updated keeper rankings -- QB

QB
1. Peyton Manning -- 30 -- he's still the best, even with a shaky RB situation
2. Tom Brady -- 29 -- I'm worried about his WR situation, but he'll find a way
3. Eli Manning -- 25 -- if he gets his completion percentage up to 60%, he could be a superstar
4. Carson Palmer -- 26 -- he's moving well after a horrible knee injury
5. Matt Hasselback -- 31 -- he could be the #2 QB in 2006
6. Michael Vick -- 26 -- he's still 26, and he still runs
7. Donovan McNabb -- 29 -- needs a #1 WR to emerge from the pack
8. Ben Roethlisberger -- 24 -- stay off those bikes, kid
9. Daunte Culpepper -- 29 -- he has a great supporting cast, but he needs good health
10. Marc Bulger -- 29 -- risk or reward... can he stay on the field?
11. Jake Delhomme -- 31 -- watch the camp injury to Steve Smith carefully
12. Kurt Warner -- 35 -- if he can stay behind the wheel, he'll succeed
13. Byron Leftwich -- 26 -- Matt Jones is emerging as a star, and that can't hurt
14. Drew Brees -- 27 -- numbers slipped in 2005, and he doesn't have a stud WR
15. Aaron Brooks -- 30 -- he's worth a chance this year
16. Jake Plummer -- 31 -- Cutler won't push him until 2007
17. Drew Bledsoe -- 34 -- not a great keeper pick, but you'll love him this year
18. David Carr -- 27 -- I can't see him improving until the line does
19. Matt Leinart -- 23 -- he's in a great situation... now needs the keys to the Vette
20. Trent Green -- 36 -- 4000+ yards in the last three years... it won't be four
21. Alex Smith -- 22 -- if the 49ers retool, he'll be a stud in three years
22. Brett Favre -- 37 -- only playing to catch Marino now

23. Jay Cutler -- 23 -- he has a chance to be a superstar soon

24. Vince Young -- 23 -- 2007 starter for sure, maybe more

25. J.P. Losman -- 25 -- I still like his long term potential, but he might not have a job soon
26. Chad Pennington -- 30 -- If he's your starter, you are in trouble
27. Jon Kitna -- 34 -- Mike Martz might turn Kitna into a magician
28. Philip Rivers -- 24 -- has the tools and the toys
29. Rex Grossman -- 26 -- he could be a good QB2 in 2006
30. Charlie Frye -- 25 -- just lost Bentley and won't get Edwards back until week 7
31. Chris Simms -- 26 -- Gruden likes to run, and Simms is a QB
32. Mark Brunell -- 36 -- horrible keeper pick who might do well in 2006
33. Steve McNair -- 33 -- has been questionable or worse in 28 of his last 48 games
34. Brad Johnson -- 38 -- too old for keeper and not good enough for this year
35. Billy Volek -- 30 -- he could be a stud before Young takes over
36. Josh McCown -- 27 -- he puts up numbers when called upon
37. David Garrard -- 28 -- his running numbers pad his stats

38. Matt Schaub -- 25 -- will the Falcons give up on Vick?

39. Kyle Boller -- 25 -- will get a chance when McNair goes down
40. Brodie Croyle -- 23 -- might push Trent Green in 2007
41. Brian Griese -- 31 -- could be productive in an anemic Bears offense
42. Patrick Ramsey -- 27 -- backup to Pennington, which means he'll find the field
43. Kelly Holcomb -- 33 -- could be starting, but the Bills are awful
44. Joey Harrington -- 28 -- change of scenery good for him?
45. Jeff Garcia -- 36 -- he can still produce in spurts
46. Gus Frerotte -- 35 -- pass
47. Aaron Rodgers -- 22 -- has to wait another year
48. Tony Romo -- 26 -- Romo has a good arm and is waiting for a Bledsoe injury
49. Anthony Wright -- 30 -- watch him closely if Carson Palmer isn't ready
50. Jim Sorgi -- 25 -- best week 17 quarterback every year

Reggie Arrives

The New Orleans Saints and Reggie Bush have agreed to a six-year deal that will pay the rookie RB nearly $27 million in guaranteed cash, and could be worth as much as $60 million over the life of the contract.

This squashes rumors that Bush was going to sit out the 2006 season and enter the 2007 NFL draft with hopes of being drafted by a team that would agree to his monetary needs. Bush never spoke about this rumor, but most people figured that he'd sign soon enough as not to miss any time.

It will be interesting to see what kind of playing time Bush receives. The knee of Deuce McAllister will be the main determining factor. If Deuce is healthy, the two could split carries this season, and Bush would take the role in '07. I'd have to believe that Deuce would play enough to show he still has some gas in the tank... the Saints would want to exhibit his trade potential.

Either way, Bush is in camp... stay tuned to that position battle.

LeCharles Bentley injured

The first major injury has come over the camp wire, and it has more fantasy effect than you think.

Browns starting center LeCharles Bentley tore his patellar tendon during the team's first 11-on-11 drill at camp, potentially ending his season. Bentley signed with Cleveland in the offseason, and was excited about playing in his hometown.

The fantasy value of Reuben Droughns is thrown into question. He had a good 2005 season on the ground, racking up 1262 yards and catching 39 passes. The Browns worked hard to get him a better line to improve upon his 2005 total of two touchdowns. By trading Jeff Faine on draft day, the Browns are left with a large hole in the center of the line. They will be trying to pick up a center from free agency to fill the void.

Droughns isn't a top-20 RB this season, but his value might have slipped even farther down the list. If the Browns can keep their offense healthy, Droughns has a chance at 1200 yards again, but it isn't likely. He's a good RB2 in a deep league, but otherwise is not worth too much.

Brown asks for trade

Titans RB Chris Brown requested a trade in a letter written to the team on July 17. Heading into the final year of his contract, Brown believes that he'd be better served with another team. "We feel there are a number of other places that would provide a significantly better fit as Chris heads into this contract year," said his agent, Ryan Morgan.

Since there are very few teams looking to acquire a starting RB, Brown's options might be thin. One possibility is the Jets, who have an ancient Curtis Martin and second-year back Cedric Houston listed as their #1 and #2.

I'm tired of players demanding trades without doing a little homework. Where could Brown go right now and become a starter? There are only a handful of teams, none of which offer the offensive potential of the Titans. With Billy Volek and Vince Young throwing to a good receiving corps, Tennessee could be a surprise team this year. While the backfield seems crowded, if Brown was so good, why couldn't he hold off LenDale White?

I say shut up and honor your contract.

best value -- WR

Several big name receivers changed teams in the offseason, including Terrell Owens to the Cowboys and Javon Walker to Denver. Neither guy will be on this list, which highlights the best value picks. Somebody will take Walker too high without thinking of the effects of a major knee injury. Owens is a special player when on the field, but not worth the high pick due to risk of idiotic behavior. These guys are worth the risk.

1. Reggie Brown -- Philadelphia Eagles -- With Owens off to Dallas, Brown steps in as the #1 target of a healthy Donovan McNabb. He had a decent rookie season, racking up 69 or more yards in five of his last eight games, and scored four TD over that span. Second-year WR usually have a mild statistical bump, and Brown could get to 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. He's a nice value pick about 25-30 WR into the draft.

2. Muhsin Muhammad -- Chicago Bears -- I know that he's 33 and coming off a bad season, but Muhammad is still the clear #1 target in Chicago. The Bears had a terrible offense last season, but if Rex Grossman gets hurt this year, they have Brian Griese to fall back on. Even with the putrid numbers offered by the Bears passing game, Muhammad still caught 64 passes in 14 games. Look for that number to increase to 80, and pick him after about 30 WR have been selected.

3. Randy Moss -- Oakland Raiders -- It's strange to list him here, but Moss had a bad 2005 season and still ended up with 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. He has a new chucker in Aaron Brooks, and he should be injury-free. Since I don't envision LaMont Jordan catching 70 passes again, Moss could return to 85-1300-11, making him a top-5 WR. Somebody will probably pick him too high, but if he falls out of the top-35 overall, grab him if you can.

4. Antonio Bryant -- San Francisco 49ers -- The 49ers offense is rebuilding around Alex Smith, and Bryant will be his primary target this year. He's coming off a 1000 yard season, and he's been improving his game every year. Bryant loses points for being with a team that nearly had the worst offense in NFL history last season, but with Vernon Davis and another year of experience for Smith, Bryant could surprise people now. Pick him up if 35 WR are gone and you need a WR3.

5. Troy Williamson -- Minnesota Vikings -- Williamson can fly, as evidenced by his receptions last year of 56, 53 and 36 yards... now he needs someone to throw to him. If Brad Johnson stays healthy, Williamson could enjoy a stellar sophomore season in the NFL. He's already the best receiver on the roster, and he can take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Williamson hasn't been one of the top-40 WR drafted on any board I've seen, making him a great value pick.

best value -- RB

Even though running back is the most scarce of the fantasy positions, there are still good value buys late in drafts. Several of the big name RB have missed time due to injury, and their backups have won games for studious fantasy owners. While some choose to draft the second string back to their starter, others select young reserves waiting for a chance. Here are the best buys at RB, regardless of status.

1. LenDale White -- Tennessee Titans -- People have knocked his work ethic, his weight, his drive... but nobody questions his talent. At the worst, he'll be the short-yardage back, and he might take the starting job if Chris Brown is injured or ineffective. With Vince Young and White, the Titans offense should have two stud performers for several years. White will fall 40+ backs into a traditional draft, but in keeper leagues you should draft him no later than the 30-35 range, and in the top-100 overall.

2. Kevin Jones -- Detroit Lions -- After rushing for more than 900 yards in his last eight games of 2004, many people had Jones pegged as the next franchise fantasy back. Wow, was that a mistake. Jones flopped terribly, finishing '05 with only 664 yards and never reaching 100 in a single week. He converted only one out of seven carries from the 1-yard line, and he's not a good receiver. So why is he on this list? The Lions have a new offensive guru in Mike Martz and have upgraded the QB situation. Jones should finally be healthy, and he won't be pushed by rookie Brian Calhoun just yet. You'll be able to pick up Jones about 20 backs into the draft, and that's a great gamble.

3. Chris Perry -- Cincinnati Bengals -- Rudi Johnson doesn't miss much time, but Perry has already carved his niche as the third down receiving back. Perry caught 51 passes last year in limited time. He's not as big as Johnson, but he's quicker and can take it to the house every time he touches the ball. If Johnson gets injured, Perry would step in as a top-15 RB. That's unlikely to happen, so pick Perry as one of the first reserves and hope that he gets a chance.

4. Cedric Benson -- Chicago Bears -- The Bears gave Benson a large contract and expected him to give large contributions in 2005. The problem? Thomas Jones was busy having a career year, compiling almost 1500 total yards and nine touchdowns. Benson might not start the season as the #1 guy, but by midseason he'll be a fantasy stud. The Bears have no passing offense to speak of, but that didn't stop Jones last year. Benson will fall at least 30 RB into the draft, and anytime after that would be a great time to steal him.

5. The 3rd overall pick -- Whoever ends up with the 3rd pick in your draft automatically has the best value pick of the first round. Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander are locks to fill the first three spots, but their position will be argued until draft night. Drafting any one of them makes your team a force to start the night, but the owner sitting on #3 is the winner of this situation. He has no pressure, as he'll draft whoever is left of the big three, and he'll get a player who would be drafted #1 in any other season. If you draw #3, you're in great shape.

best value -- QB

There are several players each year who prove to be worth much more than the slot they were drafted in. Quarterbacks are the most difficult to project, as they get injured more than any other position. There aren't many QB changes in the middle of the season without an injury to the starter, so here are the guys who will prove to be a good value if they stay healthy.

1. Carson Palmer -- Cincinnati Bengals -- His knee injury is the only reason he lands on this list. Many drafters are listing Tom Brady, Matt Hasselback and even Donovan McNabb in front of Palmer, but none of them are larger fantasy threats. Even if Palmer's knee isn't 100% to start the season, he'll be full strength for the second half and the fantasy playoffs and with Chad Johnson and Rudi Johnson on his side, he'll be a superstar again. If he's still on the board after 40 players are gone, make him your next pick.

2. Jake Delhomme -- Carolina Panthers -- He seems to slip through the cracks while owners focus on bigger names, but Delhomme has averaged more than 3500 yards and 24 TD passes over the last three seasons. With Carolina adding Keyshawn Johnson to pull attention away from Steve Smith, and DeAngelo Williams to make a solid backfield, Delhomme should produce another season of similar numbers. If 9-12 QB are drafted and Delhomme is still available, he's a huge steal.

3. Billy Volek -- Tennessee Titans -- With all eyes on Vince Young, people forget that it's Volek who will start the season as the #1 QB in the Music City. In his 517 career attempts, which is a full season's worth of passes, he's thrown for 3505 yards and 26 touchdowns. He should hold off Young for quite some time, and might even play out the season. The Titans have many good players on offense, including receivers Drew Bennett, David Givens and Tyrone Calico. Volek probably won't be one of the first 25 QB picked, so scoop him up as an inexpensive #2 and you'll be happy.

4. Aaron Brooks -- Oakland Raiders -- I know you hate him, and after last season, you have the right to... but don't hold a grudge. Brooks signed with the Raiders, giving him a fresh start with an offense featuring two superstars in Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan. Brooks had thrown for more than 3500 yards and 20 TD in each season between 2001-04, so success hasn't disappeared into the sunset yet. He's only 30, and has scored 10 rushing TD in the last four seasons. If you can look past 2005 and pick him up about 15-18 QB into the draft, you'll be rewarded deeply.

5. Josh McCown -- Detroit Lions -- He'll probably begin the year behind Jon Kitna, but don't forget about McCown. His career numbers don't support it, but McCown can do a lot of damage if given the chance. In six starts last year, he compiled 1675 yards and nine touchdown passes. Over a full season, that equates to 4400-22. With Kevin Jones and a trio of top WR at his disposal, McCown just needs to crack the lineup. While he won't be drafted in most leagues, keep an eye on the situation in Detroit, and if Kitna falters, jump on McCown immediately.

most overrated -- WR

The big names like Moss, Owens and Harrison have been replaced by Smith, Johnson and Fitzgerald. The veterans are beginning to move aside to the youth movement. There seems to be a growing gap between the elite WR and the middle of the pack. The problem is that nobody knows which WR will emerge as a star year to year. Last year, it was Steve Smith, who came off a major injury to lead many owners to titles. Who will it be in 2006? Not these guys...

1. Marvin Harrison -- Indianapolis Colts -- You're probably wondering how I can include a guy who has produced 1100+ yards and 10+ TD for the last seven seasons. My logic is simple. Harrison's receptions have declined for three straight seasons, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he didn't lead the team in catches. Reggie Wayne is younger and bigger, and will become Peyton Manning's favorite target this year. Harrison has been among the top-6 WR selected for a long time -- this is the year to break that trend.

2. Santana Moss -- Washington Redskins -- The huge numbers that Moss put up in 2005 (84-1483-9) were a direct result of Mark Brunell's fantastic season. Since Brunell isn't likely to go off again, everyone suffers. Keep in mind that Moss was coming of a season of 45-838-5 with the Jets. I have a hard time trusting Moss to repeat last season, but he could fall somewhere in between '04 and '05. If that's worth a top-10 pick to you, go crazy... but it isn't to me.

3. Laveranues Coles -- New York Jets -- He's following the Derrick Mason career path perfectly. Coles has caught 334 passes over the last four seasons, but has only scored 17 times. His big play ability has vanished, and the quarterback situation in Jetland doesn't bode well for receivers. He's durable and works hard, but I've yet to see a league reward those two traits. Someone will draft him too high because they figure he has to put up a 10+ TD season soon. They are wrong.

4. David Givens -- Tennessee Titans -- Givens has been a solid performer for the last two seasons, but when the Titans gave him a five-year contract, the fantasy world anointed him as a player to watch. Don't watch too closely. Givens doesn't do anything great, and his fantasy numbers won't approach elite status as long as he's being pushed by Brandon Jones and Tyrone Calico, both of whom are younger and bigger. This won't be the year to stock up on Titans.

5. Anyone from Detroit -- Roy Williams is the only one who has had success in the past, as he's caught 16 TD in his first two years in the league... but he's a jerk, and can't stay healthy for an entire season. Neither can Charles Rogers, who has played 15 games in three seasons. Mike Williams is interesting, but he didn't look good as a rookie and he'll be fighting for playing time. You can forget about Corey Bradford or Mike Furrey.

most overrated -- RB

There aren't many RB that didn't have their situation altered in some way during the offseason. Several top backs lost key members of their offense or changed teams, and others had off-field problems. Don't make the mistake of drafting a player because of his name or recent history. Do the homework and find the bargain buys. These guys are not the bargain buys.

1. Tiki Barber -- New York Giants -- He was one of my bust picks last year, and he produced one of the best yardage seasons in NFL history. That means he'll automatically be ranked too high. He's 31 now, and his workload has increased each of the last three seasons, including 411 touches last year. That's too many for an older back, and this is the year he starts to break down. Many publications have him as the #4 or #5 overall player... I think you can do better by trading down for more value.

2. Corey Dillon -- New England Patriots -- Dillon turned in a good season last year when he was on the field, scoring 12 TD in 12 games. His overall fantasy numbers looked good, but they masked the truth. He averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and his effectiveness in short yardage situations declined. The Pats drafted Laurence Maroney to take his place, and that might happen this year. Dillon will still be the goal line back, but if you are looking for a good starter, look somewhere else. If you do pick Dillon, make sure to back him up with Maroney.

3. Ron Dayne -- Denver Broncos -- Mike Shanahan says that Dayne is his #1 guy right now. Don't believe that will last long. Dayne hasn't made a habit of being very good, and his 3.7 yards per carry career average won't cut it in Denver. With Tatum Bell waiting to erupt as a superstar, I can't see how Shanahan will give more than 5-10 carries per game to Dayne. That being said, it is Denver, and anything can happen...

4. T.J. Duckett -- Atlanta Falcons -- With any luck, the Falcons will trade Duckett to someone who can give him more carries. He has a terrible yards per carry average, and he's not good catching passes out of the backfield. He does have 31 career TD in 54 games, but someone always looks at his freakish body and touchdown totals and picks him too high. Usually I'm that person, but not this year. With draft pick Jerious Norwood on board, and Warrick Dunn signed to an extension, Duckett's role appears to be diminishing. Draft him late and hope he gets dealt.

5. Willis McGahee -- Buffalo Bills -- It's hard to put him here, seeing that he's rushed for almost 2400 yards in his first two seasons. I just don't like what Buffalo is doing on the offensive side of the ball. They had a chance to get a better WR to complement Lee Evans, and ended up with Peerless Price. Unless this is 2002 all over again, the Price thing won't be too successful. With problems at QB and an average offensive line, McGahee's numbers could plateau at about 1400-1500 total yards and 6-8 TD. That's not too bad, but he's not a top-10 choice with those numbers. If he's your RB1, make sure your #2 is strong.