Wednesday, June 28, 2006

most overrated -- QB

I'm leaving Mike Vick off this list for one reason: he's NOT overrated. Vick finished in the top-8 in many leagues. The knock is that he's a bad passer, which is true. He'll frustrate you to death with his 11-27 119yds 0TD 2INT games... but his legs make him a true weapon. He finished with almost 600 yards rushing and six TD; only David Carr surpassed 300 yards rushing, and Ben Roethlisberger ranked second in TD with three. Vick is one of the few players who can win a week for you by himself, which makes him special. If you can put up with the bad weeks, the good ones will be that much better.

These guys are the most overrated fantasy QB this year:

1. Peyton Manning -- Indianapolis Colts -- This probably looks crazy, but he's overrated. Several major publications last season had him as one of the top-5 overall picks, and he didn't even turn out to be the #1 QB. With the loss of Edgerrin James, defenses can focus more on the passing game. He will be the first QB drafted in almost every league, but there are much better value options. Don't get me wrong -- he's still Peyton Manning and he'll probably finish with 4000+ yards and 30+ TD, but if you draft him before a RB in the first round, you are nuts.

2. Donovan McNabb -- Philadelphia Eagles -- He was still a very good QB before Terrell Owens, but many will still rank him in the top-5 and he doesn't deserve it. He has no proven receivers and with injuries mounting, his running game will be diminished. McNabb will have to prove that the events of 2005 are in the past and that he can succeed again without a true #1 WR. I'm not expecting big things this year, and you shouldn't draft him in the top-6 QB.

3. Mark Brunell -- Washington Redskins -- Brunell started the season on fire, throwing 12 TD in his first five starts, but in his last seven games, he never made it to 200 yards. People will look at his total numbers (3050 yards, 23 TD) and think that he's a viable fantasy starter, but he isn't. He's 35 years old, has a history of injuries and several average receivers. If he stays healthy, he'll frustrate you by falling apart late in the season again. Hope that he gets hurt to save you the heartache... or just don't draft him.

4. Jon Kitna -- Detroit Lions -- I think that Josh McCown is a better QB than Kitna, but the Lions will go with the veteran to start the season. Experts are giddy about the Detroit offense with a trio of first round receivers, and budding star RB Kevin Jones. This should make Kitna a good fit, right? Wrong. He hasn't played much since 2003, and he'll be 34 this year. Kitna was never a superstar, and his career numbers aren't impressive at all. With McCown knocking on the door, Kitna's stay at the top could be short. Draft him only as a QB2 and watch the situation.

5. Chad Pennington -- New York Jets -- Why does everyone believe that Pennington will be good again, even if he's healthy? The Jets feature a 71-year-old RB (Curtis Martin) and two average receivers in Laveraneus Coles and Justin McCareins. Plus, they traded for Patrick Ramsey and drafted Kellen Clemens in the second round this year. Even if he can stay on the field, you won't get a reliable fantasy starter. If you must draft him, make it late and be sure that your starter isn't injury prone.

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