Wednesday, May 17, 2006

2006 keeper league rankings -- RB

Here are the 2006 keeper league RB rankings as of the middle of May. The NFL draft wasn't what anyone expected in the running back category, and a lot of big name college backs entered into interesting situations. 2006 should be an interesting year in the world of fantasy backs. The number after the player's name indicates his age for a majority of the 2006 season.

RB
1. Larry Johnson -- 27 -- he's got less miles on his legs than LT or Alexander, and his numbers from last season are ridiculous
2. Shaun Alexander -- 29 -- the loss of Steve Hutchinson is bigger than the addition of Nate Burleson, but Shaun will still get his 15+ TD
3. LaDainian Tomlinson -- 27 -- the Chargers are going with an unproven QB, but he's still the man and should have at least two more seasons of elite stats
4. Clinton Portis -- 25 -- his entire seasons rests on the left arm of Mark Brunell... without him, Portis will see nine guys in the box all year
5. Edgerrin James -- 28 -- the Cardinals look to be the league's best offense on paper... if Edge can stay on the field, he'll be a stud
6. Steven Jackson -- 23 -- the young stud will hopefully play an entire season with a healthy Marc Bulger; without him, Jackson was useless
7. Cadillac Williams -- 24 -- no competition for his job and a coach who loves to pound the ball... sounds good to me
8. Ronnie Brown -- 24 -- Ricky's gone, Daunte's in... once Culpepper is healthy, Brown's numbers will explode
9. Rudi Johnson -- 27 -- Cinci's offense has a great future with Carson, Chad and Rudi... the new "CCR" should be rollin' for several years
10. Lamont Jordan -- 27 -- the addition of Aaron Brooks doesn't hurt him, but his reception total will decline and he could see less red zone time
11. Willis McGahee -- 25 -- once the Buffalo offense gels under J.P. Losman (or Kelly Holcomb) McGahee will offer a nice return
12. Reggie Bush -- 21 -- he might not be the savior in 2006, but this is a keeper league ranking board, so bid heavily and hope that Deuce disappears next year
13. Julius Jones -- 25 -- still only 25, Jones should benefit from the TO signing and work more in the middle of the field
14. Domanick Davis -- 26 -- Davis owners were delighted to see the Texans pass Reggie Bush in the draft... Davis needs to stay on the field and score more
15. Tiki Barber -- 31 -- are you going to bet against him again in 2006? i am, but i'm not putting down as much money this time
16. Chris Brown -- 25 -- he's still young, but he'll have LenDale White pushing him to stay on the field and produce
17. Kevin Jones -- 24 -- if Kitna or McCown can establish a passing game, Jones will be the surprise player of 2006
18. Willie Parker -- 25 -- doesn't score enough, but that might chance with the retirement of Jerome Bettis and the wishes of Bill Cowher to see Ben Roethlisberger stay in the pocket more
19. Brian Westbrook -- 27 -- the Eagles might use him more as a wideout and give carries to Ryan Moats
20. Cedric Benson -- 23 -- he should be the starter in Chicago, but he didn't show anything last year to make me believe he'll be as good as Thomas Jones the last two seasons
21. Laurence Maroney -- 21 -- will play some in 2006, but should be the full time starter in '07 and make the Patriots even more dangerous
22. Jamal Lewis -- 27 -- stayed in Baltimore, which isn't a great thing, but with Chester Taylor in Minnesota, he should rebound with a solid season
23. Tatum Bell -- 25 -- who knows what Denver will do, but Bell is the most talented of their backs; he just needs to beat Ron Dayne for the job
24. Chester Taylor -- 27 -- has the starting job in Minnesota, but with a creaky Brad Johnson throwing to nobody proven, Taylor won't have too much fun this year
25. DeShaun Foster -- 26 -- this is probably too high for Foster; with DeAngelo Williams waiting in the wings, Foster's time as a starter could be nearing the end
26. DeAngelo Williams -- 23 -- if Foster starts fumbling or gets injured, Williams will produce right away... the only reason he isn't 10 spots higher is because of the plethora of backs in Carolina
27. Reuben Droughns -- 28 -- he had more than 1600 total yards last year, but only two touchdowns... look for more of the same if he holds the job
28. Warrick Dunn -- 31 -- just refuses to give the job to T.J. Duckett, so he should be good for another 1000 yard season, but not much more
29. Deuce McAllister -- 27 -- now with Reggie on board, it's anyone's guess what the Saints will do this year; in 2007, it's Bush, and Deuce will have to find a new team
30. T.J. Duckett -- 25 -- has 27 touchdowns in the last three seasons, but still no starting job; is this the year?
31. Frank Gore -- 23 -- the 49ers could have a good thing going with Alex Smith, Vernon Davis and Gore... if he stays on the field
32. Ahman Green -- 29 -- he might just explode and have a huge 2006, but his future holds nothing beyond that
33. Corey Dillon -- 32 -- see Ahman Green
34. Thomas Jones -- 28 -- the Bears have a lot invested in Benson, but if he fails, Jones will be a productive starter
35. Fred Taylor -- 30 -- he says he's healthy, the team says he's healthy, the media says he's healthy... I say find someone else
36. Joseph Addai -- 23 -- he just doesn't look like the long term answer for the Colts; will probably start the season behind Dominic Rhodes
37. Chris Perry -- 24 -- great third down back just looking for a chance; he'll produce if Rudi gets hurt or starts the season ineffective
38. Ron Dayne -- 28 -- Shanahan has him listed as the starter right now... I'm not going to doubt it, but I'm also not going to draft Dayne
39. LenDale White -- 21 -- he's a giant man with an injury-prone Chris Brown in front of him... if he gets in the game, you'll see numbers like Duckett
40. Mewelde Moore -- 24 -- I still think he's better than Chester Taylor, but the Vikes invested in Taylor and so Moore will wait for a chance
41. Lee Suggs -- 26 -- if healthy, he's Cleveland's best running back, and the Browns should figure that out by midseason
42. Cedric Houston -- 24 -- Houston will be the most productive back on the Jets this year... so grab him if that excites you
43. Dominic Rhodes -- 27 -- probably just holding the spot until Addai is ready, but he does have a 1000 yard season under his belt
44. Greg Jones -- 25 -- I don't know why I have him this high, but he impressed me when he was the starter last year, and I think he could benefit from 15+ carries per game
45. Priest Holmes -- 33 -- Holmes can see the sunset, but he might have a few touchdowns left in him if Larry Johnson goes down
46. Marion Barber -- 23 -- Parcells likes him, although Parcells also likes winning, and that's why he'll stick with Julius Jones
47. Michael Turner -- 24 -- if you have LT, draft Turner, because he's one of the top-10 backups in the league
48. Ryan Moats -- 23 -- might see more carries if Westbrook is injured again or used as a receiver
49. Brian Calhoun -- 22 -- will serve as the primary backup to Kevin Jones, and could produce as a third-down back
50. Curtis Martin -- 33 -- I suppose I have to rank him here because he is still the starter, but he shouldn't last too long this season
51. Mike Anderson -- 33 -- the rookies should be ranked before the old guys on this table, but Anderson somehow proves me wrong every year
52. Kevan Barlow -- 27 -- he still has some juice left, so if he gets out of San Francisco, some team would have a good backup
53. J.J. Arrington -- 23 -- the Cards spent a high first round pick on him last year, but with Edgerrin James in town, Arrington will have a nice seat
54. Michael Pittman -- 31 -- still the backup to Cadillac, but he'll be 31 and hasn't been known to keep his head straight
55. Brandon Jacobs -- 24 -- less than 40 carries last year, but 7 touchdowns... this 265lb back could see more time with Tiki Barber getting no younger
56. Ladell Betts -- 27 -- good spot duty as the #2 to Clinton Portis... Betts will never be a star, but a good option if Portis is down
57. Anthony Thomas -- 27 -- found a job in Buffalo, and with McGahee coming off a disappointing season, Thomas could see the field
58. Michael Bennett -- 28 -- he's #3 in New Orleans right now, but rumors have him leaving to become the backup to Domanick Davis
59. Justin Fargas -- 26 -- Fargas can fly, but he has no job, and Lamont Jordan isn't going anywhere
60. Samkon Gado -- 23 -- Ahman Green is getting old and creaky, and Gado impressed the coaches enough to earn another year
61. Adrian Peterson -- 27 -- with a healthy Cedric Benson, AP isn't likely to see many carries, but if Thomas Jones is traded, he's a valuable backup
62. Alvin Pearman -- 24 -- could sneak ahead of Greg Jones on the depth chart behind Fred Taylor
63. Cedric Cobbs -- 25 -- you never know who Shanahan will throw in there... Cobbs could have 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns this year, or the Broncos could cut him
64. Verron Haynes -- 27 -- should beat Duce Staley for the #2 job in Pittsburgh, which means he'll see some action
65. Maurice Morris -- 26 -- he's fast and he returns kicks, but that's about all
66. Arlen Harris -- 26 -- will emerge as the #2 guy in St. Louis, which could get him a few token carries and some third down catches
67. Leon Washington -- 24 -- rookie who will be #3 with the Jets, until Curtis Martin retires to spend time with his great-grandkids
68. P.J. Daniels -- 23 -- Jamal Lewis is a question mark and Mike Anderson is old, so Daniels might see the field often in 2006
69. Ciatrick Fason -- 23 -- decent sized back in a muddy picture in Minnesota; he actually led the team in rushing TD with 4 in only 32 carries
70. Maurice Drew -- 21 -- you never know... the four guys on the depth chart in front of him might all get in a car together on a snowy day...

2006 keeper league rankings -- QB

Here are the 2006 keeper league QB rankings as of the middle of May. Now that the NFL draft is over, the rookies will be included in the rankings. The number after the player's name indicated his age for a majority of the 2006 season. Stay tuned for updates as the offseason continues...

QB
1. Peyton Manning -- 30 -- the Colts will try to win with rookie RB Joseph Addai and career backup Dominic Rhodes, so Manning might pass more, which usually isn't good
2. Tom Brady -- 29 -- adding RB Laurence Maroney and WR Chad Jackson in the draft just makes Brady more dangerous
3. Eli Manning -- 25 -- still looks like the #3 QB, but far from being #2
4. Carson Palmer -- 26 -- I still don't know where to rank him, but this is the year to steal him low while he's recovering from a shredded knee
5. Matt Hasselback -- 31 -- Alexander signed a hefty deal, and the addition of Nate Burleson is nice, but the line lost Steve Hutchinson and the Seahawks receivers still can't hold the ball
6. Michael Vick -- 26 -- his legs are your only chance, but they are nice legs...
7. Donovan McNabb -- 29 -- Owens is gone, and the Eagles didn't address WR until round 4... falling out of the top-5 quickly
8. Ben Roethlisberger -- 24 -- probably too high for him, but he's efficient and the Steelers added Santonio Holmes to the attack
9. Daunte Culpepper -- 29 -- I accurately predicted in the last rankings that he'd land in Miami, but that still doesn't make him a top-5 QB
10. Marc Bulger -- 29 -- if he stays healthy, he'll be in the top-6... if not, you'll hate yourself
11. Jake Delhomme -- 31 -- Panthers added a backfield weapon in DeAngelo Williams, but Steve Smith remains the only good receiver on the team
12. Kurt Warner -- 35 -- with Edgerrin James on board, the Cards look like the best offense in football
13. Byron Leftwich -- 26 -- he has a huge red zone target in Marcedes Lewis; now he needs a healthy Fred Taylor
14. Drew Brees -- 27 -- with a Saints offense including Reggie Bush, Brees could be a top-10 QB
15. Jake Plummer -- 31 -- has Jay Cutler to teach, and Javon Walker to throw to... if he has a consistent running game, his passing numbers could explode
16. Drew Bledsoe -- 34 -- Terrell Owens makes Bledsoe a top-16 QB automatically, but his long term outlook isn't great
17. David Carr -- 27 -- unless Mario Williams can play tight end, Carr's position didn't improve after the draft
18. Trent Green -- 36 -- Brodie Croyle won't challenge Green in 2006, but it's a guessing game after that
19. Brett Favre -- 37 -- he lost Javon Walker to the Broncos, but he'll still put up good numbers with Driver and Ferguson
20. J.P. Losman -- 25 -- lost Moulds to the Texans, and the Bills didn't add any offensive players in the draft... might lose job to Kelly Holcomb
21. Aaron Brooks -- 30 -- has Moss and Jordan on his side... could be the sleeper of 2006
22. Chad Pennington -- 30 -- The Jets blew it by passing on a QB in the first round... neither second rounder Kellen Clemens nor Patrick Ramsey will challenge this year
23. Jon Kitna -- 34 -- if he can get the Lions talented offense jumpstarted, he'll put up nice numbers
24. Philip Rivers -- 24 -- he can't help but to do well with Gates, LT and the offensive line in San Diego
25. Matt Leinart -- 23 -- Warner can't stay healthy, and the Cardinals feature the best WR corps in the game
26. Rex Grossman -- 26 -- could put up decent numbers, or could miss the season with another injury
27. Charlie Frye -- 25 -- Frye was named the starter, and he could be a nice surprise
28. Chris Simms -- 26 -- if he can stay in the game and use his weapons, he'll have a nice season
29. Mark Brunell -- 36 -- Father Time is still on the porch, but with Ramsey gone, his job is safe... for now
30. Alex Smith -- 22 -- rookie TE Vernon Davis will become his best friend, but still needs more help
31. Steve McNair -- 33 -- rumored to be on his way to the Ravens; he won't be a star there, and might not stay healthy enough to matter
32. Brad Johnson -- 38 -- the Vikings need a lot of help, and Johnson isn't the answer
33. Billy Volek -- 30 -- If McNair is shipped out, he becomes either a good starter, or a valuable reserve behind Vince Young
34. Vince Young -- 23 -- he will probably learn behind Volek, but could be a stud in 2007
35. Josh McCown -- 27 -- will probably start the season behind Kitna, but when he gets a chance, he'll put up huge numbers
36. David Garrard -- 28 -- agile QB needs a starting job, but won't find it in Jacksonville
37. Kyle Boller -- 25 -- if McNair shows up in Baltimore, Boller will be in the backseat
38. Brian Griese -- 31 -- has offensive weapons in Chicago, now he's waiting for Rex Grossman's annual injury
39. Jay Cutler -- 23 -- needs a Plummer injury to play this season, but he has the weapons to be a star in 2007
40. Patrick Ramsey -- 27 -- once promising, now hoping for another Pennington injury
41. Kelly Holcomb -- 33 -- always seems to produce when called on, no matter what team he's with
42. Joey Harrington -- 28 -- he was bad in Detroit; what makes me think Miami will help him?
43. Jeff Garcia -- 36 -- still can produce, but the offense in Philadelphia is getting weaker, and so is Garcia
44. Gus Frerotte -- 35 -- good news: set career high in TD passes in 2005 -- bad news: his career high is 18
45. Brodie Croyle -- 23 -- should emerge as #2 to Trent Green, who isn't getting younger
46. Aaron Rodgers -- 22 -- goes back to being the backup to a QB who hasn't missed a game since 1954
47. Tony Romo -- 26 -- a Bledsoe injury makes Romo a sleeper; throwing to Owens, Glenn and Witten makes anyone a sleeper
48. Anthony Wright -- 30 -- might begin the season starting if Carson Palmer isn't ready
49. Matt Schaub -- 25 -- performed very well in Vick's absence last year
50. Jim Sorgi -- 25 -- best week 17 quarterback every year

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Harrington traded to Dolphins

The Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins completed a trade Friday that sent QB Joey Harrington to Miami in exchange for a conditional draft pick in 2007. If Harrington reaches undisclosed performance and playing time levels, the pick would be in the fifth round. If not, Detroit receives a sixth rounder.

Harrington will serve as the primary backup to new Dolphins QB Daunte Culpepper, who is coming off major knee surgery and might not be ready to start the season. Harrington was the third player drafted in 2002 by Detroit, but never has materialized into the franchise quarterback the Lions thought they were getting. His career completion percentage is 54.7%, and he has never thrown more than 19 touchdowns in a season.

Harrington actually isn't a bad fantasy option as your #2 quarterback, if Culpepper isn't ready in September. Chris Chambers has proven to be an elite receiver, and Ronnie Brown gives the Dolphins a great running attack, although Harrington had all of the pieces in place in Detroit, and couldn't perform. If Culpepper starts on opening day, the only reason to have Harrington on your team is if you own Culpepper. Otherwise, stay away.

Jimmy Smith retires

Jimmy Smith, the Jaguars career leading receiver in almost every category, announced his retirement last week after 11 seasons in Jacksonville. Smith was always one of the most underrated receivers in the league. Although he never posted large touchdown numbers, Smith accrued more than 1000 yards receiving nine times and currently sits seventh on the NFL career list for receptions, and 11th for yards. His best statistical season came in 1999, when he finished with 116 catches for 1636 yards, the eighth highest single season total in each category.

Smith's retirement puts Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams into a competition for the #1 job. The early edge would seem to go to Wilford, who led the team with seven touchdowns in 2005. Jones and Williams are both young players looking for breakout seasons, and this might give them that opportunity. Look for Jones to be starting opposite Wilford, with Williams getting plenty of touches. Wilford could get to 70-1100-8, while Jones and Williams could end up with 50 catches each.