sleeper picks -- QB

These are my top-5 quarterbacks who will surprise owners with a solid season. Several rookies last year planted the seed for 2006, and with stars like Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb facing question marks, you might find better value by waiting and grabbing one of these guys.

1. Kurt Warner -- Arizona Cardinals -- Warner has only played in 22 games in the last three seasons, but if he can stay on the field in 2006, he'll have a fantastic chance to be a top-6 QB this year. With Edgerrin James in the backfield, the Cards finally have a running threat to complement stud receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's the biggest risk/reward pick at the position this year, but I'll take the chance about 12 QB into the draft.

2. David Carr -- Houston Texans -- Carr has frustrated ambitious owners who are looking for him to become the next version of Peyton Manning. He took a big step backwards last year, but with the addition of Eric Moulds and help coming to the offensive line, he should return to numbers similar to the 2004 season, when he threw for more than 3500 yards. He's a good player to draft as a backup and hope he blossoms into good trade bait. He's a good pick about 16-20 QB into the draft.

3. Charlie Frye -- Cleveland Browns -- If he wins the job outright, he could make some waves. His season will depend on the health of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. If they can play without too much pain or loss of ability, Frye will have two huge, excellent weapons. Joe Jurevicius is also big, and broke through with 10 TD last year. If the running game can be consistent, Frye is a good pick for 2006, and a great one for 2007.

4. Phillip Rivers -- San Diego Chargers -- Rivers will try to replace Drew Brees, who threw 51 TD in the last two seasons. He will start the season without competition, and he should have a good season, if only because he has LaDainian Tomlinson behind him and Antonio Gates to throw to. Rivers has only thrown 30 passes as a pro, but he should be ready to take charge of a very good offense. He's another good value pick as a QB2, and has a good chance to sneak into the top-15.

5. Chris Simms -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Simms didn't light up the world last year in 10 starts for the Bucs, but he will improve this season as the running game matures and his younger receivers get more reps. Cadillac Williams looked like a superstar last season, and he'll help give Simms openings to throw. He'll be a surprise if he can stay healthy enough to utilize the skills of Joey Galloway and revive Michael Clayton. He won't be one of the top-20 QB on draft day, but pick him as your backup and watch him become a solid player.