sleeper picks -- RB

Shaun Alexander lost his best lineman. LaDainian Tomlinson lost his quarterback. Larry Johnson hasn't played a full season. Tiki Barber is 31 years old. Moral of the story? The top RB this year all have tiny little concerns. These sleeper RB make good value picks in case you can't get your hands on the big dogs.

1. Domanick Davis -- Houston Texans -- Ok... I know he's not really a sleeper, but when the Texans passed on Reggie Bush, Davis became a great fantasy option again. He won't be among the first eight RB drafted, but his numbers are excellent when he's on the field. He averaged more than 119 total yards per game in his 11 starts last season and scored 14 TD in 2004. His durability issues are a concern, but if he can keep his health for 16 games, he should be a top-10 RB.

2. Chester Taylor -- Minnesota Vikings -- He could be 2006's version of Lamont Jordan. He can run, catch and block, and the Vikes have given him the starting job. He was productive as the reserve to Jamal Lewis over the last few seasons, and caught 91 passes in the last three seasons as a backup. If the Vikings offense can come together, Taylor could be a huge surprise. At worst, he'll get 15-18 touches per game and finish in the top-25 fantasy RB. The best case scenario is 1600 total yards and 10 TD. You should still be able to get him about 18-22 RB into the draft, at which point he'll be a huge asset to your team.

3. Tatum Bell -- Denver Broncos -- Everyone seemed to think 2005 was Bell's year to become the next stud in Denver. He spelled Mike Anderson well and averaged 5.3 yards per carry on his 173 attempts, but he never got a chance to take over the job. He'll battle Ron Dayne this year, but 2006 will be a different story, as Bell will become the starter early. In 248 career carries, he has 1317 yards and 11 TD. That should be close to his final numbers for this year. His stock will never be lower, so grab him this year and enjoy.

4. Jamal Lewis -- Baltimore Ravens -- This is the major risk/reward pick of the list. Lewis was bad last year, as he failed to reach 1000 yards and only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. The Ravens made it a point to sign Lewis to a huge contract, and let Chester Taylor go to the Vikings to eliminate the competition. Lewis is still only 27 years old and has 55-year-old Mike Anderson as his backup, so he'll have a chance to rebound. Grab him about 20 RB into the draft and look for 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns as he becomes this year's biggest surprise.

5. Frank Gore -- San Francisco 49ers -- I like what the Niners are doing with the offense. Alex Smith won't be a great player for a few more seasons, but by drafting freak TE Vernon Davis in the first round, they are showing commitment to the offense. Gore should be the starter this year, and build on a very solid 2005 season, in which he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and ran for 255 yards in the last three weeks of the season. Gore is a great option as RB3, and should make his way into your starting lineup around midseason.

sleeper picks -- QB

These are my top-5 quarterbacks who will surprise owners with a solid season. Several rookies last year planted the seed for 2006, and with stars like Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb facing question marks, you might find better value by waiting and grabbing one of these guys.

1. Kurt Warner -- Arizona Cardinals -- Warner has only played in 22 games in the last three seasons, but if he can stay on the field in 2006, he'll have a fantastic chance to be a top-6 QB this year. With Edgerrin James in the backfield, the Cards finally have a running threat to complement stud receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's the biggest risk/reward pick at the position this year, but I'll take the chance about 12 QB into the draft.

2. David Carr -- Houston Texans -- Carr has frustrated ambitious owners who are looking for him to become the next version of Peyton Manning. He took a big step backwards last year, but with the addition of Eric Moulds and help coming to the offensive line, he should return to numbers similar to the 2004 season, when he threw for more than 3500 yards. He's a good player to draft as a backup and hope he blossoms into good trade bait. He's a good pick about 16-20 QB into the draft.

3. Charlie Frye -- Cleveland Browns -- If he wins the job outright, he could make some waves. His season will depend on the health of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. If they can play without too much pain or loss of ability, Frye will have two huge, excellent weapons. Joe Jurevicius is also big, and broke through with 10 TD last year. If the running game can be consistent, Frye is a good pick for 2006, and a great one for 2007.

4. Phillip Rivers -- San Diego Chargers -- Rivers will try to replace Drew Brees, who threw 51 TD in the last two seasons. He will start the season without competition, and he should have a good season, if only because he has LaDainian Tomlinson behind him and Antonio Gates to throw to. Rivers has only thrown 30 passes as a pro, but he should be ready to take charge of a very good offense. He's another good value pick as a QB2, and has a good chance to sneak into the top-15.

5. Chris Simms -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Simms didn't light up the world last year in 10 starts for the Bucs, but he will improve this season as the running game matures and his younger receivers get more reps. Cadillac Williams looked like a superstar last season, and he'll help give Simms openings to throw. He'll be a surprise if he can stay healthy enough to utilize the skills of Joey Galloway and revive Michael Clayton. He won't be one of the top-20 QB on draft day, but pick him as your backup and watch him become a solid player.