck injuries, but this isn't a trend. He hadn't missed a game in his career before that. If Brett Favre returns, Franks could crack the top-15 again. He has great hands, and he's Favre's favorite end zone receiver. While he averages just more than 20 yards per game for his career, he scored 27 touchdowns between 2001-2004.
26. Reggie Kelly -- 29 -- Kelly is primarily a blocking TE, evident by the fact that he's caught between 13-16 passes for the last five seasons. The Bengals want to get him more involved in the offense, which could mean 30-400-5, or it could mean 14 catches again.
27. Robert Royal -- 27 -- Royal will be the starter in Buffalo after four non-productive years in Washington. He's a big target with soft hands, and could catch four or five touchdowns in 2006.
28. Jeb Putzier -- 27 -- I'm sure he'll end up higher than this, but it's hard to rank a guy in the top-20 when he has only two career touchdowns and signed with the Texans. If David Carr moves the ball around and Putz gets in the action, he could be a 50-600-4 player.
29. Zach Hilton -- 26 -- could be the next big thing... already has the "big" part for it. Hilton checks in at 6'8" 277lbs and has good speed. If the Saints decide to use him full-time, he has a chance to be a top-15 TE this year, and better in the future. Honestly...
30. Desmond Clark -- 29 -- he never duplicated his 2001 season of 51-566-6, but he's still a good player. If Rex Grossman stays healthy and looks to Clark, he'll be a nice surprise. The bad news is that Grossman can't stay healthy, and he doesn't look to Clark...

Brooks to Raiders

2006-03-22T19:59:00.000-08:00

The Oakland Raiders potentially filled their empty starting quarterback spot by signing former Saints QB Aaron Brooks to a two-year deal, believed to be worth $11 million. He will be the favorite to claim the starting job going into the preseason.

Brooks has always been a good fantasy QB. From 2001-2004, he compiled more than 3500 yards and 20+ touchdowns every season. Last year, he was benched for the last three games, but still threw for 2882 yards.

With Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan on his side of the ball, Brooks could be a major sleeper for the 2006 season. He's always been on the verge of fantasy stardom, even though in the NFL, he's looked at as somewhat of an enigma. He doesn't lead his team to victory often, but you don't care, as long as the numbers are there.

Griese to Bears

2006-03-22T08:00:00.000-08:00

The Bears found a solid backup to Rex Grossman on Tuesday by signing QB Brian Griese to a contract that makes him a Bear until 2010. The 31-year-old Griese was owed a $2.6 million dollar bonus had he been retained by the Buccaneers. Instead, he was waived, and signed with Chicago.

Griese led Tampa Bay to a 5-1 record before a knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. He should be healthy enough by the time the preseason opens to challenge Grossman for Chicago's starting spot. The contract is lengthy, but it's a good move for a team that has struggled at the QB position over the last three seasons when Grossman has been injured.

Vinatieri to Colts

2006-03-22T07:54:00.000-08:00

The Indianapolis Colts signed K Adam Vinatieri on Tuesday to replace the loudmouthed Mike Vanderjagt. The terms of Vinatieri's deal aren't entirely known, but it is believed to be a contract paying him at least $11 million over the first three years.

Vinatieri has been one of the most successful kickers in NFL history, scoring 100 points or more in all of his 10 seasons in the league. By signing with the Colts, he should continue that streak. The contract is a little pricey for a 33-year-old kicker, but the fact that he'll be kicking in a dome could prolong his effectiveness. Look for Vinatieri to score 100 or more points for at least the next three years.

2006 WR rankings

2006-03-21T15:12:00.000-08:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league WR rankings as of the middle of March... rookies are not included in the rankings until after the NFL draft. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season. There will be updates as the offseason continues...

1. Larry Fitzgerald -- 23 -- evolved into the best young WR in the league... if Warner stays healthy, the addition of Edgerrin James only increases his value -- this is the #1 WR in fantasy
2. Steve Smith -- 27 -- I don't like Steve Smith. He's too small, he plays on a team with no #2 WR, and he has already lost a season to injury. That being said, he's a stud... a lock to be a top-10 fantasy WR
3. Chad Johnson -- 28 -- he's the #1 WR in the NFL, but with the injury to Carson Palmer, he falls a few spots... Johnson has already proven that it doesn't matter who throws him the ball, but he rose to elite status with Palmer calling the shots.
4. Terrell Owens -- 32 -- This Eagle landed in Dallas, and into a fantastic situation. The Cowboys needed a true #1 WR to complement Terry Glenn, and with the strong-armed Drew Bledsoe firing darts, TO should have two or three more elite years left... or he'll mentally implode and find himself delivering pizza by November.
5. Anquan Boldin -- 26 -- he'd probably be the #1 fantasy WR if he didn't have Larry Fitzgerald on the other side of the line... has racked up 259 catches in 40 career games. At that pace, he'll break Jerry Rice's career reception record by the time he's 35. Don't bet on 100 catches again, but 85-1300-12 is within reach.
6. Torry Holt -- 30 -- If Marc Bulger could stay healthy for a full season, Holt would be in the top tier of fantasy WR. He's been one of the most productive WR in the NFL over the last six years, and he is entering the career point where the speed diminishes, but the possession skills improve. Look for less catches, more TD this season, and beyond...
7. Reggie Wayne -- 27 -- He actually led the Colts in receptions with 83, but Marvin Harrison is still getting the looks in the red zone. That changes this season. The Colts invested big bucks into Wayne, and he'll respond with huge numbers. The loss of Edgerrin James will actually help the WR numbers in Indy...
8. Chris Chambers -- 28 -- already has good career numbers, and now has a franchise QB throwing to him... Chambers might not be a top-10 fantasy WR in 2006 because of Daunte Culpepper's injury, but he'll be among the elite in 2007 and afterward. Buy him cheap and hang on...
9. Hines Ward -- 30 -- The Steelers will always be a running team, but with the fantasy emergence of Ben Roethlisberger, Ward will continue to improve. He's quick enough to go the distance, and is a phenomenal possession receiver. He's in the middle of the prime years as a WR, so don't ask him for five more elite seasons, but expect three...
10. Randy Moss -- 29 -- He's still the most dangerous player on the field, but who will be throwing to him? If Joey Harrington lands in Oakland, Moss might move down 10 spots. Bid cautiously... huge upside if the Raiders sign a decent QB.
11. Andre Johnson -- 25 -- phenomenal talent, but was plagued by hamstring and leg injuries for almost all of 2005... if he stays healthy in 2006 and the Texans grab Reggie Bush in the draft, Johnson could be a top-5 WR. Johnson is a major sleeper in 2006... you'll never get him cheaper.
12. Roy Williams -- 24 -- This might be a little too high for him, but all Williams does is catch touchdowns in bunches. Now that he's going to have a decent QB throwing to him, he could join the elite. Having Charles Rogers and Mike Williams at his side doesn't help, but as long as the Lions look to him in the red zone, Roy's owners will be happy.
13. Marvin Harrison -- 34 -- He'll be the #2 target in Indianapolis in 2006, but he's racked up 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns for seven consecutive seasons... are you going to bet against him doing it again?
14. Plaxico Burress -- 29 -- Burress had an awful second half of the season, but his first half was good enough to make his overall numbers look decent. He developed a nice rapport with budding superstar QB Eli Manning, and Burress should be good for 80-1200-10 for the next few seasons.
15. Santana Moss -- 27 -- the poor man's Steve Smith, except the man wasn't so poor if he rode Moss's hot streak last season... odds are against Moss doing it again, but he's versatile enough to be a top-20 WR for several years. Mark Brunell's stats are sure to decline, and he will take Moss with him.
16. Javon Walker -- 28 -- coming off major knee surgery, I'm wondering if I have him ranked too high... if Brett Favre retires, Walker won't be a top-20 fantasy WR. He might not be anyways, at least not until 2007.
17. Darrell Jackson -- 27 -- it seems like he's been around forever, but he's only entering his 7th season... Jackson is always a health issue, but if he can stay on the field, you won't be disappointed in him 15 receivers into the draft. He was on pace for 101 catches last year, but expect 80-1200-9 in 2006 and you'll be happy...
18. Deion Branch -- 27 -- played a complete season for the first time in his career... barely missed 1000 yards on his 78 catches. He is due for a statistical increase, and I can see him moving into Santana Moss territory, with 85-1200-8 this year. If the injury bug comes back, jump ship.
19. Donte Stallworth -- 25 -- finally showed some skill after two disappointing seasons following a promising rookie year... Stallworth is one of the fastest WR in the NFL, and if he gets along with Drew Brees, the pair could put up gaudy numbers. Joe Horn will take a backseat to Stallworth in 2006, and Donte could jump up into tier 2 of fantasy WR.
20. Lee Evans -- 25 -- it all rests on the arm of JP Losman... if the two build rapport, Evans could score 20 touchdowns. Of his 96 career catches, 16 are touchdowns. He doesn't have a great presence inside the red zone because he's only 5'9", but he's a threat to score from anywhere.
21. Braylon Edwards -- 23 -- i know this is high, but once this kid recovers from a torn ACL, he could take the league by storm... Edwards is a 6'3" beast, who has the speed and vision to become a top WR in the NFL. Browns QB Charlie Frye will realize that Edwards should be a red zone terror. Watch the knee and bid accordingly...
22. Laveranues Coles -- 28 -- Coles actually put up decent numbers despite a season-long foot injury and playing with a terrible offense. The health of Chad Pennington will tell the tale on the 2006 season of Coles... keep in mind, he's caught 73 or more passes in four consecutive seasons.
23. Reggie Brown -- 26 -- he's young, he's agile and he's the new #1 target of Donovan McNabb... that makes him automatically a top-25 pick. Brown could surprise a lot of owners, depending on who lines up with him. With the Eagles RB catching so many passes out of the backfield, Brown should have room to test secondaries in 2006.
24. TJ Houshmandzadeh -- 29 -- be honest -- how many of you didn't draft him because you couldn't say his name? Housh's season rides on Carson Palmer's knee. Unlike Chad Johnson, who will catch 90 passes if I'm throwing the ball, Housh erupted once Palmer became the full time starter. If the knee is healed, mispronounce his name at the draft and laugh all season...
25. Donald Driver -- 30 -- Driver's touchdown total was cut in half after the injury to Javon Walker. While this isn't a good sign, it proves that he's a natural #2 receiver, but falters as the star. Even at that, if you can get a guy 25 WR into the draft that has gone 170-2429-14 in the last two seasons, that's acceptable...
26. Drew Bennett -- 28 -- since his explosion over the last five weeks of 2004, Bennett has been mediocre... he missed a few games to injury, but didn't come close to maintaining his pace from the season before. He's still a 6'5" receiver and should be the #1 target for whoever the Titans trot out at QB.
27. Derrick Mason -- 32 -- if Mason could find the end zone, he'd be a top-5 WR... he's averaged 86-1136 over the last five seasons, but has only scored 32 touchdowns, including three in 2005. Mason will continue to produce, as long as he can catch balls over the middle and turn the corner. Expect a season of 75-1000-5 and you won't get burned.
28. Rod Smith -- 36 -- his AARP application is in the mail, but he's still producing... Smith had his best season since 2001 last year, and who's to say he can't do it again? Over his nine years as a starter, he's averaged 86-1165. It says here that he has two more good seasons left.
29. Joe Horn -- 34 -- he's only one year removed from 94-1399-11 but he looked awful when healthy last year... It will be interesting to see how Horn's numbers will change with the arrival of Drew Brees. He's only been a starter for six years in the NFL, so he has a few more miles left on his legs.
30. Joey Galloway -- 34 -- he'll be 35 on November 20, so this might be too high for him... He revived his career in 2005 by posting 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns for the first time since 1998. If health stays on his side, there is no reason he can't do it again.
31. Nate Burleson -- 25 -- just terrible last year after a promising 2004... Burleson is still young, and seemed to become more interested once Brad Johnson took over the QB duties late in the year. A great sleeper pick 30 WR into your draft, because he could return to 2004 form.
32. Antonio Bryant -- 25 -- It pained me to see him sign with the 49ers, because I think he's a phenomenal talent who hasn't been given a chance to shine yet. Unless Alex Smith has a breakout season, it will be at least two years until Bryant is a major fantasy contributor.
33. Terry Glenn -- 32 -- could benefit greatly from the signing of TO... Glenn looked like the next big thing during his rookie campaign in 1996. The bad news is that 1996 was his best season. Don't expect a repeat of 1996, but his 2005 numbers of 62-1136-7 could be close.
34. Mike Williams -- 22 -- huge talent, bad system... Williams is an enigma. He's the physical clone to Terrell Owens, but his situation might prohibit him from becoming a star. With three 1st-round draft picks at WR, whoever throws for Detroit should single Williams out as the main red zone threat.
35. Jerry Porter -- 28 -- can't get over the 1000 yard hurdle, although he did catch 76 passes last year... Porter would benefit from a healthy Randy Moss and a decent replacement for Kerry Collins. He's still young enough to blow by defensive backs, but without a diversion, he's just an average receiver.
36. Ernest Wilford -- 27 -- rising star showed his nose for the end zone with seven touchdowns in only 41 catches... Wilford could take over as the #1 option for Byron Leftwich in 2006, and he will have several other weapons around him. He's another great sleeper pick this deep into the draft. Look for a minimum of 65-900-8 and you won't be disappointed.
37. Troy Williamson -- 24 -- I just like his size and his speed, and that's the only reason he's ranked this high. The Vikings had to see something in him when they passed on Mike Williams to grab him in the 2005 draft. I see it too, but he needs a chance... he'll be a star by 2008.
38. Kevin Curtis -- 28 -- I don't honestly know what Curtis is worth. If Isaac Bruce stays healthy and Curtis goes back to being #3, he could be completely worthless. Since that probably won't happen, he has value. Reminds me a little of ex-Bear Tom Waddle...
39. Mark Clayton -- 24 -- had a great December, but otherwise a rookie season to forget... Clayton has a chance to be a very good NFL WR, but he won't give too much in the fantasy world because of the system he plays in. He could catch 70-80 passes in 2006, but I'd be surprised to see more than five touchdowns.
40. Michael Clayton -- 24 -- a complete bust after a great rookie season... Clayton should be ranked higher, but I can't trust him to show up. If he's on, a return to 2004 numbers is attainable. If not, he'll drive you crazy again...
41. David Givens -- 26 -- he's still young, but he didn't do anything in New England to make me think he'll become a star... Givens is an average-sized, average-speed WR who might just need a starting job to produce. Or he might need a new profession.
42. Ashley Lelie -- 26 -- took a giant step back after a nice 2004 campaign... Lelie is still a deep threat, averaging 17.9 yards per catch, but he fell out of favor with Broncos coach Mike Shanahan early and never recovered. Look for him to bounce back, but proceed with caution.
43. Charles Rogers -- 25 -- Rogers has been called the most talented of the "big three" in Detroit, but he's played a total of 15 games in three seasons with the Lions. Let someone else take the chance that 2006 is the year he stays off IR.
44. Muhsin Muhammad -- 33 -- wow... what a difference a system can make. Went from 93-1405-16 in 2004 with Carolina to 64-750-4 in 2005 with Chicago. 2006 won't be much better, as the Bears will look to develop young WR talent. Avoid Muhammad and you'll be happy later.
45. Michael Jenkins -- 24 -- Andre the Giant could play WR for the Falcons and Michael Vick still couldn't hit him... Jenkins is 6'4" and has good hands, but he seems to be the victim of a bad passing QB system. If he were to pop up on another squad, he could be a top-25 WR. Until then, avoid all WR from Atlanta.
46. Brandon Lloyd -- 25 -- bad attitude preventing him from becoming a very good NFL player... The Redskins will have to tame Lloyd, and convince him that he'll play second fiddle to Santana Moss. If he responds well, he could put up nice numbers.
47. Matt Jones -- 23 -- I thought the Jaguars blew their first round pick, but it turns out Jones can play. He would probably be best suited as a TE on passing downs, and a WR otherwise, but Jacksonville wants to use him as a decoy. That's fine by me, as long as he scores.
48. Eric Moulds -- 33 -- The good: caught 494 passes in the last six years. The bad: he's 33 years old and Buffalo doesn't seem to want him. He still has some gas in the tank, but he'd be better suited as a possession receiver and red zone threat.
49. Cedrick Wilson -- 27 -- not what the Steelers thought they were getting... Wilson is an undersized WR with a huge contract, so Pittsburgh will try to mold him into a #2 WR opposite Hines Ward. Wilson doesn't block very well, so the experiment might fail.
50. Keyshawn Johnson -- 34 -- Recent rumors have him back in New York, but the charismatic WR isn't elite anymore. It'd be a bad idea for anyone to "give him the damn ball" in 2006.
51. Justin McCareins -- 27 -- now has two disappointing seasons under his belt in New York. McCareins was closer in 2005 to the deep threat that the Jets thought they had; 12 of his 43 catches went for more than 20 yards. If the Jets solve their QB woes, McCareins could finally have a 1000 yard season. Don't bet the farm on it, though...
52. Brandon Stokley -- 30 -- When the Colts offense tripped out of the gates, so did Stokley, and he never recovered. He didn't score until week 10, and then not again the rest of the season. He's the #3 option in Indy, and you can expect something between his 2004 and 2005 numbers. 53. Koren Robinson -- 26 -- Robinson made a great comeback from alcoholism and went to the Pro Bowl as a kick returner. That doesn't do squat for you in your fantasy league, but if the Vikes ever decide to use him as a #3 receiver, he could post nice digits. Still young enough to gamble on... but not while drinking....
54. Isaac Bruce -- 33 -- He's had a great career as a Ram, including seven seasons with more than 1000 yards. 2006 won't be his eighth, so avoid him like the plague.
55. Jabar Gaffney -- 25 -- Probably will start the season as the #3 WR in Philly, but could produce numbers as a deep threat. Gaffney had four eerily similar seasons in Houston, so I'm looking for a mild improvement.
56. Mark Bradley -- 24 -- Bradley missed a good chunk of his rookie year with an ACL injury. The Bears second round pick in the 2005 draft is a phenomenal athlete, who could flourish if Rex Grossman stays healthy. This could be a sleeper for 2007.
57. Tyrone Calico -- 25 -- I gushed over Calico's size and speed after the 2003 NFL draft, but he's produced nothing in three seasons. Injuries and lack of a starting spot have inhibited his progress. If he can stay on the field, he could be the bounce back player of the year.
58. Chris Henry -- 23 -- Henry had six touchdowns in his rookie season and gave Carson Palmer a big target as a #3 WR. He will continue to improve and force the Bengals to use more three receiver sets. If Palmer is 100%, Henry could give you 55-600-7 or better. A good gamble for the future.
59. Samie Parker -- 25 -- disappointing season after all of the preseason hype... Parker was bothered by leg injuries for part of the season. The Chiefs passing offense wasn't up to the levels of the previous three years, and don't look for an immediate rebound.
60. Roddy White -- 24 -- see #45 Michael Jenkins... except White is 6'0" and faster than Jenkins. Otherwise, same situation...
61. Eddie Kennison -- 33 -- still gets behind the defenders, even at 33... Kennison has back-to-back seasons of 1000+ yards, and he's averaged more than 15 yards per carry each of the last five years. Even with those numbers, avoid him. It won't continue.
62. Amani Toomer -- 32 -- had a nice run between 1999-2003, and his seven touchdowns will tease people, but this Toomer has burst... look younger for your #4 or #5 fantasy WR.
63. Bryant Johnson -- 25 -- the third wheel on a two-wheel bicycle... Johnson has a ton of talent, but the two WR in front of him aren't bad either. If he gets into the lineup somehow, he'll be a top-30 WR. If not, just more of the same.
64. Joe Jurevicius -- 31 -- Cleveland? He's going to Cleveland? Jurevicius finally had a monster season in 2005, scoring 10 touchdowns and providing the Seahawks with a much needed red zone target. So he signs with Cleveland. Check, please...
65. Robert Ferguson -- 26 -- Watch Ferguson closely. He is Javon Walker, circa 2003. All he needs is a chance to play, and he could erupt into a superstar. Ferguson has put up consisent, unspectacular numbers as a #3 WR for the last four seasons. Is this his year?
66. Jimmy Smith -- 37 -- another great career along the lines of Rod Smith, coming to an end... Smith is hanging on for dear life now, but his final numbers of 70-1023-6 don't look too bad. The Jaguars have several options waiting in the wings to take over the #1 spot, and I'd be surprised if Smith is any better than #3 by the time the 2006 season ends.
67. Reche Caldwell -- 27 -- another receiver that I've been singing praise for over the last three years, yet he's amounted to nothing... The only reason he cracks the top-70 is that Tom Brady throws to everyone, so he could catch five touchdowns on accident.
68. Arnaz Battle -- 26 -- Battle is nothing special, especially playing for the 49ers. He's another tall Notre Dame WR that hasn't amounted to much in the NFL yet. 2006 shouldn't be any different.
69. Antwaan Randle El -- 27 -- The Redskins gave him a giant contract, so you'd be inclined to think they'll use him. With Santana Moss, he'll be part of the shortest starting WR unit in the NFL. He's valuable on punt returns, but that doesn't get you far...
70. Marty Booker -- 30 -- scored two touchdowns in the last three weeks to save an otherwise miserable season... The addition of Daunte Culpepper can't hurt him.

Bradley Braves in Sweet 16

2006-03-19T18:00:00.000-08:00

A little off the topic, but I'd like to congratulate my alma mater, Bradley University, on making it to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA basketball tournament. BU entered as a 13 seed, and upset 4th seeded Kansas in the first round and 5th seeded Pittsburgh today. The Braves will face the #1 seed Memphis on Thursday. Good luck and congrats to the Braves...

T.O. to Cowboys

2006-03-18T18:17:00.000-08:00

Terrell Owens will provide more entertainment for the crowd in Dallas, but this time he'll be a member of the home team. The Cowboys signed Owens today to a 3-year, $25 million contract, starting a new chapter in the life story of the controversial receiver.

There is no doubt that Owens can still produce; he was on pace for more than 1700 yards and 14 touchdowns last season before suspensions and a deactivation ended his season with the Eagles. The question will be whether or not he'll abide by the rules of head coach Bill Parcells, and shut his mouth long enough to lead the Cowboys back to the playoffs after a miserable 6-10 season.

Owens will have to become friends with Drew Bledsoe, because the rest of the QB situation in Dallas looks bleak. Bledsoe has never had a WR of Owens' caliber on his side, and he should continue to improve his hall of fame credentials. If the Cowboys can improve their line, and Julius Jones provides a stable backfield presence, the offense in Dallas could carry them a long way.

Bennett to Saints

2006-03-17T14:37:00.000-08:00

The New Orleans Saints bought an insurance policy for RB Deuce McAllister today by signing free agent RB Michael Bennett to a 2-year, $3 million contract. This is a great acquisition for the Saints, as the elusive Bennett is still young enough to do quite a bit of damage, should he get playing time. He becomes one of the more valuable reserves in the fantasy world, and with the signing of QB Drew Brees, the Saints offense looks much improved from a horrid 2005 season.

This signing adds more steam to the theory that the Colts, who lost Edgerrin James to the Cardinals and have not re-signed Dominic Rhodes, will look to fill the RB hole in the draft. Joseph Addai from LSU and DeAngelo Williams from Memphis look to be the best options from the RB that will be available with the Colts' late first round pick. Both are good receivers and both have elusiveness out of the backfield. Look for more information on these and other prospects in my upcoming NFL Draft preview, ETA mid-April 2006.

anonymous posters

2006-03-17T12:22:00.000-08:00

For those who are posting comments on my articles, I appreciate it. I'd love it if you'd leave your names, so I know who is reading this. You can do that by clicking on the "other" button and leaving your name. You don't have to leave a website address if you don't have a site.

Of course, if you choose to remain anonymous, that's your right...

FA signings analysis/grades

2006-03-16T20:36:00.000-08:00

More thoughts on the signings referenced in the previous post --

1. Corey Bradford -- I'm not sure what Detroit was thinking, by paying Bradford this much money. If the Lions' "big three" WR of Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Roy Williams stay healthy, then Bradford will be the highest paid 4th WR in NFL history. GRADE = D

2. Jabar Gaffney -- This could turn out to be a very good signing for the Eagles. We don't know yet what they paid, but I can't imagine it's much. Gaffney set a career high last year with 55TD, but he has only 7TD in 64 career games. He's a durable, good-sized receiver who could start the season as the #2 or #3 WR in Philly. GRADE = B

3. David Givens -- This is a lot of money for an oft-injured, average WR. Givens is a jack of all trades, master of none type receiver, who is a good #3 for a good team. The problem is that the Titans are not good, and Givens was paid like a #1. With Drew Bennett as their top option, Givens is a huge risk at #2. GRADE = C-

4. Koren Robinson -- The upside: if he has good guidance, he can return to the player who caught 78 passes in 2002. He was a pro bowl kick returner last year after never returning a kick in his life prior to the season, so we know he can adapt to new things. The downside: $12.7 million can buy a lot of liquor... GRADE = C

5. Jeff Garcia -- The Eagles wanted to protect Donovan McNabb, and Garcia wasn't in the Lions' plans. He'll be playing for his fourth team in as many years, but this is a good fit for his talent. Assuming McNabb is healthy after sports hernia surgery, Garcia shouldn't see a lot of time on the field. If he does, he'll be ready. GRADE = B

6. Jon Kitna -- My thought is that Kitna will begin the season with the starting job. He's proven that he can win games, and his numbers in the 5 full seasons that he's played are respectable. That being said, he will be 34 during the season, and could be pushed by Josh McCown... but the pieces are there. GRADE = B

7. Josh McCown -- Oh, what a great pair of receivers will do for a guy... In six starts last season, McCown cleared 290 yards four times. He's going to Detroit, the only team with arguably a better three receiver set than Arizona. If he can move Jon Kitna out of the way, and his WR corps stays healthy, he could be a top-10 fantasy QB. GRADE = A

8. Sage Rosenfels -- Besides having a funny name, Rosenfels only has 6 career TD passes. What he did to deserve a 4-year contract, I don't know. Sage is a big kid with good vision, but he's never had a chance to show his stuff. If one of the 144 times that David Carr will be sacked knocks him out, Rosenfels could surprise. I still think this is ridiculous, though... GRADE = D

9. Todd Collins -- He's thrown 27 passes in the last 8 years. Somehow, that was enough to earn a multi-year contract. He'll be 35 during the season, and is currently stuck behind Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey. If the Redskins trade Ramsey, Collins moves up the list. If he ever gets in a game, don't waste your time watching. GRADE = D

FA signings 3/16

2006-03-16T20:13:00.000-08:00

It seems like the majority of free agent signings over the last 48 hours have been wide receivers and quarterbacks. Here are a few of the key names who inked new deals --

1. Corey Bradford to the Lions for 4 years, $7.4 million
2. Jabar Gaffney to the Eagles for 1 year, money undisclosed
3. David Givens to the Titans for 5 years, $24 million
4. Koren Robinson to the Vikings for 3 years, $12.7 million
5. Jeff Garcia to the Eagles for 1 year, money undisclosed
6. Jon Kitna to the Lions for 4 years, $11 million
7. Josh McCown to the Lions for 2 years, $6 million
8. Sage Rosenfels to the Texans for 4 years, $6.4 million
9. Todd Collins to the Redskins for 2 years, $2.5 million

Brees to Saints

2006-03-14T13:02:00.000-08:00

Free agent QB Drew Brees has signed a 6-year, $60 million deal with the New Orleans Saints on Tuesday, reacting to the trade between the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings that included QB Daunte Culpepper moving to the AFC. Brees joins a talented, but much maligned offense that features Deuce McAllister, who is coming off a severe injury, and WR Donte Stallworth and Joe Horn.

The Saints have the #2 pick in the NFL draft in May, and were expected to select USC QB Matt Leinart, but this signing could mean the Saints will look in a different direction with the pick, and still have the option to trade it. Their offensive line could use bolstering, and if McAllister doesn't return to 100%, they might look to a younger RB.

Culpepper to Dolphins

2006-03-14T12:41:00.000-08:00

The Miami Dolphins acquired QB Daunte Culpepper from the Minnesota Vikings on Tuesday in exchange for a second-round draft pick. Culpepper had long been rumored to be leaving Minnesota, and it has been said here for many weeks that Miami would be a great fit for his talent. With RB Ronnie Brown and WR Chris Chambers, the Dolphin offense could rebound into a nice unit for head coach Nick Saban.

This will turn out to be a great trade for the Dolphins, who picked up a franchise QB at a time when his trade value is the lowest it will ever be. Between sex scandals, emails with ownership and a falling out in the community, a change of scenery is what Culpepper needed. He should return to top-3 QB status and remain an elite option for many years.

Who's left for the Colts?

2006-03-13T19:23:00.000-08:00

As the big name free agents at RB are signed, the Colts need to make a move soon. With Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, and Chester Taylor off the board, many Colts fans are wondering who will run the show.

There are still several good RB prospects available that fit with the Colts offense. Among those are Michael Bennett, Travis Henry and LaBrandon Toefield. Look for the Colts to sign two or three RB to make up for the loss of James. I believe they'll give Bennett a strong look, and possibly try to back him up with Henry, Dominic Rhodes, Toefield or former Seahawks backup Maurice Morris.

FA signings analysis/grades

2006-03-13T18:45:00.000-08:00

Here are my thoughts on the FA signings in the last three days --

1. Edgerrin James -- I can see why the Cardinals did this, but it leaves JJ Arrington without a job. I thought they might invest money in a QB, but they decided to pay for a top RB to go with their excellent WR corps. A 4-year contract for a 28-year-old RB with a lot of mileage is risky... GRADE = B+

2. Jamal Lewis -- I'm not too sure about this deal... the Ravens made Lewis the highest paid RB in the NFL based on yearly average. Yes, this means higher than Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson. He's coming off his worst season, but he'll only be 27 on opening day. Too much dough for a whack job though... GRADE = B-

3. Antwaan Randle El -- Another head-scratcher... the Bears offered Randle El a 6-year, $18 million dollar contract, so Daniel Snyder decided to give an extra year for $13 million more. Randle El's career best in receptions is 47 in his rookie year. He is a threat in many facets of the game, but he's never scored more than 3 touchdowns in any season. GRADE = D

4. DeShaun Foster -- After seeing the deals that Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James got, this seems like a steal for the Panthers. Foster is just 26, and has only 377 NFL carries on his legs. He should be a stud fantasy RB for several years. He wanted to stay in Carolina, and the Panthers took advantage of that. GRADE = A

5. Mike Anderson -- He will be 33 in September, but would you bet against Anderson rushing for 1000yds and 10TD if Jamal Lewis goes down? He's only carried the ball 865 times in the NFL, and he puts up numbers, including 41 career TD. That being said, would you sign a 33-year-old RB to a 4-year contract? GRADE = C

6. Chester Taylor -- He will be the frontrunner for the starting job, but the Vikings needed help in other areas. They have several RB under contract, including the versatile Mewelde Moore. It's hard to see why Taylor wouldn't want to go to a team where he would be the unchallenged #1... GRADE = C

7. Ryan Longwell -- Green Bay will miss Longwell, who had only two seasons below 80% accuracy in nine years on the frozen tundra. The Vikings think he has several good years left, and it solves a kicking problem that has plagued them since Gary Anderson left. GRADE = B

8. Ron Dayne -- Why not? If Mike Shanahan ran himself, he'd probably rack up 1200 yards. He says that Dayne might be the starter going into camp, but don't believe it. Tatum Bell is the real deal. Dayne will contribute, but he needs to keep his weight down to be effective. GRADE = B-

9. Antonio Bryant -- He obviously chased the money, because I don't see the 49ers offense turning around for a few years. Bryant is a tremendous young talent who averages 15 yards per catch for his career. He went over 1000 yards last year for a terrible Browns offense. If Alex Smith matures, he has a good #1 receiver to build rapport with. GRADE = A-

10. Joe Jurevicius -- He turned a career year into a nice free agent deal. Jurevicius only had 13 career TD before exploding for 10 last year. He will start for the Browns next year, but unless Charlie Frye decides to make a 31-year-old journeyman his #1 receiver, fantasy owners should proceed with caution. GRADE = C

FA signings 3/13

2006-03-13T18:16:00.000-08:00

Here are the 10 biggest FA signings in the last three days, in order of fantasy importance:

1. Edgerrin James to the Cardinals for 4 years, $30 million
2. Jamal Lewis to the Ravens for 3 years, $26 million
3. Antwaan Randle El to the Redskins for 7 years, $31 million
4. DeShaun Foster to the Panthers for 3 years, $14 million
5. Mike Anderson to the Ravens for 4 years, $8 million
6. Chester Taylor to the Vikings for 4 years, $14.1 million
7. Ryan Longwell to the Vikings -- terms undisclosed
8. Ron Dayne to the Broncos for 3 years, money undisclosed
9. Antonio Bryant to the 49ers for 4 years, $15 million
10. Joe Jurevicius to the Browns for 4 years, money undisclosed

Javon Walker

2006-03-10T05:19:00.000-08:00

Packers WR Javon Walker told ESPN on Thursday that he wants out of Green Bay. "I just don't feel like this is the best place for me to be right now," said Walker, 27, preparing to enter his sixth pro season. "I really have no interest in being in a Packers uniform or playing for Green Bay again."

If I'm Al Davis, and I have Randy Moss already, should I make trades for Daunte Culpepper AND Javon Walker? This would create a dream offense, with Lamont Jordan carrying the ball alongside these crybabies. We'd all have an office pool to decide what week the team implodes...

Javon Walker was a top-3 fantasy WR in 2004 before his devastating injury in 2005. Whatever team he ends up with will get a player in the prime of his career. Watch to see where he lands before mortgaging the farm on him...

More Culpepper rumblings

2006-03-09T05:07:00.000-08:00

Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper has asked to be traded or released by the team before the beginning of next season. Culpepper, who when healthy is arguably one of the top 4 fantasy QB, said he is unhappy with the plans of the team, and if he isn't traded before the season starts, he would like his contract to be terminated. Culpepper signed a 10-year, $102 million dollar contract in 2003.

It's officially time for Zygi Wilf, the new owner of the Vikings, to find a new home for the league's newest high-profile crybaby. Culpepper could land anywhere, but look for him to find a team that needs QB help, or have a disciplinarian head coach in place. How about a Culpepper to Owens combination in Baltimore? He will more than likely end up in Miami or with the Raiders. I've said all along that Miami is a perfect fit for him, with a good young running game and a marquee WR in Chris Chambers.

RB signings

2006-03-06T12:10:00.000-08:00

Two marquee RB are off the market after re-signing with their old teams over the weekend. Shaun Alexander signed an 8-year $62 million deal with the Seahawks, and the Packers signed Ahman Green to a one-year contract, believed to be valued at around $4 million.

My thought is that Seattle made a huge mistake. I know that Alexander is coming off the greatest individual season by a RB in NFL history, but he'll be 29 on opening day, and the contract will last until he's 36. He won't be in the NFL in 2014. I think the Seahawks could have used that money to shore up holes in their defense, or get WR help for Matt Hasselback.

Green Bay made the right move, signing Green to a conservative contract. Green is also 29 and hoping to stay healthy after two consecutive injury-marred seasons. Remember, he's only two years removed from a season of 2250 total yards and 20TD, so he could have one or two more years left in his legs. The Packers hope so...

Stay tuned to see what the effect of these two signings is on the rest of the free agent market. WR rankings and updated numbers for QB and RB will be out soon...

Reggie Wayne

2006-02-22T20:51:00.000-08:00

The Colts have announced the signing of WR Reggie Wayne to a 6-year $39 million contract, making him one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL. Wayne led the Colts with 83 receptions in 2005 and his deal includes a $13.5 million signing bonus. He should continue to slowly take the lead role in the Colts passing offense from Marvin Harrison. Expect a 2006 season of 90 catches, 1200 yards and 10 TD, making him a top 10 fantasy WR.

Ricky too smoky?

2006-02-20T10:32:00.000-08:00

Several major news outlets, including the Miami Herald, are reporting that Dolphins RB Ricky Williams tested positive for drug use for the fourth time in his career. Specific details are not available, but if the rumor is true, Williams would face a minimum of a one-year suspension by the NFL. Williams was tested 10 times per month during his return stint in 2005, in which he ran for more than 700 yards and scored 6 touchdowns in limited time. This could open the door for a huge season by second-year RB Ronnie Brown...

Daunte Culpepper for Jamal Lewis?

2006-02-16T13:45:00.000-08:00

A report from the Minneapolis Star Tribune today said that after demanding a $10 million pay raise for the 2006 season, Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper was placed on the trade block by the team. A consequent report from the Baltimore Sun said that the Ravens are considering placing the franchise tag on free agent RB Jamal Lewis, then trading him to the Vikings for Culpepper. Both players have been rumored to be seeking a change of scenery, and Culpepper's arrival in Baltimore would boost the worst passing game in the AFC over the last three seasons. Stay tuned for more details...

Kurt Warner

2006-02-15T12:01:00.000-08:00

The Cardinals on Tuesday signed Kurt Warner to a three-year extension, meaning he will be the starting QB going into camp. This shouldn't affect his ranking any, as he is still a question mark to stay healthy. If he plays all 16 games, he should be a top 12 fantasy QB. He has two of the best young WR in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and a good young RB in J.J. Arrington, who is poised for a breakout season.

2006 RB rankings

2006-02-13T20:56:00.000-08:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league RB rankings as of early February... rookies are not included in the rankings until after the NFL draft. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season. There will be updates as the offseason continues...

RB
1. LaDainian Tomlinson -- 27 -- still the king of the hill, but only because he's younger than Alexander and we know where he's playing in 2006
2. Shaun Alexander -- 29 -- if he goes to a team with a good offense, he will be #1... at 29, he should start to decline soon
3. Larry Johnson -- 27 -- had the most yards in a season after November 1 in the history of the NFL last year, so he's a safe bet for 100ypg and 15TD
4. Clinton Portis -- 25 -- still only 25, he broke out in his second year as a Redskin... look for more involvement in the passing game and less alter egos
5. Edgerrin James -- 28 -- won't be back with the Colts, but still has two or three stud years left as long as his new team uses him correctly
6. Steven Jackson -- 23 -- the young stud will hopefully play an entire season with a healthy Marc Bulger; without him, Jackson was useless
7. Rudi Johnson -- 27 -- Cinci's offense has a great future with Carson, Chad and Rudi... the new "CCR" should be rollin' for several years
8. Lamont Jordan -- 27 -- led all running backs in receptions, and scored a few on the ground as well... a healthy Randy Moss will cut his receptions, but open up running lanes
9. Willis McGahee -- 25 -- only 5 touchdowns last year as the Bills played musical chairs at QB; with some stability at signalcaller, he'll return to top 5 status
10. Cadillac Williams -- 24 -- he's young, he's tough and his coach loves him... you should too, as long as the Buccaneer offensive line stays together
11. Tatum Bell -- 25 -- 33-year-old Mike Anderson can't go forever, and Bell showed enough last year that Mike Shanahan will make him a superstar
12. Julius Jones -- 25 -- battled injury and Marion Barber last season, but still has youth and a run-minded coach
13. Ronnie Brown -- 24 -- he won't be sharing time with Ricky Williams, and if Miami acquires Daunte Culpepper, he'll have more opportunities
14. DeShaun Foster -- 26 -- came on strong at the end of the season after Stephen Davis went down; needs to stay healthy and hold on to the ball
15. Tiki Barber -- 31 -- had the second most all-purpose yards ever last season... at 31, I doubt he'll come close to matching that
16. Chris Brown -- 25 -- was a victim of injuries all around him last year; if the Titans can keep a healthy QB and offensive line, he'll be a star
17. Corey Dillon -- 32 -- age is catching up to him, but his 12 touchdowns last year show that he is a goal line threat, and a powerful inside runner
18. Kevin Jones -- 24 -- one year ago, everyone thought he was the next big thing, but nagging injuries and a quarterback controversy will prove everyone wrong; rebound of the year candidate
19. Willie Parker -- 25 -- this ranking is probably too low for a budding star on a Super Bowl winning team, but I'd like to see him score touchdowns before making him a top-10 pick
20. Brian Westbrook -- 27 -- we'll see how he responds to injury and not having TO to deflect some of the attention in the passing game
21. J.J. Arrington -- 23 -- huge bust as a rookie, but with a tremendous receiving corps around him and two above average quarterbacks, he can't be that bad again
22. Cedric Benson -- 23 -- this is a gamble, but if Thomas Jones can run wild in Chicago, Benson can too; they spent too much on him to let him sit another season
23. Deuce McAllister -- 27 -- injuries, hurricanes, outspoken team officials... not a lot went right for Deuce in 2005; if he comes back healthy, he is a good sleeper pick
24. Warrick Dunn -- 31 -- he's getting old, but still produces... I don't like the fact that he's the #3 option at the goal line, but total yards are still there
25. Domanick Davis -- 26 -- Davis owners are on Reggie alert; if the USC star goes to Houston, Mr. Davis will be looking for a job... maybe to the J-E-T-S?
26. Jamal Lewis -- 27 -- I love Jamal Lewis. Everyone else hates him. He was a superstar not long ago; he looked disinterested and disoriented last season after a terrible offseason... watch to see where he lands and buy him... you'll never get him cheaper... could be 15 spots higher
27. Frank Gore -- 23 -- multiple knee surgeries in past years hinder his top gear, but he performed well in a terrible 49ers offense... major sleeper if SF improves at all
28. Ahman Green -- 29 -- lost for the season due to injury, it's hard to say what his future holds... his QB might be retiring, and GB loses a key offensive lineman each offseason
29. T.J. Duckett -- 25 -- still only 25, he's a giant man waiting for a chance at a full-time job... with Dunn and Michael Vick getting carries, he's only a good goal line option for now
30. Mewelde Moore -- 24 -- the best of a crowded backfield in Minnesota; he provides an electric spark when he's in the game
31. Thomas Jones -- 28 -- I have a hard time believing that he'll be the starter, but if he his, a repeat of 2005 could be in order
32. Ricky Williams -- 29 -- I hate Ricky, you hate Ricky, we all hate Ricky, but he can still run... watch to see who takes a chance on him
33. Lee Suggs -- 26 -- if healthy, he's Cleveland's best running back, and together with Charlie Frye, the Browns could have a formidable offense
34. Greg Jones -- 25 -- he's big, angry and wants the ball, and this is the year Jacksonville gives it to him... potential sleeper if the Jags give him 20+ carries per game
35. Chester Taylor -- 27 -- free agent running back will get a starting job somewhere... has fresh legs and could surprise much like Lamont Jordan did
36. Priest Holmes -- 33 -- "And now... the end is near..." - A Hall-of-Fame run for Holmes is close to the end... think Marshall Faulk in 2005 and don't expect more
37. Fred Taylor -- 30 -- could have been one of the best, but injuries hampered a once promising career... we'll miss you Fred...
38. Mike Anderson -- 33 -- and you thought Shanahan was joking when he said "Mike Anderson is my starter" for 2005; he will be joking in 2006 now that the Bell has tolled
39. Travis Henry -- 28 -- still has good legs after doing nothing the last two seasons... could be a starter in Tennessee or moved somewhere else
40. Cedric Houston -- 24 -- all NFL teams start a running back in their offense... for now, he's the man for the Jets, but watch free agency and the draft closely
41. Chris Perry -- 24 -- former Michigan star is a good backup to Rudi, and catches passes when used as a third down back... if Rudi goes down, he could be a top 12 RB
42. Onterrio Smith -- 25 -- the Whizzinator aside, Smith is looking for big things in 2006; expect a trade to give him a chance at starting
43. Michael Turner -- 24 -- speed demon from Northern Illinois showed he can produce if LT is injured... don't bank on much production in 2006
44. Marion Barber -- 23 -- battled with Julius Jones for time in the Dallas backfield last year... Jones should assume the starter's role, but watch this race
45. Marcel Shipp -- 28 -- not a gifted runner by any means, but if he's named the starter in that high-powered Arizona offense, he becomes a top 20 RB
46. Kevan Barlow -- 27 -- confidence and performance slipped after losing the job to Frank Gore... if he isn't the starter, he might land on a different squad
47. Curtis Martin -- 33 -- he's so old, dirt calls him "dad" -- Hall-of-Famer might have one more Emmitt-like 800yd, 8TD season left in him... or he might start collecting Social Security
48. Michael Bennett -- 28 -- still has the speed, but doesn't have the job... if he lands somewhere as a starter, he'll be injured after four games
49. Michael Pittman -- 31 -- drug and personal problems behind him, he contributed when asked last season... he should remain Cadillac's backup and produce when in the game
50. Brandon Jacobs -- 24 -- less than 40 carries last year, but 7 touchdowns... this 265lb back could see more time with Tiki Barber getting no younger
51. Shaud Williams -- 26 -- will be primary backup to Willis McGahee, and if slick Willie goes down, is quick enough to do some damage... at 5'7", he's hard to bring down
52. Ladell Betts -- 27 -- had some success behind Clinton Portis, but with CP entrenched as the franchise back, Betts would have a better chance starting elsewhere
53. Ryan Moats -- 23 -- wasn't supposed to get any playing time last year, but the 5'8" rookie from LSU gained more than five yards per carry and should be the backup to injury prone Brian Westbrook
54. Justin Fargas -- 26 -- I don't know why he's this high on the list, except that he still has speed and needs a chance to show his skills
55. Nick Goings -- 28 -- every year I say he won't contribute because he's buried on the depth chart and every year he produces... I'll say it again: avoid him
56. Dominic Rhodes -- 27 -- probably won't be the starter in Indianapolis, but it's worth watching to see who the Colts bring in as a starter
57. Verron Haynes -- 27 -- should be the backup to Willie Parker next year... doesn't bring anything special to the table, but the Steelers run so much that he could produce
58. Vernand Morency -- 26 -- young runner could be the backup to Reggie Bush in Houston, could be fourth on the depth chart, or could be in your flag football coed league next year
59. Maurice Morris -- 26 -- speedy kick returner not likely to get a starting gig, in Seattle or anywhere, but if the Seahawks have an open competition, he could shine
60. Arlen Harris -- 26 -- will emerge as the #2 guy in St. Louis, which could get him a few token carries and some third down catches
61. Adrian Peterson -- 27 -- with a healthy Cedric Benson, AP isn't likely to see many carries, but if Thomas Jones is traded, he's a valuable backup
62. Artose Pinner -- 28 -- a bull of a running back, he figures to get a few carries in 2006, if not serve as the primary goal line back
63. Samkon Gado -- 23 -- something about being undrafted from Liberty doesn't sit well with me... do you honestly believe he'll have a good sophomore year in the NFL?
64. Ciatrick Fason -- 23 -- decent sized back in a muddy picture in Minnesota; he actually led the team in rushing TD with 4 in only 32 carries
65. Anthony Thomas -- 27 -- still some fuel left in the train... watch where he plays in 2006 and if he can function as a backup
66. Tyson Thompson -- 25 -- currently #3 in Dallas, but he's a big back in the Eddie George mold who returns kickoffs... could have significant time if Jones and Barber are injured
67. Derrick Ward -- 26 -- the Giants like his 5'11" 233lb frame and his ability to cut to the outside... if Tiki goes down, Ward and Brandon Jacobs could be the new Thunder and Lightning
68. Alvin Pearman -- 24 -- good third down back caught 32 balls last year in limited playing time, but fumbles knock his stock down
69. Ron Dayne -- 28 -- I know... here come the fat jokes... but maybe it's time to take him seriously; he played last year at 245lbs and could get carries in 2006 in a potent Denver offense
70. Stephen Davis -- 32 -- walked with Moses... actually was 2nd in the NFC last year with 12 touchdowns, but should retire, paving the way for DeShaun Foster as the full time back

2006 QB rankings

2006-02-12T12:52:00.000-08:00

Here are the 2006 keeper league QB rankings as of early February - rookies will be ranked after the NFL draft. The number after the player's name indicated his age for a majority of the 2006 season. Stay tuned for updates as the offseason continues...

QB
1. Peyton Manning -- 30 -- still the best in the business, if Edgerrin leaves, needs a top-tier RB via free agency
2. Tom Brady -- 29 -- solid and consistent, and the best-looking QB on the board
3. Eli Manning -- 25 -- a future Peyton, but still gets carded at PG-13 movies
4. Donovan McNabb -- 29 -- if TO leaves, could drop; coming off sports hernia surgery, so watch closely
5. Michael Vick -- 26 -- can't pass, but you don't care; just draft his feet and pray
6. Carson Palmer -- 26 -- shredded knee knocks him down a few spots, but Chad is the best in the business
7. Daunte Culpepper -- 29 -- suddenly not looking like a top 5 QB anymore; needs a #1 receiver... maybe landing in Miami?
8. Ben Roethlisberger -- 24 -- most efficient 24-year-old in history not named Marino
9. Matt Hasselback -- 31 -- if Alexander leaves, could drop... needs his receivers to hang on to a pass every now and then
10. Marc Bulger -- 29 -- a top 5 pick when healthy, a top 5 frustration when injured
11. Jake Delhomme -- 31 -- can't rely only on Steve Smith forever, but he'll try
12. Byron Leftwich -- 26 -- good young receivers, just needs a healthy season and a decent running game
13. David Carr -- 27 -- if he has Reggie on his side, look out... Carr, Bush and Andre Johnson could be the next "big three"
14. Drew Brees -- 27 -- still don't like him, but with LT and Gates, he performs
15. Jake Plummer -- 31 -- if Denver gets TO, he moves up 5 spots
16. J.P. Losman -- 25 -- young, mobile leader with good vision and great legs
17. Kurt Warner -- 35 -- best WR corps in the game; can this MVP stay healthy enough to lead the Cardinals to the playoffs?
18. Trent Green -- 36 -- still producing, despite no real WR target; as long as Larry Johnson is healthy, he will have opportunities
19. Kerry Collins -- 33 -- with a healthy Moss, he's a better QB; without a healthy Moss, he'll start drinking again
20. Drew Bledsoe -- 34 -- one of the most underrated QB ever; doesn't mean anything in fantasy
21. Brett Favre -- 37 -- talks of retirement hinder ranking, so do the 29 INT
22. Chad Pennington -- 30 -- has to stay healthy one year, right?
23. Brian Griese -- 31 -- should be the starter on a good TB offense, but watch for Simms
24. Rex Grossman -- 26 -- could put up decent numbers, or could miss the season with another injury
25. Billy Volek -- 30 -- always performed as backup; is this his year?
26. Aaron Brooks -- 30 -- no job security, but decent numbers; needs to shut his mouth and win games
27. Mark Brunell -- 36 -- has weapons, but Father Time is on the patio
28. Alex Smith -- 22 -- has no weapons, but is young and learning
29. Charlie Frye -- 25 -- if Winslow returns and Bryant stays, he has two quality weapons; if not, they'll be Cleveland again
30. Steve McNair -- 33 -- been hit more times than an old car at a homecoming rally
31. Aaron Rodgers -- 22 -- if Favre retires, he rises a few spots; health of receivers is important
32. Josh McCown -- 27 -- performed well when Warner went down
33. Gus Frerotte -- 35 -- without Chambers, he'd be pumping gas
34. Chris Simms -- 26 -- not yet like his father, but could blossom as starter
35. Joey Harrington -- 28 -- good receivers, but like anyone else in Detroit, he might lose his job
36. Patrick Ramsey -- 27 -- once promising, now hoping for a chance
37. Kyle Boller -- 25 -- the Ravens hate him, but he has time on his side
38. David Garrard -- 28 -- agile QB needs a starting job
39. Trent Dilfer -- 34 -- still hanging around with bad teams
40. Ryan Fitzpatrick -- 24 -- any QB from Harvard deserves a ranking

2006 rankings coming soon...

2006-02-11T08:38:00.000-08:00

I will have updated 2006 keeper league rankings posted soon... the NFL combine will be running Feb. 22-28, so watch to see which college players elevate their stock. With the draft on April 29, we'll be able to tell what players will have a breakout rookie season. Stay tuned...