NFL draft analysis -- WR

There were 33 receivers drafted, and despite 2006 becoming a draft that was weak at WR, several teams filled holes by picking a receiver late in the draft. Many fell farther than projected, as teams looked to defense and other skill positions before drafting wideouts. Rookie receivers don't usually make good fantasy players, but there are exceptions... just not this year. Let's look at the top picks:

Santonio Holmes -- #25 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers will have to avoid comparing him to Antwaan Randle El, who they lost to the Redskins in the offseason. Holmes is a little bigger, but not as elusive. He was the only WR chosen in the first round, and he should step in as the #3 receiver in Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean that he'll get a lot of touches until he supplants Cedric Wilson in the starting lineup. Look for him about 40 receivers into your draft.

Chad Jackson -- #36 pick to New England -- Jackson fell 15-20 picks farther than most expected, and the Patriots jumped at the opportunity to grab him in the second round. He'll probably be the most productive of the rookies because he's already the second best receiver in New England. Jackson has the raw talent to be a star in the NFL, but probably could have used one more year of polish. If he breaks the starting lineup by the end of the season, he'll have nice numbers in 2007.

Sinorice Moss -- #44 pick to the New York Giants -- Moss is a great fit in New York, but not on your fantasy team. Besides being too small, he's in an offense where he'll be no better than the fifth option to catch passes. He will make major contributions as a kick returner, so if your league rewards for special teams touchdowns, the Giants just got a little better. If Amani Toomer can't stay healthy, Moss could crack the starting lineup, but won't give you great production.

Greg Jennings -- #52 pick to Green Bay -- This was an interesting pick for the Packers, who traded away Javon Walker on draft day. Jennings is a small receiver who isn't a burner, but can make plays in the open field. He adds help to the kick return team, but he'll start the season as the #4 WR in Green Bay. Jennings probably won't give you more than 20 catches this season, but he could improve greatly if given the chance in 2007.

Travis Wilson -- #78 pick to Cleveland -- The Browns reached for Wilson, although there were five WR picked in the third round, so he might not have made it to the fourth. Wilson is 6'2" 215lbs, but he doesn't do anything particularly well. He doesn't have breakaway speed, and he hasn't learned how to use his body in traffic. Cleveland doesn't have great receivers, so Wilson might play more than he should. If you pick him, it better be late in the draft, or you're in trouble.

Derek Hagan -- #82 pick to Miami -- Hagan will be the best receiver drafted in the third round. I've changed my tune on him a little since the preview article, because after watching film, he's developing into a physical red zone target. He has great hands and runs precise, crisp routes. With Daunte Culpepper in Miami, and Marty Booker standing between Hagan and a starting job, he could be the surprise producer of 2006. Most of the owners in your league won't know who he is... take advantage of that.

Brandon Williams -- #84 to San Francisco -- Williams is already the second best WR in San Francisco, and that's not good for the 49ers. He lacks size and speed to be a productive receiver, and unless he adds 15+ pounds to the 171 he's already carrying, bigger defensive backs will abuse him. That being said, he is a very smart player who knows how to get open, and he has very good hands in traffic. He won't add anything to your fantasy team in 2006, or probably ever.

Maurice Stovall -- #90 pick to Tampa Bay -- Stovall is an intriguing prospect because of his size, and the lack of depth at WR in Tampa. He doesn't have NFL speed, and he isn't particularly quick. He does run excellent routes, and should be a terror in the red zone. If Michael Clayton comes out of the gate awful again, the Bucs might throw Stovall in to see what he can do. You shouldn't follow suit, unless he's clearly their #2 guy.

Willie Reid -- #95 pick to Pittsburgh -- Reid will make the team, but probably only as a special teams player. He didn't produce anything at Florida State until his last season, and he's too small to be used as anything but a kick returner immediately. The Steelers have at least four receivers in front of him on the depth chart, so don't get too excited.

Others who were drafted:

Michael Robinson -- #100 pick to San Francisco -- He played QB in college, and he buried on the depth chart. Bad.

Brad Smith -- #103 pick to the New York Jets -- Smith is another college QB who doesn't have the speed to survive at WR.

Cory Rodgers -- #104 pick to Green Bay -- Too many WR in Green Bay and a 4.75 40-yd dash equals Arena League.

Jason Avant -- #109 pick to Philadelphia -- Good pick for the Eagles, but he'll be deep on the charts. He could surprise in the red zone.

Demetrius Williams -- #111 pick to Baltimore -- He'll get a chance as the #3 or #4 in Baltimore, but he needs to stay focused.

Will Blackmon -- #115 pick to Green Bay -- A converted cornerback, he's got a better chance at success than Rodgers.

Brandon Marshall -- #119 pick to Denver -- He won't get much playing time, but he could be a threat in the red zone. Think Clarence Moore.

Skyler Green -- #125 pick to Dallas -- Green is a great kick returner, and should be the #4 WR to start the season.

Domenik Hixon -- #130 pick to Denver -- Hixon might not make the team... yours or Denver's.

Marques Hagans -- #144 pick to St. Louis -- Hagans is yet another converted QB who ran a 4.64 40-yd dash. Not good.

Jeremy Bloom -- #147 pick to Philadelphia -- Great publicity, good story, bad idea.

Mike Haas -- #171 pick to New Orleans -- He had a great college career, but it ends there.

Jonathan Orr -- #172 pick to Tennessee -- Phenomenal athlete who won't get to play much.

Delanie Walker -- #175 pick to San Francisco -- Big receiver who has no speed.

Adam Jennings -- #184 pick to Atlanta -- Great value pick by Atlanta. Jennings is a burner who should be the Falcons #4 WR. A deep sleeper here.

Jeff Webb -- #190 pick to Kansas City -- Webb is a big WR who is buried in Kansas City. Might make an impact in 2007.

Ethan Kilmer -- #209 pick to Kansas City -- Great special teamer, bad fantasy guy.

Todd Watkins -- #218 pick to Arizona -- Good pick here; he should stick as a #5 WR and special teams player.

Bennie Brazell -- #231 pick to Cincinnati -- He's 6'3" 175 lbs... which means he'll get killed.

Devin Aromashodu -- #233 pick to Miami -- Good kick returner, nothing else.

Ben Obomanu -- #249 pick to Seattle -- Project player who could help Seattle in 2007.

David Anderson -- #251 pick to Houston -- Pass.

Kevin McMahan -- #255 pick to Oakland -- Mr. Irrelevent is a burner who might stick somewhere.

NFL draft analysis -- RB

The Houston Texans shocked the world by drafting DE Mario Williams and passing on Reggie Bush. Other than that, there weren't many surprises, as several teams filled holes and others strengthened an already good backfield. Let's look at the running rookies:

Reggie Bush -- #2 pick to New Orleans -- The Saints didn't really need a RB, but the hype and talent that Bush brings was too much to pass up for a city in need of an adrenaline shot. Bush has been called the best college running back in the last 15 years, but it will be interesting to see what the Saints do with Deuce McAllister. Reggie might find himself used more as a slot receiver his rookie year. Either way, he's the prize of this draft, and will become a top fantasy RB in time.

Laurence Maroney -- #21 pick to New England -- This is a great pick for the Patriots, who feature aging back Corey Dillon, and a trio of backups who aren't impressive. Maroney will have time to learn the system and will only be pushed into action if Dillon gets injured. He should take over the starting job in 2007 and become a top-15 fantasy back immediately. Draft him this year and hold on for the future.

DeAngelo Williams -- #27 pick to Carolina -- I suppose I'm confused; the Panthers resigned DeShaun Foster to a two year contract and spent a high pick last season on Eric Shelton. They had other holes that needed filling, but they chose to take a tailback. It remains to be seen what their plans are for Williams, but he'd need Foster out of the way to make an impact in 2006. He should be a good NFL back, but not a fantasy stud anytime soon.

Joseph Addai -- #30 pick to Indianapolis -- I liked Addai in college. I liked him more after the combine. I love him as a Colt. Addai will have a chance to start right now, with only Dominic Rhodes in his way. He's a nice fit for their system, and he will allow Peyton Manning to stretch the defense by running inside if necessary. Addai will be a fantasy stud in the second half of 2006, if not sooner. He won't be the first rookie drafted in your league, but he should be.

LenDale White -- #45 pick to Tennessee -- The Titans took chances with both of their first two picks, selecting Vince Young in the first round and White in the second. He didn't perform at the combine due to a hamstring injury, which probably cost him a chance at the first round. White is a bruising back who has yet to prove he can play every down. He'll compete with Chris Brown for the job, but look for Brown to win and White to get some goal line and short yardage carries in 2006.

Maurice Drew -- #60 pick to Jacksonville -- Drew joins a crowded backfield with the Jaguars, but should contribute as a third down back this season. He's small and injury prone, meaning he'll fit well in Jacksonville. He doesn't figure to have a starting role soon, but he could be the backup for many years. Drew was drafted higher than I expected, and he shouldn't be one of your top three fantasy backs this year.

Brian Calhoun -- #74 pick to Detroit -- This could turn out to be a good value pick for the Lions. Calhoun will probably emerge as the backup to Kevin Jones, but in an offense featuring three first round picks at receiver and two quarterbacks with good arms, Calhoun could be a major contributor if Jones is injured or ineffective. That being said, don't draft him too high, as he is the #2 man behind a young running back that the Lions have a lot invested in.

Jerious Norwood -- #79 pick to Atlanta -- This is a wasted pick for the Falcons. Norwood doesn't do anything especially well, and Atlanta has Warrick Dunn giving them great numbers every season. I know that Dunn has passed 30 years old, but T.J. Duckett should become the full time back. I'd be surprised if Norwood has any impact at all this year, and may be the RB from this draft that will be out of the league after three years without doing anything.

Others who were drafted:

Leon Washington -- #117 pick to the New York Jets -- Washington might find a place on special teams, but he won't have any fantasy impact in 2006.

P.J. Daniels -- #132 pick to Baltimore -- I like this pick because Jamal Lewis is always a question mark. Stash Daniels on your bench in deep leagues and hope he gets a chance.

Jerome Harrison -- #145 pick to Cleveland -- The Browns don't have a stud back, so anyone could step up to produce. With Droughns and Suggs in front of him, anything could happen.

Wali Lundy -- #170 pick to Houston -- Lundy had a nice college career, but he won't do much as a pro. Houston might keep him as their third RB.

Cedric Humes -- #240 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers might convert Humes into a backup fullback and keep him on the team. You don't need to get to know him.

Quinton Ganther -- #246 pick to Tennessee -- If he makes the team, it will be as a special teams player, which doesn't do anything for you.

NFL draft analysis -- QB

There were many good QB prospects in this draft, but many people didn't look beyond the big three of Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler. Some guys went amazingly high, and several fell farther than expected. Let's look at the top quarterbacks from the draft.

Vince Young -- #3 pick to Tennessee -- While rumors swirl about the trade of Steve McNair, Young potentially steps into a starting role. The Titans have a good offensive line, and Young will have every opportunity to succeed. If Tennessee builds the offense around him, he has the potential to become a faster Donovan McNabb. If McNair stays in Tennessee, Young won't be a factor until 2007. If not, draft him as your backup until he has a few weeks under his belt.

Matt Leinart -- #10 pick to Arizona -- Leinart steps into the best situation out of the big three, as Kurt Warner hasn't played a full season since 2001. Arizona features the best young receiver tandem in the NFL with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Once he gets a chance, he'll put up good numbers. That might include some interceptions, but the yards will be there. I've said from the start that Leinart was the best QB in this draft, and now I agree from a fantasy standpoint as well.

Jay Cutler -- #11 pick to Denver -- The Broncos traded up to grab Cutler, then sent their second round pick to Green Bay for Javon Walker. This bodes well for Cutler, who will probably step into the starting role in 2007. He'll have a superstar receiver in Walker, and if Tatum Bell is able to play to his potential, Cutler will be able to use him to stretch the field. Denver liked him better than Leinart and Young, and doubting the Broncos hasn't been successful in the past. Roll the dice in keeper leagues and look to 2007.

Kellen Clemens -- #49 pick to the New York Jets -- The Jets passed on Leinart and Cutler, and then reached for Clemens in the second round. With his ankle injuries at Oregon, he probably would have fallen into the third round. That being said, he's an extremely intelligent quarterback who can make throws from any position. He's mentally ready to play in the NFL, and might be called to duty earlier than anticipated if Chad Pennington finds his usual seat in the ambulance. Clemens is a good pick for late in your keeper league draft because he'll be the #2 guy behind an injury prone starter.

Tarvaris Jackson -- #64 pick to Minnesota -- I'm surprised that the Vikings didn't trade up to select one of the big three quarterbacks. Jackson is a good project who will learn for a year behind Brad Johnson and then step in as the starter. He's a big, fast player and has been called a miniature Daunte Culpepper. That's not a bad thing, but he has to improve his technique and focus to be an impact in the NFL. He won't help your team in 2006, but could be a starter the following season.

Charlie Whitehurst -- #81 pick to San Diego -- Whitehurst was the sixth QB off the board, but he has a chance to become an instant contributor. The Chargers lost Drew Brees to New Orleans, but they've invested a lot in former first rounder Phillip Rivers. Whitehurst is a large, somewhat immobile quarterback who draws comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger with his size and ability. He isn't great on the run, and his technique leaves something to be desired, but with LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates on his side, he would perform well if given the chance. Keep your eye on him in case Rivers doesn't cut it in 2006.

Brodie Croyle -- #85 pick to Kansas City -- If he would have stayed healthy during his college career, he would have been on the same level as Jay Cutler. Both are smart quarterbacks who know how to manage a field. Both have slight inadequacies when it comes to being a complete player, and both know how to lead. The difference is that Croyle has blown the ACL in both knees and suffered other injuries to ankles and shoulders. If he can stay on the field, he has a chance to take over for Trent Green in 2007 and produce nicely. If not, he's worthless.

Others who were drafted:

Ingle Martin -- #148 pick to Green Bay -- He has great ability and tools, and should be the #2 QB in 2007. He had a great career at Furman, which nobody has ever heard of.

Omar Jacobs -- #164 pick to Pittsburgh -- The Steelers might have found the long-term backup to Roethlisberger. Jacobs has terrible technique, but is smart enough to get around it.

Reggie McNeal -- #193 pick to Cincinnati -- McNeal is a phenomenal athlete who might end up as a corner or receiver in the NFL. He has blazing speed, and will probably turn out to be the best sixth round pick in the draft.

Bruce Gradkowski -- #194 pick to Tampa Bay -- I'm surprised he was drafted, but he could turn out to be a good NFL backup, which means he's worthless to you.

D.J. Shockley -- #223 pick to Atlanta -- Now the Falcons have another quarterback who can't play the position. He'd be better off to switch to receiver, but it won't matter in Atlanta.

NFL draft analysis -- general

As I watched my mock draft go up in flames, I decided to focus my post-draft analysis on the fantasy stock of the players. There's no need to point out that two of my first-round selections (OT Eric Winston and CB Ashton Youboty) lasted until the third round, or that I didn't accurately predict where any of the big three QB would land. We'll take a look on what impact the draftees will have in 2006 and beyond.

When I heard on Saturday night that Houston had agreed to terms with DE Mario Williams, I couldn't believe it. The Texans could have picked up quite a few picks in exchange for that top selection, but they settled for Williams... not that he isn't a freak, but did Houston really want him that much more than D'Brickashaw Ferguson? Wouldn't the Jets have given their #4 pick, plus quite a bit more to get Reggie Bush? Does anyone in Houston have a clue?

There were winners and losers at the draft, but we'll strictly focus on the fantasy world, primarily on the offensive side of the ball. Some leagues don't have defenses, and we'll cover the defensive players in later articles.