most overrated -- WR

The big names like Moss, Owens and Harrison have been replaced by Smith, Johnson and Fitzgerald. The veterans are beginning to move aside to the youth movement. There seems to be a growing gap between the elite WR and the middle of the pack. The problem is that nobody knows which WR will emerge as a star year to year. Last year, it was Steve Smith, who came off a major injury to lead many owners to titles. Who will it be in 2006? Not these guys...

1. Marvin Harrison -- Indianapolis Colts -- You're probably wondering how I can include a guy who has produced 1100+ yards and 10+ TD for the last seven seasons. My logic is simple. Harrison's receptions have declined for three straight seasons, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he didn't lead the team in catches. Reggie Wayne is younger and bigger, and will become Peyton Manning's favorite target this year. Harrison has been among the top-6 WR selected for a long time -- this is the year to break that trend.

2. Santana Moss -- Washington Redskins -- The huge numbers that Moss put up in 2005 (84-1483-9) were a direct result of Mark Brunell's fantastic season. Since Brunell isn't likely to go off again, everyone suffers. Keep in mind that Moss was coming of a season of 45-838-5 with the Jets. I have a hard time trusting Moss to repeat last season, but he could fall somewhere in between '04 and '05. If that's worth a top-10 pick to you, go crazy... but it isn't to me.

3. Laveranues Coles -- New York Jets -- He's following the Derrick Mason career path perfectly. Coles has caught 334 passes over the last four seasons, but has only scored 17 times. His big play ability has vanished, and the quarterback situation in Jetland doesn't bode well for receivers. He's durable and works hard, but I've yet to see a league reward those two traits. Someone will draft him too high because they figure he has to put up a 10+ TD season soon. They are wrong.

4. David Givens -- Tennessee Titans -- Givens has been a solid performer for the last two seasons, but when the Titans gave him a five-year contract, the fantasy world anointed him as a player to watch. Don't watch too closely. Givens doesn't do anything great, and his fantasy numbers won't approach elite status as long as he's being pushed by Brandon Jones and Tyrone Calico, both of whom are younger and bigger. This won't be the year to stock up on Titans.

5. Anyone from Detroit -- Roy Williams is the only one who has had success in the past, as he's caught 16 TD in his first two years in the league... but he's a jerk, and can't stay healthy for an entire season. Neither can Charles Rogers, who has played 15 games in three seasons. Mike Williams is interesting, but he didn't look good as a rookie and he'll be fighting for playing time. You can forget about Corey Bradford or Mike Furrey.

most overrated -- RB

There aren't many RB that didn't have their situation altered in some way during the offseason. Several top backs lost key members of their offense or changed teams, and others had off-field problems. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player because of his name or recent history. Do the homework and find the bargain buys. These guys are not the bargain buys.

1. Tiki Barber -- New York Giants -- He was one of my bust picks last year, and he produced one of the best yardage seasons in NFL history. That means he'll automatically be ranked too high. He's 31 now, and his workload has increased each of the last three seasons, including 411 touches last year. That's too many for an older back, and this is the year he starts to break down. Many publications have him as the #4 or #5 overall player... I think you can do better by trading down for more value.

2. Corey Dillon -- New England Patriots -- Dillon turned in a good season last year when he was on the field, scoring 12 TD in 12 games. His overall fantasy numbers looked good, but they masked the truth. He averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and his effectiveness in short yardage situations declined. The Pats drafted Laurence Maroney to take his place, and that might happen this year. Dillon will still be the goal line back, but if you are looking for a good starter, look somewhere else. If you do pick Dillon, make sure to back him up with Maroney.

3. Ron Dayne -- Denver Broncos -- Mike Shanahan says that Dayne is his #1 guy right now. Don't believe that will last long. Dayne hasn't made a habit of being very good, and his 3.7 yards per carry career average won't cut it in Denver. With Tatum Bell waiting to erupt as a superstar, I can't see how Shanahan will give more than 5-10 carries per game to Dayne. That being said, it is Denver, and anything can happen...

4. T.J. Duckett -- Atlanta Falcons -- With any luck, the Falcons will trade Duckett to someone who can give him more carries. He has a terrible yards per carry average, and he's not good catching passes out of the backfield. He does have 31 career TD in 54 games, but someone always looks at his freakish body and touchdown totals and picks him too high. Usually I'm that person, but not this year. With draft pick Jerious Norwood on board, and Warrick Dunn signed to an extension, Duckett's role appears to be diminishing. Draft him late and hope he gets dealt.

5. Willis McGahee -- Buffalo Bills -- It's hard to put him here, seeing that he's rushed for almost 2400 yards in his first two seasons. I just don't like what Buffalo is doing on the offensive side of the ball. They had a chance to get a better WR to complement Lee Evans, and ended up with Peerless Price. Unless this is 2002 all over again, the Price thing won't be too successful. With problems at QB and an average offensive line, McGahee's numbers could plateau at about 1400-1500 total yards and 6-8 TD. That's not too bad, but he's not a top-10 choice with those numbers. If he's your RB1, make sure your #2 is strong.

most overrated -- QB

I'm leaving Mike Vick off this list for one reason: he's NOT overrated. Vick finished in the top-8 in many leagues. The knock is that he's a bad passer, which is true. He'll frustrate you to death with his 11-27 119yds 0TD 2INT games... but his legs make him a true weapon. He finished with almost 600 yards rushing and six TD; only David Carr surpassed 300 yards rushing, and Ben Roethlisberger ranked second in TD with three. Vick is one of the few players who can win a week for you by himself, which makes him special. If you can put up with the bad weeks, the good ones will be that much better.

These guys are the most overrated fantasy QB this year:

1. Peyton Manning -- Indianapolis Colts -- This probably looks crazy, but he's overrated. Several major publications last season had him as one of the top-5 overall picks, and he didn't even turn out to be the #1 QB. With the loss of Edgerrin James, defenses can focus more on the passing game. He will be the first QB drafted in almost every league, but there are much better value options. Don't get me wrong -- he's still Peyton Manning and he'll probably finish with 4000+ yards and 30+ TD, but if you draft him before a RB in the first round, you are nuts.

2. Donovan McNabb -- Philadelphia Eagles -- He was still a very good QB before Terrell Owens, but many will still rank him in the top-5 and he doesn't deserve it. He has no proven receivers and with injuries mounting, his running game will be diminished. McNabb will have to prove that the events of 2005 are in the past and that he can succeed again without a true #1 WR. I'm not expecting big things this year, and you shouldn't draft him in the top-6 QB.

3. Mark Brunell -- Washington Redskins -- Brunell started the season on fire, throwing 12 TD in his first five starts, but in his last seven games, he never made it to 200 yards. People will look at his total numbers (3050 yards, 23 TD) and think that he's a viable fantasy starter, but he isn't. He's 35 years old, has a history of injuries and several average receivers. If he stays healthy, he'll frustrate you by falling apart late in the season again. Hope that he gets hurt to save you the heartache... or just don't draft him.

4. Jon Kitna -- Detroit Lions -- I think that Josh McCown is a better QB than Kitna, but the Lions will go with the veteran to start the season. Experts are giddy about the Detroit offense with a trio of first round receivers, and budding star RB Kevin Jones. This should make Kitna a good fit, right? Wrong. He hasn't played much since 2003, and he'll be 34 this year. Kitna was never a superstar, and his career numbers aren't impressive at all. With McCown knocking on the door, Kitna's stay at the top could be short. Draft him only as a QB2 and watch the situation.

5. Chad Pennington -- New York Jets -- Why does everyone believe that Pennington will be good again, even if he's healthy? The Jets feature a 71-year-old RB (Curtis Martin) and two average receivers in Laveraneus Coles and Justin McCareins. Plus, they traded for Patrick Ramsey and drafted Kellen Clemens in the second round this year. Even if he can stay on the field, you won't get a reliable fantasy starter. If you must draft him, make it late and be sure that your starter isn't injury prone.

sleeper picks -- WR

With receivers like Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt still near the top of the rankings, fantasy owners aren't looking as much to the young studs to fill their roster spots. Rookie receivers are almost always useless, and it's a well-proven theory that a WR doesn't blossom until their third year. These guys will blossom this year, whether it's their third or not...

1. Reggie Wayne -- Indianapolis Colts -- Many people don't know that Wayne actually led the Colts in receptions last year with 83. Marvin Harrison is 34 and getting slower by the year, so this is the season that Wayne takes over as the true #1 in Indy. He will at least return to 2004's numbers of 77-1210-12 and might make it to 90-100 catches this season, as the Colts will throw more with the absence of Edgerrin James. Make it a point to draft Wayne about 15 WR in, and you'll love his production.

2. Andre Johnson -- Houston Texans -- Johnson was awful for most of last season, battling leg injuries and watching QB David Carr get mauled behind a terrible offensive line. The scheme gets an upgrade, and the line is improved, so Johnson should return to being the budding fantasy stud he was in 2004, when he put up 79 catches and more than 1100 yards. Eric Moulds will prove to be a nice decoy, so grab Johnson and hope that Carr has enough time to throw the ball.

3. Nate Burleson -- Seattle Seahawks -- Burleson was another guy with huge expectations put on him for 2005, and he failed miserably. He was never the same after an early season knee injury, but the only time he had more than 50 yards in a game was week 17. Seattle will make him their #2 receiver next to an injury-prone Darrell Jackson. If his knee is healthy and he learns the offense, Burleson could return to star status with 70-1000-8. He'll be a forgotten man on draft day, but don't make that mistake.

4. Ernest Wilford/Matt Jones -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- With Jimmy Smith gone, Wilford and Jones will fight for the eye of Byron Leftwich. Wilford is the better receiver, Jones the better athlete. Wilford should prove early that he'll make the big catches and can get tough first downs, but Jones is bigger and faster. One of them should end up at around 75-1100-8, so watch to see who emerges as the #1 going into the season. The other isn't a bad pick either...

5. Mark Clayton -- Baltimore Ravens -- I know he's only in his second season, but he has a ton of talent and with Steve McNair throwing the ball, he could explode into a superstar this year. He has great speed and hands, and needs opportunities opposite Derrick Mason to maximize his talent. If Jamal Lewis can get back on track, Clayton's deep routes could materialize into many home runs. Don't let him slip too far, but he's not ready to be a #1 WR yet... maybe in 2007.