Thursday, June 29, 2006

most overrated -- RB

There aren't many RB that didn't have their situation altered in some way during the offseason. Several top backs lost key members of their offense or changed teams, and others had off-field problems. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player because of his name or recent history. Do the homework and find the bargain buys. These guys are not the bargain buys.

1. Tiki Barber -- New York Giants -- He was one of my bust picks last year, and he produced one of the best yardage seasons in NFL history. That means he'll automatically be ranked too high. He's 31 now, and his workload has increased each of the last three seasons, including 411 touches last year. That's too many for an older back, and this is the year he starts to break down. Many publications have him as the #4 or #5 overall player... I think you can do better by trading down for more value.

2. Corey Dillon -- New England Patriots -- Dillon turned in a good season last year when he was on the field, scoring 12 TD in 12 games. His overall fantasy numbers looked good, but they masked the truth. He averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and his effectiveness in short yardage situations declined. The Pats drafted Laurence Maroney to take his place, and that might happen this year. Dillon will still be the goal line back, but if you are looking for a good starter, look somewhere else. If you do pick Dillon, make sure to back him up with Maroney.

3. Ron Dayne -- Denver Broncos -- Mike Shanahan says that Dayne is his #1 guy right now. Don't believe that will last long. Dayne hasn't made a habit of being very good, and his 3.7 yards per carry career average won't cut it in Denver. With Tatum Bell waiting to erupt as a superstar, I can't see how Shanahan will give more than 5-10 carries per game to Dayne. That being said, it is Denver, and anything can happen...

4. T.J. Duckett -- Atlanta Falcons -- With any luck, the Falcons will trade Duckett to someone who can give him more carries. He has a terrible yards per carry average, and he's not good catching passes out of the backfield. He does have 31 career TD in 54 games, but someone always looks at his freakish body and touchdown totals and picks him too high. Usually I'm that person, but not this year. With draft pick Jerious Norwood on board, and Warrick Dunn signed to an extension, Duckett's role appears to be diminishing. Draft him late and hope he gets dealt.

5. Willis McGahee -- Buffalo Bills -- It's hard to put him here, seeing that he's rushed for almost 2400 yards in his first two seasons. I just don't like what Buffalo is doing on the offensive side of the ball. They had a chance to get a better WR to complement Lee Evans, and ended up with Peerless Price. Unless this is 2002 all over again, the Price thing won't be too successful. With problems at QB and an average offensive line, McGahee's numbers could plateau at about 1400-1500 total yards and 6-8 TD. That's not too bad, but he's not a top-10 choice with those numbers. If he's your RB1, make sure your #2 is strong.

1 Comments:

At 9:02 PM, July 08, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

since when is dayne overrated?

 

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